by Nickel » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 17:13:36
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nickel', '
')Hold on, Strawman; who said anything about thriving? You said our jobs and infrastructure were being supported by a debt load we supposedly can't even afford to service -- which is rubbish in both particulars.
I was talking about US. The same holds true for EU as well.
Well, I wasn't, so save these points for someone who was.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'S')ubstantial proportion of Canadian jobs is so entangled with debt loaded American economy that no amount of Canadian state help will preserve these once American economy crumbles.
Just off the top of your head, do you know the percentage of the Canadian economy represented by our export trade to the United States? Do you know how a 1% decrease in that trade is expressed in proportionate terms? I do.
If the United States vanished off the face of the Earth tomorrow, it would take with it less than 1/5 of our entire economy. Now, a loss of well over 10% of our economy would, by definition, put us into a depression; however, the vast majority of our economy would still remain -- as much as we go on about being an export economy, the fact is that we ourselves consume more 2/3 of what we ourselves produce.
Now, keep in mind that the US is not going to disappear tomorrow. Its needs may contract, but they will not disappear. And given the size of the country relative to ours, their needs are not going to contract any great deal. We'll hurt, sure. But they're still going to need most of what they're already buying from us. They're not buying it to be our pals; they're buying it because they need it.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'A')nd do you really think that loonie can survive USD collapse?
by EnergyUnlimited » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 17:44:44
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nickel', '
')Of course it can; that's the entire point of having a separate currency in the first place. The question then becomes what will its relative value be against the currencies of our other trade partners, and will it be advantageous to our exports, or to theirs?
So who are going to be *other* trade partners?
EU, which is also haunted by debt about as much as US and also refuses to buy seal skins?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'T')hey were relying on renewable resources only, didn't attempt to hinder Nature's efforts to keep their population in check
Of course they did. Every time they ran from someone trying to eat them, they did precisely that. They just weren't as systematic about it as we are.
Nevertheless they were
sufficiently inefficient in their attempts.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')urthermore, we don't rely only on resources, renewable or otherwise. They're elements of the economy, but it's capped by holdings, things that represent potential in simply existing: infrastructure that can make something, hold something, or process something (increasingly, information). We've already identified several inexhaustible power sources. We're just taking far too long in exploiting them -- and that, I will fault us for.
by Dreamtwister » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 20:30:05
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'S')o who are going to be *other* trade partners?
First guess? China. Second guess? Europe. Both have made overtures to increased trade in the last decade. Both need our natural resources. Both can
pay their bills instead of inflating their way out of debt (at least for now).
The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
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by Snowrunner » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 00:44:45
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'S')o who are going to be *other* trade partners?
First guess? China. Second guess? Europe. Both have made overtures to increased trade in the last decade. Both need our natural resources. Both can
pay their bills instead of inflating their way out of debt (at least for now).
Problem with China is they would want to pay for it in USD.
If anything China right now has the biggest interest to NOT have the USD go *boom* right now.
Europe? Sure, but Russia is closer and they will hedging their bets. I know *I* would.
Canada would be in a pretty enviable position if we had some leaders who:
a.) Understand and admit the severity of the problem (always the first step).
b.) Would realize that being tied to a 300 pound gorilla that is about to drown is a BAD thing.
But then again, who knows, maybe we'll end up with three different Canadas:
BC, AB, SK
MB (either with first or second group)
ON, QC
Maritimes
Oh yes, fun times ahead.
by Nickel » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 10:33:58
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'E')U, which is also haunted by debt about as much as US
Nowhere near. Their average debt load is 42.18% GDP; they US's is already 72.5%. The EU isn't deficit spending in the $1 trillion/annum range, either. I don't see Denmark, Sweden, and even the UK reconsidering adopting the US dollar; I don't see Poland and Hungary working faster to get their ducks in a row to do so, either.
What we do is work to improve our trade with other countries -- many of whom, let's face it, have a lot of our money already. What we don't do is sit around saying Uncle Sam's dying, let's drink the Kool-ade too. Of course, please yourself. Don't let me stop you.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'N')evertheless they were
sufficiently inefficient in their attempts.
Well, speaking only for myself, I’m kind of hoping to be on the team that eventually makes it out into the vast universe to colonize other worlds and continue the process by which the universe, to quote Carl Sagan, comes to “know itself”. However, if you’re firmly convinced of the merits of being nothing but a particular blob of protoplasm on some immense, mindless set of scales, then be my guest: feel free to take off your clothes, shiver in the rain, eat whatever rotting fruit falls from the trees, wiggling your ass at the next leopard you see and challenge him to a footrace. If they televise it, I’ll cheer for you. May, in fact, your "energy" truly be "unlimited"... though I fear you may discover that being "sufficiently inefficient" isn't all it's cracked up to be.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'C')onstruction & maintenance of infrastructure
need those resources.
Hence my comment: "They're elements of the economy"...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'H')owever I doubt for humans to adapt to life in low oxygen environment which would develop within few millenias after oceanic phytoplankton is gone.
by EnergyUnlimited » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 12:15:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nickel', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'E')U, which is also haunted by debt about as much as US
Nowhere near. Their average debt load is 42.18% GDP; they US's is already 72.5%. The EU isn't deficit spending in the $1 trillion/annum range, either. I don't see Denmark, Sweden, and even the UK reconsidering adopting the US dollar; I don't see Poland and Hungary working faster to get their ducks in a row to do so, either.
