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the econolypse was NOT caused by peak oil

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Re: the econolpyse was NOT caused by peak oil

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 15:53:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'A')fter pondering over this debate for a few days, I have come to the conclusion that PO most definitely is the culprit for the economy collapsing. When the US was dominating the world in manufacturing and all phases , they were the world's leading oil exporter. This is a fact. The US was a creditor nation and a net oil exporter. Now, after the oil has peaked in the US, look how things have changed. The US is now the most indebted nation in the world. It also imports the most oil in the world. A nation that no longer manufactures things, the US can't rely on borrowing any longer. It is a failed model and we can look back and see this all changed when the US became an oil importing nation. This is not a coincidence.
Again, I disagree. You don't have to have rich deposits of oil to be a major exporter or creditor nation. See Japan. And it's not like we are exporting our manufacturing base to oil rich countries. We exported our manufacturing base to the 2nd largest oil importer in the world. I am not buying any of this weak reasoning that the peak in the US's oil was the reason for the dismantling of the US manufacturing base.



Do you think it is a coincidence that the US was the wealthiest nation in the world when it was the worlds leading oil exporter ?

Do you think it is a coincidence that the US is the most indebted nation in the world while being the worlds largest oil importer ?

You can't see a common theme ?
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Re: the econolpyse was NOT caused by peak oil

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 16:51:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'D')o you think it is a coincidence that the US was the wealthiest nation in the world when it was the worlds leading oil exporter ?
Do you think it is a coincidence that the US is the most indebted nation in the world while being the worlds largest oil importer ?
You can't see a common theme ?
Looking at gross national debt is deceptive. It would be more appropriate to look at: Debt As % of GDP
But yes, the US has became a major debtor nation. The reason is simple, we are living beyond our means. Possessing the world's reserve currency put's us in a unique position to buy goods cheaply from the rest of the world. But it can't go one forever. Sooner or later other nations will be unwilling to continue to lend ever increasing amounts of money to us. But my point is it didn't have to be this way. Other oil importing nations have successfully balanced their trade budgets, or even become net exporters. Also, peak US oil was not responsible for the outsourcing movement.
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: the econolpyse was NOT caused by peak oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 20:53:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'A')s the world's largest manufacturer
Really? The CIA World Fact Book has the US at 21% of GDP being non-services. That's 21% of 14 trillion dollars, which is just under 3 trillion. China's GDP has 60% non-services. That's 60% of 7 trillion dollars, which is 4.2 trillion.
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Re: the econolypse was NOT caused by peak oil

Unread postby Carlhole » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 21:15:06

Seeing through the Myths by Dale Allen Pfeiffer

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dale Allen Pfeiffer', 'P')osted on November 1, 2008

* Introduction
* The War on Terror
* The Surge and Decline of Oil Prices
* The Bailout
* Election 2008


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The Surge and Decline of Oil Prices

All year I have been saying the surge in oil prices was not the result of peak oil. It was the result of market speculation. As such, it is a phenomenon of our economic system. As the real estate bubble burst, investors pulled their money out of real estate backed securities and pumped it into commodities. As a result, the price of oil surged to record highs, along with the price of gold, rice, grain and other commodities.

In late summer, we reached a point where investors felt commodity prices could not sustain their skyrocketing values much longer. Consumption was declining and the economy was falling into a recession. At the same time, the market crash promised that once powerful market entities would soon be available for pennies on the dollar. So investors sold off commodities and banked their profits in bonds while they waited for likely victims.

For consumers, we see a market that is gyrating wildly. By midsummer, the public was having trouble making ends meet as skyrocketing gasoline and diesel prices drove everything else up. In some cases, people could not even afford to go to work.

