$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')he future is just around the corner.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'C')anary in the coal mine such as airlines? Still flying even as we passed THROUGH non-cheap oil and out the other side.

[yesplease]

Isn't the point of canaries in mines that they died, not that they chirped and jumped around less? While the airline industry is certainly hurting, like a lot of other parts of the economy, it's also still alive, so to speak. Was that analogy not meant to be taken in that context?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I')sn't the point of canaries in mines that they died, not that they chirped and jumped around less? While the airline industry is certainly hurting, like a lot of other parts of the economy, it's also still alive, so to speak. Was that analogy not meant to be taken in that context?

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')f .... they are going back to work (or staying in jobs they already have and not retiring), this means they will not be "retired" anymore, and will not be collecting social security anymore.

[yesplease]

The context of a Canary in a coal mine is not that there's trouble when the canary shows a bit less activity, but when it becomes noticeably sick and dies, the miners may follow if nothing is done. In this case, the equivalent would be when the airlines are noticeably sick and die, the economy may follow if nothing is done.

While the airlines have certainly scaled back, showing less activity, like just about every other part of the economy during a recession, they aren't sick or dead AFAIK. Even a significant reduction in air travel, for instance through competition from high speed rail, as seen in Europe, does not mean that they are sick and going to die.

That said, as a direct comparison the situation still may not be analogous. Their impact on the rest of the economy should they die, still wouldn't mean the rest of the economy was going to die, since don't provide a vital service for the entire economy, just that the portion of the economy associated w/ them would end up someplace else.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'A')nd we got what? Peak oil happened, maybe twice depending on who's numbers you believe, a lending boom followed by a credit crisis, and then the expected demand destruction which happened so fast and hard that it outran OPECs ability to shut off the taps.

Canary in the coal mine such as airlines? Still flying even as we passed THROUGH non-cheap oil and out the other side. NASCAR? Still racing. Las Vegas? I was there a month ago....drank some water to make sure they still had some. Yup. They did.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'P')ost of the week.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I')sn't the point of canaries in mines that they died, not that they chirped and jumped around less? While the airline industry is certainly hurting, like a lot of other parts of the economy, it's also still alive, so to speak. Was that analogy not meant to be taken in that context?

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'W')hile the airlines have certainly scaled back, showing less activity, like just about every other part of the economy during a recession, they aren't sick or dead AFAIK.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I')sn't the point of canaries in mines that they died, not that they chirped and jumped around less? While the airline industry is certainly hurting, like a lot of other parts of the economy, it's also still alive, so to speak. Was that analogy not meant to be taken in that context?

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'W')hile the airlines have certainly scaled back, showing less activity, like just about every other part of the economy during a recession, they aren't sick or dead AFAIK.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'W')hile the airlines have certainly scaled back, showing less activity, like just about every other part of the economy during a recession, they aren't sick or dead AFAIK.

[JJ]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Air transport is important to global personal transportation, but most goods in the global economy are sent by boat. Undoubtedly it's a part, but even if it completely died, which I doubt it will, I don't see how it results in the rest of the economy dying."

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlinkBlink', 'I')nternational tourism is the biggest export earner for a large number of countries. Much of their economies are dependent on it.

Australia's international tourism industry is worth AU$8+b. Thats about 11% of our exports.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'Y')ou're entitled to your opinion. I think the death of the airline industry will have a much bigger impact to just in time industries and sectors. It would likely also be a harbinger of the decline of shipping, which needs similar fuels for the scale of it. But that's just my opinion. Feel free to think the effects will be minimal.

[AirlinePilot]

Yes,

Your living in a cocoon. The airline industry is on life support now. its very sick and while I'm sure it wont be allowed to die, its going to change or shrink so significantly over the next few years it will be the same result.

I agree that airlines wont go away, its the primary form of long distance travel right now and not something which is just going to stop because it goes bust. It will be massively shrunk and subsidized. It will be a totally different animal. Think AMTRAK of the skies with whats left. I'd guess that shift happens in less than 5 years.

The airlines are on a very short list of bailout candidates after the banks and car companies. Mark my words.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 's')o I don't think we're going to see the end of global shipping.

[yesplease]

The airline industry shrinking is the same result as as it dying? Are you serious AP? And to say that a contraction means it's on life support? So does a month to month decline in oil production mean the oil industry is on life support?