Take Germans out of equation and you will get very much US like picture.
Brits or Frogs very much like US, Italians and Spaniards even worst off, or Hungarians bankrupt (they are in need of rescue packages from EU and IMF).
Yet these are Germans who will do the best in EU.
Why?
Because they are not stupid enough to embace debt as a problem solving instrument.
Weimar lesson have helped here, I suppose.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell, speaking only for myself, I’m kind of hoping to be on the team that eventually makes it out into the vast universe to colonize other worlds and continue the process by which the universe, to quote Carl Sagan, comes to “know itself”.
These are only hopes and also unrealistic ones.
Too much Star Treck watching, I suppose.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..feel free to take off your clothes, shiver in the rain, eat whatever rotting fruit falls from the trees, wiggling your ass at the next leopard you see and challenge him to a footrace.
by Nickel » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 13:06:55
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'T')ake Germans out of equation
Why?
They're in it. That's the whole point of the EU, or any other federation.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'G')ermans... are not stupid enough to embace debt as a problem solving instrument.
Well, they might not like you calling them 'stupid'. They're forecasting exceeding the EU 3% GDP deficit-spending limits next year -- but they're doing it to keep people employed and the economy from stagnating. Sort of, you know, what I was suggesting we do here, which prompted your objections in the first place.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..feel free to take off your clothes, shiver in the rain, eat whatever rotting fruit falls from the trees, wiggling your ass at the next leopard you see and challenge him to a footrace.
That may well be our future, once Nature finish off current idiocy at the end...
by Snowrunner » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 14:11:12
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nickel', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snowrunner', 'E')DIT: I am guessing here, but as he spent 2 1/2 hours with the Governor General to get his suspension of Parliament she probably told him that if he can't get his budget passed in January he won't get an election either, hence his.... Well, honesty at the moment.... That and FUD, lots and lots of FUD.
That's an interesting suggestion. It's possible that she did make it tacitly plain to him that another election wasn't in the offing, so he'd better come up with something the Opposition could get on board with, or else she'd invite them to take a whack at it.
He's blinking so fast now that his woreshippers still think he has his eyes wide open:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/toronto/story/ ... ament.html
by Nickel » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 15:21:05
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'T')hey have their credit line rather clean at least to begin with.
Wow, you never get done backing up, do you?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'T')he same cannot be said about most of other EU nations and other Western nations.
Which, again, brings me back to the fact that my original point was about Canada. You keep chasing down these blind alleys that don't have
that name anywhere on the street signs.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')color=red]If you're not interested in providing solutions,[/color] might I suggest you do your lemming bit now and make space for someone who is? Suits both our philosophies simultaneously.
"Overall, I think you've exhausted your arguments, and you're descending to ad hominem attacks".
by EnergyUnlimited » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 15:34:40
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nickel', '
')Which, again, brings me back to the fact that my original point was about Canada. You keep chasing down these blind alleys that don't have that name anywhere on the street signs.
There will be a depression in Canada regardless of some sill public spending programs directed at preserving
status quo for a while more.
That is because major trading partners of Canada (US & EU) are hopelessly indebted and entering depression as well.
That alone will evaporate ~20% of Canadian economy.
And Canada is not selling much to China in any case.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's only an ad hominem attack in the event that you're genuinely not interested in providing solutions, isn't it?
Well, does that describe you or not...? Let us know. If not, put up. If so,
"might as well jump -- JUMP! -- Go ahead and jump..." 
Solutions will emerge in due course but you are not going to like them.
You may carefully consider
jumping option then.
by Nickel » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 16:22:47
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'T')here will be a depression in Canada regardless of some sill public spending programs directed at preserving status quo for a while more.
That is because major trading partners of Canada (US & EU) are hopelessly indebted and entering depression as well.
That alone will evaporate ~20% of Canadian economy.
You'd have to be able to represent the downturn in figures to demonstrate that. I'm not persuaded either way, but your position is simply an ipse dixit.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'A')nd Canada is not selling much to China in any case.
We weren't selling much to the United States when our trade was largely bound for the UK, either. Times change. That's in the nature of time, in fact.
by EnergyUnlimited » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 16:44:08
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nickel', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'T')here will be a depression in Canada regardless of some sill public spending programs directed at preserving status quo for a while more.
That is because major trading partners of Canada (US & EU) are hopelessly indebted and entering depression as well.
That alone will evaporate ~20% of Canadian economy.
You'd have to be able to represent the downturn in figures to demonstrate that. I'm not persuaded either way, but your position is simply an ipse dixit.
1. Loss of income from exports to US will hurt badly.
2. Reduction of imports from US will hurt badly.
Such reduction will happen as bankruptcies and downsizing of US companies goes on.
And reduction of imports from US also means Canadian job losses (distribution networks, services etc.).
US is the most substantial trade partner to Canada (~80% of Canadian exports go there).
Other significant partners are Mexico, Britain and Japan, but comparing to US they are insignificant and they are also in sh*t.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e weren't selling much to the United States when our trade was largely bound for the UK, either. Times change. That's in the nature of time, in fact.
It is
global system, what is collapsing so there is nowhere to hide.
Canada will have to try to be more self sufficient, but that will certainly entail some loss of status of her citizens.
There will be much problem with American and Mexican immigrants too.
They are also countless treaties with US, very disadvantageous for Canada and it may be very difficult to wiggle out of these.
