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The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 15:05:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 's')o I don't think we're going to see the end of global shipping.
I didn't say that. This is the kind of crass comment we expect from CERA, not you.
I never said you said that. I'm the only one who said that. :?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I')'m sure shipping could be made more efficient but do you think sailing ships will be able to support the level of global trade we have now?
Why not? In terms of using only wind power, I suppose we could ship the same number of ton-miles/year if we increased the fleet size proportionally to the reduction in average speed.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 21:04:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'T')he airlines are on a very short list of bailout candidates after the banks and car companies. Mark my words.

3 airplanes slammed into some buildings 7 years ago. The airlines were bailed out, they went bankrupt, they complained and broke union contracts.
Imagine that...and they didn't even have a post peak oil price collapse to blame it on!
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 18 Dec 2008, 01:47:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'T')he airlines are on a very short list of bailout candidates after the banks and car companies. Mark my words.

3 airplanes slammed into some buildings 7 years ago. The airlines were bailed out, they went bankrupt, they complained and broke union contracts.
Imagine that...and they didn't even have a post peak oil price collapse to blame it on!


Jet fuel cost runups from 2006 up until this summer spelled a death knell for most of the industry. We are extremely lucky that prices have collapsed so much this year. You do not understand the impact that fuel was having on the industry. Massive schedule reductions are underway now due to the fuel problem. It's only serendipitous that we need them now also due to the economic slowdown.

You need to stop kidding yourself about whats happened to this industry. I've been living it every day. 9/11 was merely the straw that broke the camels back to an otherwise flailing industry constrained by overcapacity and rising fuel costs.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 18 Dec 2008, 01:52:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I')'m sure shipping could be made more efficient but do you think sailing ships will be able to support the level of global trade we have now?
Why not? In terms of using only wind power, I suppose we could ship the same number of ton-miles/year if we increased the fleet size proportionally to the reduction in average speed.

IMHO, when it comes to global trade, we're more likely to see huge nuclear powered freight ships then a return to 18th century style wind-powered ships.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby TonyPrep » Thu 18 Dec 2008, 05:49:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I')'m sure shipping could be made more efficient but do you think sailing ships will be able to support the level of global trade we have now?
Why not? In terms of using only wind power, I suppose we could ship the same number of ton-miles/year if we increased the fleet size proportionally to the reduction in average speed.
IMHO, when it comes to global trade, we're more likely to see huge nuclear powered freight ships then a return to 18th century style wind-powered ships.

So neither is likely.
There will be no nuclear powered freight ships sailing to New Zealand, that's for (almost) sure.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby shortonsense » Thu 18 Dec 2008, 10:30:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'Y')ou do not understand the impact that fuel was having on the industry.

This is po.com, not bummerforairlines.com
I don't CARE what impacts fuel costs have on airlines, if they had EVER had a successful business model they wouldn't need so much government intervention, they wouldn't be going bankrupt all the time ( where is Pan-Am now adays? ) and complaining about how rough their business is.

Their business isn't rough, they just refuse to make flying as expensive as it should be, if viewed on an energy-use or CO2 making basis.

Monte considered them a canary in a mine, and they certainly are still here, still complaining, still going bankrupt, and we went right through "no-more cheap oil" into "gee its cheap again" so fast it makes any decent peakers head spin.

On the positive side, as oil price stabilizes, we can reuse all the same chicken little arguements all over again as the price, and production rate, recover. Canary In A Coal Mine II as it were.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'Y')ou need to stop kidding yourself about whats happened to this industry. I've been living it every day. 9/11 was merely the straw that broke the camels back to an otherwise flailing industry constrained by overcapacity and rising fuel costs.

Are you still employed in the industry? If the answer is yes, then my point on the canary not being dead yet is apropo.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby yesplease » Thu 18 Dec 2008, 10:39:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'T')here will be no nuclear powered freight ships sailing to New Zealand, that's for (almost) sure.
How so?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby TonyPrep » Thu 18 Dec 2008, 14:11:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'T')here will be no nuclear powered freight ships sailing to New Zealand, that's for (almost) sure.
How so?
New Zealand has a non-nuclear policy. That includes not allowing nuclear powered ships in its waters. This has caused friction, in the past, with the US over its naval vessels.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 18 Dec 2008, 14:19:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'A')re you still employed in the industry? If the answer is yes, then my point on the canary not being dead yet is apropo.