Now gasoline prices have tumbled to half of what they were only a few months ago. Yet there has been no major change in oil production. There is a lot of talk about price gouging among the oil companies and gas stations. And no doubt some gouging has occurred. The oil majors are reporting the biggest profits ever — profit margins have climbed into the stratosphere. But the major factor that doubled oil prices over the summer and that is now causing prices to deflate is market speculation...
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Re: the econolpyse was NOT caused by peak oil

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 01:30:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'A')s the world's largest manufacturer
Really? The CIA World Fact Book has the US at 21% of GDP being non-services. That's 21% of 14 trillion dollars, which is just under 3 trillion. China's GDP has 60% non-services. That's 60% of 7 trillion dollars, which is 4.2 trillion.
Really! Believe it or not there is more than one non-service sector in those economies, and regardless of how much arithmetic you do, unless you know something the rest of the world doesn't, manufacturing does not compromise the entire non-service sectors of China and the U.S.

China was set to surpass the U.S. this year when the states were in a recession and they were still going strong, but now that they've been hit as hard if not harder I'm not sure how it'll turn out. In any event, as of last year the states were still the largest manufacturer in the world, and as for whether or not that changes this year, only time will tell.

Like I said before, there is more to the non-service sector than manufacturing. :-D
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Re: the econolpyse was NOT caused by peak oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 03:56:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'L')ike I said before, there is more to the non-service sector than manufacturing. :-D
I include agriculture. That's making stuff too. What non-service parts of the economy doesn't make stuff. Just interested.

Oh, and what is the size of manufacturing industries in the US, compared to, say, China?
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Re: the econolpyse was NOT caused by peak oil

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 04:52:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'L')ike I said before, there is more to the non-service sector than manufacturing. :-D
I include agriculture. That's making stuff too.
That's a very George Bush type of philosophy. Making up classifications that ignore the standards we've had for decades in order to suit your own purposes definitely has a precedent.Image
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'W')hat non-service parts of the economy doesn't make stuff. Just interested.
What do you mean by "make stuff"? You seem to enjoy arbitrarily classifying stuff to fit your statements, so what does "make stuff" mean to you right now?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'O')h, and what is the size of manufacturing industries in the US, compared to, say, China?
That too depends on what you mean when you say "manufacturing" compared to what economists and just about everyone else means when they say it, so you're going to have to provide more information, hopefully using common terms as opposed to your own particular versions. :-D
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Re: the econolpyse was NOT caused by peak oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 06:14:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'O')h, and what is the size of manufacturing industries in the US, compared to, say, China?
That too depends on what you mean when you say "manufacturing" compared to what economists and just about everyone else means when they say it, so you're going to have to provide more information, hopefully using common terms as opposed to your own particular versions. :-D
You claimed that the US was the world's largest manufacturing country. What definition did you use?

I gave you one piece of evidence that the US probably isn't the world's biggest manufacturer. You've given me nothing except attempted put-downs, and it was you who made the claim in the first place.
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Re: the econolpyse was NOT caused by peak oil

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 07:45:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'Y')ou claimed that the US was the world's largest manufacturing country. What definition did you use?
I believe he is talking about Value Added Manufacturing

Older estimates put China passing the US in about 4 years. But this recession is slamming US manufacturers hard. Newer estimates put China as passing the US sometime next year. Next year, China is projected to hold 17 per cent of manufacturing value-added output of $11,783bn, the US 16%.
China To Pass US As World's Top Manufacturer

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he expected change will end more than a 100 years of US dominance. It returns China to a position it occupied, according to economic historians, for some 1,800 years up to about 1840, when Britain became the world’s biggest manufacturer after its Industrial Revolution.
China To Overtake US As Largest Manufacturer
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: the econolpyse was NOT caused by peak oil

Unread postby Zero-point » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 10:39:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')he peak in oil meant the peak in growth. We needed 3% growth just to keep the system working. We needed new malls, new cars, new houses or the whole thing collapses.

I would say that it was the causal factor, like the Roman silver mines flooding. The thing that kept it all growing was oil. Once we weren't getting more of it every year growth stopped. Our whole economic house of cards was knocked over by it.


