[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'W')hat a nit-picker, you are.

[zeke]

you could say that oil didn't cause suburbia, but it certainly facilitated it.

oil facilitated a LOT of things, including an economy based more and more on borrowing from the future. as long as you have a steady supply of cheap energy to power it all, and a healthy consumer sector to keep the cash flow going, everything's great.

but when one of the foundational components in that rig starts to falter, the whole pile begins to go.

but then we all know that peak oil doesn't mean out of oil, and we know that you don't have to run out of oil to have serious problems.

z

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')In the years following WWII and through the 20's,

[NeegerJim]

US peak oil may have had a part in the econolypse. How much money have we shipped overseas since oil peaked in the US and/or we started importing? Perhaps not enough to make any sort of significant impact, but I'm not up to speed on that.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')In the years following WWII and through the 20's,

[Revi]

Oil had everything to do with it. Remember that we are "consumers". We consume things, including oil.

I think that the peak of oil production was the trigger event that caused the financial collapse 2 years later.

[ROCKMAN]

Perhaps we need to consolidate our thought on the sequence of events which have led to the current overall financial crisis. here is no debate over the direct cause of the crisis: the collapse of the home mortgage system. The banks and financial institutions, including Fannie and Freddie, were crippled by the increasing defaults on home mortgage. This was amplified with the mortgage derivatives. The economy continues to worsen as mortgage defaults increase. In turn, this collapse has put great pressure on the entire debt system.

Now let’s look at what led to this state. That’s an easy one too: very laxed lending standards. And what was the motivation for the gov’t to change the rules to allow such lending: home construction and acquisition has led economic growth for many years. Granted we’re well into personal speculation on the motives of numerous third parties. But IMO this is where PO has been an underlying factor to our current mess.
Others here have pointed out the link between economic growth and energy consumption. Others have clearly shown the links between the increasing cost of energy over a number of years and the negative impact it would have had on growth. This brings us back to one of our favorite terms: sustainability. With the inevitable increase in import costs as we moved closer to PO the politicians recognized the need to stimulate growth. I doubt many of those same politician recognized the link but they did know that their reelections, to some degree, required a growing economy so they did what was in the power: increase national debt load.

Thus, in terms of the long cycle, I think the approach of PO laid the framework for the changes in gov’t policy which led to the very rapid expansion of risky debt. Certainly increased energy costs over the last few years did put pressure upon home owners who had been just able to meet their obligations. But the underlying basis for the credit expansion was deeply flawed by any measure. Most are familiar with the concept of a “force multiplier”. We can debate the chicken and egg argument till the cows come home but I think it’s easier to recognize the distinction between immediate short term causes (mortgage collapse) and the underlying long term factors (unsustainable growth due to PO).

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'O')il had everything to do with it. Remember that we are "consumers". We consume things, including oil.

[zeke]

our oil consumption and our greed are the same thing!

good gravy, there is SUCH a disconnect from oil and how we use it..you'd think that oil was a tiny incidental detail in the entire industrial reality...that it could just as easily be sand or marshmallows.

People...understand one thing if you don't understand anything else: without cheap plentiful oil, the modern world as it exists today would not have been possible, save on the sheets of foolscap on Jules Verne's writing desk.

z

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zeke', 'o')ur oil consumption and our greed are the same thing!

[dohboi]

Using a term like "greed" is just too simplistic, IMVHO.

Greed was recognized as a component of human nature long ago, and has been seen as a human impulse that must be controlled by traditional ethical systems--it was after all one of the seven deadly sins.

It is only with the introduction of capitalism that it came to be seen as a positive force for the common good (though usually other terms were used such as 'entrepreneurism'...). The wider and wider acceptance of this kind of systemic and self-justified greed ideology corresponded to the greater and greater use of fossil fuels.

I would opine that this correspondence was not accidental--one justified the other.

So I'm agreeing with zeke, I think. And also with jb, in a way. But you have to go beyond simple greed of individuals to see how it became a system of greed in tandem with exponential growth in resource expansion over the last 100+ years.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', 'O')ur greed would have “doomed” us, PO or no PO.

[ROCKMAN]

I agree with dohboi. The term greed is loaded with judgment. Does anyone here want the their children to not have at least a good life as their parents gave had? Is that greed? The vast majority of the world lives substandard to the average poor individual in the US. Does anyone here admit that they've taken more from Mother Earth than a reasonable amount? By their measure, of course, and not that of some poor African farmer surviving on 300 calories a day. Another simplistic mantra is that one man's greed is another man's ambition.

But I think we're all pretty much talking about the same thing: power. Since the dawn of civilization man has competed with one another for resources. And the winners have gained more then just a resource....they gained power over others. Our use of hydrocarbons has often been used for the betterment of society. Most don't understand that the discovery of the giant East Texas oil field in the 30’s was a major contributor to winning WWII. But such power has not always been used so righteously. It's also been used to fuel colonializaton as well as other less then noble adventures.

With that point in mind consider where we hope we might be going with alternatives. On the surface such efforts are promoted to improve the ecology of the globe while also lessening the potential strife over a diminishing resource. But alts are but one more resource. Consider that we my just be substituting one power gaining weapon for another. IMO it’s not likely that the development of alt energy will be anymore equally distributed then oil generated power has been. Has man made an evolutionary step change in the last few decades that I didn’t notice? Are we no less motivated by the same factors then we were 30 years ago. Alt energy development may be better for Mother Earth but how will it effect mankind? Any differently then our exploitation of hydrocarbons?

Just an odd thought which popped to mind this afternoon.

[zeke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zeke', 'o')ur oil consumption and our greed are the same thing!

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', '
')It is only with the introduction of capitalism that it came to be seen as a positive force for the common good (though usually other terms were used such as 'entrepreneurism'...).

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I') agree with dohboi. The term greed is loaded with judgment. Does anyone here want the their children to not have at least a good life as their parents gave had? Is that greed?

[zeke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I') agree with dohboi. The term greed is loaded with judgment. Does anyone here want the their children to not have at least a good life as their parents gave had? Is that greed?