Stop confusing people with facts.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby yesplease » Thu 18 Dec 2008, 16:02:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'N')ew Zealand has a non-nuclear policy. That includes not allowing nuclear powered ships in its waters. This has caused friction, in the past, with the US over its naval vessels.
Interesting. I wonder how well that'll hold up over the next hundred years or so.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby TonyPrep » Thu 18 Dec 2008, 19:42:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'N')ew Zealand has a non-nuclear policy. That includes not allowing nuclear powered ships in its waters. This has caused friction, in the past, with the US over its naval vessels.
Interesting. I wonder how well that'll hold up over the next hundred years or so.
Indeed. The new government may alter that status but it's unlikely to do so for the next 3 years. If it gets in again, who knows, but if the policy doesn't change over the next 5 or 10 years, I don't think it'll ever change.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 18 Dec 2008, 23:01:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '.').. if the policy doesn't change over the next 5 or 10 years, I don't think it'll ever change.


So New Zealand allows diesel-fired ships with CO2 and dark Carbon pollution now ---and in a post-peak world would allow CO2 belching coal-fired ships to enter its waters, thereby destroying the world through Greenhouse Warming, but NZ wouldn't allow a nuclear ship, with absolutely no CO2 emissions and no effect on Greenhosue Warming.

Sounds like New Zealand doesn't care about CO2 emissions and Greeenhouse Warming.....
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby TonyPrep » Fri 19 Dec 2008, 06:44:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '.').. if the policy doesn't change over the next 5 or 10 years, I don't think it'll ever change.
So New Zealand allows diesel-fired ships with CO2 and dark Carbon pollution now ---and in a post-peak world would allow CO2 belching coal-fired ships to enter its waters, thereby destroying the world through Greenhouse Warming, but NZ wouldn't allow a nuclear ship, with absolutely no CO2 emissions and no effect on Greenhosue Warming.
Sounds like New Zealand doesn't care about CO2 emissions and Greeenhouse Warming.....

Yeah, it may seem that way, but some people do. New Zealand relies on global trade right now, so we can't exactly ban all CO2 belching traffic, since that wouldn't leave much more than a rowing boat.

We did have recent legislation banning new coal fired power stations (nearly 70% of electricity is from renewables), and had planned a big investment in the newly nationalised rail company. But the new government, unfortunately, are starting to overturn those things. The economy is god, despite aggressive sounding targets on CO2 reduction earlier in the year. We also have an emissions trading scheme, but that could also be watered down by the new government.

However, I don't think the nuclear ban will be overturned, as it is almost part of our culture now.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 19 Dec 2008, 13:26:15

New Zealand Annual Electricity Generation, GWh
Year Hydro Thermal Geothermal Wind Total % Renewable
1975 16,497 1,931 1,350 - 20,126 90%
1980 19,171 1,959 1,206 - 22,700 91%
1985 19,511 6,555 1,165 - 27,673 76%
1990 22,953 5,956 2,091 - 31,467 81%
1995 27,259 5,426 2,049 1 35,244 85%
2000 24,387 10,474 2,756 119 38,285 73%
2005 23,099 14,305 3,007 609 41,670 66%


New Zealand currently gets about 60% of its power from Hydro-dams constructed decades ago, and plans to add another 30% from wind, solar and tides to get to 90% renewables in a few more decades.

That, combined with abundant agricultural and marine food resources and low population, might make New Zealand the perfect post-peak oil place to be!
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby TonyPrep » Fri 19 Dec 2008, 17:24:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'N')ew Zealand currently gets about 60% of its power from Hydro-dams constructed decades ago, and plans to add another 30% from wind, solar and tides to get to 90% renewables in a few more decades.
That, combined with abundant agricultural and marine food resources and low population, might make New Zealand the perfect post-peak oil place to be!

Well, I don't know about perfect, but it seems like one of the better options. Unfortunately, our new government has started off very badly, in environmental terms but I suppose if one takes a longer term view, and plans accordingly, it could be pretty nice here, at least in most areas.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby Geodesic » Tue 06 Jan 2009, 16:04:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '
')
And the EIA estimates that consumption is still above production.



Link?
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 06 Jan 2009, 17:16:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geodesic', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'A')nd the EIA estimates that consumption is still above production.

Link?


The latest STEO. New revision due next week.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby misterno » Mon 02 Feb 2009, 23:43:46

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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby yesplease » Tue 03 Feb 2009, 02:28:43

Yuppers. Compared to $100+/bbl, thirty bucks was a steal, and adjusted for the dollar index below even the average over the past decade plus before the price run up, so both refiners and governments filled up while the price was low.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 03 Feb 2009, 14:23:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', '[')url=http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/STEO_Query/steotables.cfm?periodType=Monthly&startYear=2008&startMonth=1&startQuarter=1&endYear=2008&endMonth=12&endQuarter=4&tableNumber=6&noScroll=true]World consumption hit 88.4 in Dec 2008?????[/url]
We'll see what adjustments they make to that estimate, in the next STEO due on the 10th.
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