Are you kidding! We needed new malls, new cars, new houses?!
I think the less malls the better. The only people needing more houses are the banks and their ponzi scheme housing bubble.
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Re: the econolpyse was NOT caused by peak oil

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 11:43:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'Y')ou claimed that the US was the world's largest manufacturing country. What definition did you use?
Use the search Luke. The metric according to the article is "manufacturing value-added output" and at last count the U.S. was the world's largest manufacturer. W/ the U.S. economy faltering they were set to overtake 'em, but now that they've followed the same path who knows who will be on top for 2008.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') gave you one piece of evidence that the US probably isn't the world's biggest manufacturer. You've given me nothing except attempted put-downs, and it was you who made the claim in the first place.
Tony, I never put you down. Maybe poked some fun at your very inclusive version of manufacturing, which isn't surprising since you tend to like non-standard uses that serve your own purposes, but that's not a put down. It's not like I do it just to you, I josh around w/ just about everyone. Anyway, if you ain't gonna spend the requisite minute searching for something, don't expect others to spend the requisite minute linking it. :P
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Re: the econolpyse was NOT caused by peak oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 14:44:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'Y')ou claimed that the US was the world's largest manufacturing country. What definition did you use?
Use the search Luke. The metric according to the article is "manufacturing value-added output" and at last count the U.S. was the world's largest manufacturer. W/ the U.S. economy faltering they were set to overtake 'em, but now that they've followed the same path who knows who will be on top for 2008.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') gave you one piece of evidence that the US probably isn't the world's biggest manufacturer. You've given me nothing except attempted put-downs, and it was you who made the claim in the first place.
Tony, I never put you down. Maybe poked some fun at your very inclusive version of manufacturing, which isn't surprising since you tend to like non-standard uses that serve your own purposes, but that's not a put down. It's not like I do it just to you, I josh around w/ just about everyone. Anyway, if you ain't gonna spend the requisite minute searching for something, don't expect others to spend the requisite minute linking it. :P
Well, I did spend the requisite minute, and told you about it. You spent a couple of further posts saying nothing more. It took kublikhan to answer for you (thanks, kubli).

And your last paragraph is another put down ("that serve your own purpose") but I guess it is so natural that you don't realise you're doing it.
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Re: the econolpyse was NOT caused by peak oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 14:54:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I') believe he is talking about Value Added Manufacturing
Thanks.

That looks like a dollar based value. As China is low cost, low price, how does that translate into goods actually produced? Perhaps in terms of quantity per sector, weight, volume, units. Seems like China would be well ahead, on that basis.
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Re: the econolpyse was NOT caused by peak oil

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 14:59:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'W')ell, I did spend the requisite minute, and told you about it. You spent a couple of further posts saying nothing more.
So the problem was? And if you already spent that minute, why would you ask me about something you already found?$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'Y')ou claimed that the US was the world's largest manufacturing country. What definition did you use?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'A')nd your last paragraph is another put down ("that serve your own purpose") but I guess it is so natural that you don't realise you're doing it.
Serving one's own purposes is not a put down. It's what pretty much everyone on the forum does, unless they're posting for someone else's benefit. Well, I suppose someone could technically post for no reason at all, but most members don't seem nihilistic IMO. Anyway, not a put down. Well, not meant to be anyway. I suppose anything could be a put down w/ thin enough skin.
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Re: the econolpyse was NOT caused by peak oil

Unread postby nobodypanic » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 17:43:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zero-point', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')he peak in oil meant the peak in growth. We needed 3% growth just to keep the system working. We needed new malls, new cars, new houses or the whole thing collapses.

I would say that it was the causal factor, like the Roman silver mines flooding. The thing that kept it all growing was oil. Once we weren't getting more of it every year growth stopped. Our whole economic house of cards was knocked over by it.


