[patience]

The Fed's next act is "Quantitative Easing", they say.

Quantitative easing: Fail (Ticker Forum)

We have been on a credit binge for too long, and to quote Karl D., "You can't solve a drunk's acoholism with a bottle of whiskey."

They are just trying to buy time and praying for miraculous expansion. Ain't gonna happen. There are several roads to where we are going, but they all end the same place, a drastically shrunken economy. With the Fed's track record, I'm betting that they follow Ben's thesis and print us into oblivion. Deflation first, until it runs its' course, then Weimar. It seems to be all they know.

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'S')o, if US Treasuries go in the tank, and I'm convinced they will, what's next?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kmann', ' ') Depression (or threat of depression) would be a likely precondition to Weimar type inflation.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', ' ') You could only create another Bubble if there remained integrity to the system of Bubble creation. The issue here is that the very organizations that created such bubbles, the big Investment Banking houses have all pretty much gone the way of the Dinosaur already. The financial instruments they created to perpetuate each of these bubbles since Bretton Woods are ALL collapsing.

[BlueGhostNo2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kmann', ' ') Depression (or threat of depression) would be a likely precondition to Weimar type inflation.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlueGhostNo2', ' ') Thing is tho monte they didn't just have bad fiscal policy, they had TERRIBLE fiscal policy, they actually had the ability to claim that the hyper-inflation wasn't going to end badly and wasn't their fault.

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'J')ust sit back and watch. It won't be long.

[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlueGhostNo2', 'O')ne things for sure tho, if we don't get some serious new energy generating technology online asap, we're in deep doodoo.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'I')'m not convinced yet this is going to last long enough for Weimar Inflation.

[Nicholai]

I seriously need to stop reading from this forum. It's killing me.

[RedStateGreen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'I') think they will make an attempt to make an inventory of assets in any country that will sign on to their currency. This would account for all actual production estimated possible in the country of anything from oil to food to minerals to lumber. Then they can set all the balance sheets to Zero, and issue each nation an amount of the new currency commensurate with estimated assets. Its the equivalent of giving every German 60 deutchmarks after the war to get started.

[Snowrunner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'I')'d look for continued hyper-deflation next year until we are in deep misery, and in 2010 the announcement of an agreement to sign up with some currency scheme promoted by some faction of the IMF.Wanna make a Gentleman's Bet Monte? Weimar Inflation versus a New Monetary Sytem?

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')anna make a Gentleman's Bet Monte? Weimar Inflation versus a New Monetary System?

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snowrunner', 'I') was thinking about this as well. The problem with a new monetary system is who would "own" it?
I guess a global re-set and currency would be a "logic step", but I think it will fail out of the same reason as the UN: Nobody wants to give up power.
The US doesn't have the power to force anybody to accept their plan and the Euro is probably looking mighty fine.
It comes, in my opinion, down to what the rest of the world wants to do with the US. They can easily decide to cut their losses, agree on the Euro (which is somewhat the logical choice as it isn't beholden by a single country) and let the US sink or swim on it's own.
If we are expecting deflation, war and all the other things that go with it, chances are very good that the outcome is just that. A "reset", as tempting as it may be, is in my opinion not very likely, at least not on a global scale with one currency taking the reign afterward.

[oowolf]

OK, we're obviously into the "slide" period of the crash. I'd like to see some potential scenarios as to how the next phase plays out.
The present pathetic attempt to inflate another bubble isn't going to work. What can we expect in the next few months? What to look for? Are we going to have decades of this meltdown, or is there a crisis bomb waiting around the corner? What the Hell is it going to take to create that final loss of confidence that will set off the dollar's utter collapse?
I tend to favor Roubini and Taleb although I don't understand their "science".

This is not meant as a challenge to anyone's prescience or pet conspiracy theories--but rather a prediction based on a knowledge of previous financial collapses.

I presume the massive decline in shipping tonnage implies increased volatility in commodities from here on down.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oowolf', 'O')K, we're obviously into the "slide" period of the crash. I'd like to see some potential scenarios as to how the next phase plays out.
The present pathetic attempt to inflate another bubble isn't going to work. What can we expect in the next few months? What to look for? Are we going to have decades of this meltdown, or is there a crisis bomb waiting around the corner? What the Hell is it going to take to create that final loss of confidence that will set off the dollar's utter collapse?
I tend to favor Roubini and Taleb although I don't understand their "science".
This is not meant as a challenge to anyone's prescience or pet conspiracy theories--but rather a prediction based on a knowledge of previous financial collapses.
I presume the massive decline in shipping tonnage implies increased volatility in commodities from here on down.

[shortonoil]

snowrunner said:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') was thinking about this as well. The problem with a new monetary system is who would "own" it?

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')uote="snowrunner"]I was thinking about this as well. The problem with a new monetary system is who would "own" it?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', ' ') That's why I made it a "Gentleman's Bet" for no money. Just bragging rights who got it closer to right in the Bold Predictions area

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'M')y bad. Wasn't paying attention. Perhaps hyperinflation, collapse of the dollar as the world's reserve currency replaced by the euro or a basket of currencies or a new, agreed upon, one?