$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', 'M')y best prediction, using my Geology degree (paleo-climatology, etc.) and other science classes that I took, is that climate change is going to accentuate the severity of historical weather patterns. Drier regions will get drier, wetter years will get wetter, etc. We in Central Texas are in a transition zone, between wetter coastal regions and the drier interior, so we will see the effect of both drier and wetter extremes, depending on which is dominant at the time.
Last year (record rain and floods) and this year (scant rain at all) are not that unexpected when using this model. I think that we will have to be able to weather long drought and intense rainy periods in the future if we want to prosper in this area. Luckily we are not in extremely close proximity to the violent Gulf of Mexico, but close enough to get adequate humidity from it and the resultant rainfall over the long term.
Another effect of climate change towards a hot house environment is that the tropical latitude bands are going to expand away from the equator. So the tropical weather patterns and rainfall that they bring are going to move farther northwards into the USA, making it slightly more tropical in the southern states.
PeakOil is You
PeakOiler's Grass Fire Pics
Re: PeakOiler's Grass Fire Pics
by PeakOiler » Mon 29 Dec 2008, 22:21:14
I hope your prediction is right, but I still think we're talking decades, not years, if at all.
Nuclear winter could change all that.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.
--Colin Campbell
--Colin Campbell
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PeakOiler - Intermediate Crude
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Re: PeakOiler's Grass Fire Pics
by Jotapay » Tue 30 Dec 2008, 00:56:59
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', 'I') hope your prediction is right, but I still think we're talking decades, not years, if at all. Nuclear winter could change all that.
Yes, I don't care to place a precise time frame on it since that is impossible to do with any precision.
But the hot-house trend in which we find ourselves is undeniable. It started 11,00 years ago at the peak of the last ice age.
In my opinion, we are starting to see the effect of human-induced climate change in a very pronounced way. The "if at all" part has already begun. It won't happen all at once, but my best guess is that 50-120 years from now all the ice on the poles and most of the world's glaciers will be gone.
Scientific aside: The scary thing is, if we keep adding greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere once the maximum historical hothouse environment has been achieved (no polar icecaps, jungles everywhere), what do you think will happen then? You can't just keep adding heat to the world and expect it not to turn into Mars.
edit: You have a electron microscope image of a pollen or sand grain as your avatar. You are a scientist or an engineer, no?
As one of my last hurrahs at the Uni of Texas, I worked for a legendary professor there, as his slave, more or less. I was able to work on the UT Geology department's electron microscope and worked on nannobacteria (sic) and such. Those were some of the most valuable experiences I've had in my life, bar none.
Last edited by Jotapay on Wed 31 Dec 2008, 11:48:50, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: PeakOiler's Grass Fire Pics
by PeakOiler » Wed 31 Dec 2008, 09:07:33
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', '
')edit: You have a electron microscope image of a pollen or sand grain as your avatar. You are a scientist or an engineer, no?
As one of my last hurrahs at the Uni of Texas, I worked for a legendary professor there, as his slave, more or less. I was able to work on the UT Geology department's electron microscope and worked on nannobacteria (sic) and such. Those were some of the most valuable experiences I've had in my life, bar none.
')edit: You have a electron microscope image of a pollen or sand grain as your avatar. You are a scientist or an engineer, no?
As one of my last hurrahs at the Uni of Texas, I worked for a legendary professor there, as his slave, more or less. I was able to work on the UT Geology department's electron microscope and worked on nannobacteria (sic) and such. Those were some of the most valuable experiences I've had in my life, bar none.
Very good guess Jotapay. Answer here: About my avatar
Our lab is about to get a new SEM. The images will be much better than with that old 1994 TopCon SEM.
<--environmental chemist, B.Sc. in Chemistry, UT @ Austin, 1987
The brush piles are still smoldering...
Last edited by PeakOiler on Wed 31 Dec 2008, 16:08:53, edited 1 time in total.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.
--Colin Campbell
--Colin Campbell
-
PeakOiler - Intermediate Crude
- Posts: 3664
- Joined: Thu 18 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
- Location: Central Texas
Re: PeakOiler's Grass Fire Pics
by Ludi » Wed 31 Dec 2008, 11:28:08
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '
')I hope your prediction is right, but I still think we're talking decades, not years, if at all.
')I hope your prediction is right, but I still think we're talking decades, not years, if at all.
Jotapay's prediction is in line with the "official" predictions for our region (I'll find a link if you need one). More extremes in this land of extremes.
Back to fires: it never hurts to repost these links
http://www.firesafecouncil.org/education/landscaping/
http://www.usfa.dhs.gov/downloads/pdf/fswy12.pdf
- Ludi