Are you kidding! We needed new malls, new cars, new houses?!
I think the less malls the better. The only people needing more houses are the banks and their ponzi scheme housing bubble.

well you need something; otherwise what are all those new fresh faces joining the wrokforce every year going to do for a job?
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Re: the econolpyse was NOT caused by peak oil

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 17:50:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I') believe he is talking about Value Added Manufacturing
Thanks.

That looks like a dollar based value. As China is low cost, low price, how does that translate into goods actually produced? Perhaps in terms of quantity per sector, weight, volume, units. Seems like China would be well ahead, on that basis.
Not sure of a good way to measure that. Tonnage of goods shipped would probably be closest. American industry shipped 13 billion tons of freight in 2007($12 trillion). Of that manufactured goods and materials was about 9 billion tons($8.4 trillion). American Industry
China shipped 22.5 billion tons of freight in 2007($11 trillion). I am not sure how much of that was manufactured goods. China Logisitics Industry
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: the econolypse was NOT caused by peak oil

Unread postby killJOY » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 18:10:35

That fact that the "experts" can't even come close to agreeing on this subject is proof-positive of how blind, stupid and damned we are.

Too many "analysts" see these issues as either/or: this is a primary dysfunction in thinking. What's happening is not either peak oil, or finance; it's an interlocking monster Hydra of doom, peak oil, financial incompetence and overshoot, all rolled into one.

We're living during the worst -- worst! -- confluence of events in human history.

How we choose to see this speaks to our predispositions. Too many are predisposed toward their individual disciplines.

I choose to see it the way Michael Klare voiced it months ago:

Barreling Into Recession: How Oil Burst the American Bubble

I also choose to see the current crash in oil prices the way Charles Hugh Smith called it in an article also written months ago:

Oil: One Last Head-Fake?
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: the econolypse was NOT caused by peak oil

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 18:19:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', '
')We're living during the worst -- worst! -- confluence of events in human history.


Seriously. And we argue about something as trivial as what One Thing is causing it.

It always has to be The One Thing, of course. Anything else would be messy.
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Re: the econolpyse was NOT caused by peak oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 19:23:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'W')ell, I did spend the requisite minute, and told you about it. You spent a couple of further posts saying nothing more.
So the problem was? And if you already spent that minute, why would you ask me about something you already found?$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'Y')ou claimed that the US was the world's largest manufacturing country. What definition did you use?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'A')nd your last paragraph is another put down ("that serve your own purpose") but I guess it is so natural that you don't realise you're doing it.
Serving one's own purposes is not a put down. It's what pretty much everyone on the forum does, unless they're posting for someone else's benefit. Well, I suppose someone could technically post for no reason at all, but most members don't seem nihilistic IMO. Anyway, not a put down. Well, not meant to be anyway. I suppose anything could be a put down w/ thin enough skin.
What a nit-picker, you are.

Anyway, the upshot is that the US is primarily a service based economy. It will find it tough, as global trade shrinks. At least that's my opinion. Take it or leave it.
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Re: the econolpyse was NOT caused by peak oil

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 19:27:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'W')ell, I did spend the requisite minute, and told you about it. You spent a couple of further posts saying nothing more.
So the problem was? And if you already spent that minute, why would you ask me about something you already found?$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'Y')ou claimed that the US was the world's largest manufacturing country. What definition did you use?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'A')nd your last paragraph is another put down ("that serve your own purpose") but I guess it is so natural that you don't realise you're doing it.
Serving one's own purposes is not a put down. It's what pretty much everyone on the forum does, unless they're posting for someone else's benefit. Well, I suppose someone could technically post for no reason at all, but most members don't seem nihilistic IMO. Anyway, not a put down. Well, not meant to be anyway. I suppose anything could be a put down w/ thin enough skin.
What a nit-picker, you are.

Anyway, the upshot is that the US is primarily a service based economy. It will find it tough, as global trade shrinks. At least that's my opinion. Take it or leave it.

Tell me how a manufacturing based economy is magically better? If people can't afford the durable goods you are making, what difference does it make?
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