[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', 'T')he shortage was chronic, and it exibited itself in the indebtment of the general economy. Credit availablity only shifted what was available to those able to attain that credit and away from those who could not. The credit crunch is/was the process of that pool of credit shrinking, cutting availability first to large parts of what have been until now the first world (including US home buyers) and now into the rapidily developing countries, such as is now occuring in China.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', 'T')hat is self evidently not the case. Oil prices above a certain point render large swathes of the economy unprofitable - this is exactly what you would expect as more energy is diverted towards energy production and away from the general ecomomy.

[bodhinagami]

So, how much months or weeks do you think petroleum will be kept at this price?

Each falling of the price of petroleum, I think is related to economic destruction... but the price of the u$a dollar should be taken also into account.

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', 'T')he shortage was chronic, and it exibited itself in the indebtment of the general economy. Credit availablity only shifted what was available to those able to attain that credit and away from those who could not. The credit crunch is/was the process of that pool of credit shrinking, cutting availability first to large parts of what have been until now the first world (including US home buyers) and now into the rapidily developing countries, such as is now occuring in China.

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', 'T')hat is self evidently not the case. Oil prices above a certain point render large swathes of the economy unprofitable - this is exactly what you would expect as more energy is diverted towards energy production and away from the general ecomomy.

[yesplease]

The numbers seem to indicate so, at least according to this among other sources. If U.S. real unemployment/underemployment rate is ~12% (supposedly hasn't been used since Reagan), that's ~88% of the population who are employed and do not wish for more work, as opposed to the unemployed and underemployed 12%. Even during the great depression, we only saw 25% unemployment IIRC. That means that equity markets can fall flat on their faces, essentially going to zero, w/ the resulting shocks moving through the economy, and three out of four people were still employed.

Granted, if you asked people how they felt about their job their outlook would probably depend on whatever was being touted on the tube, e.g. if the U-6 is at 9% and "everything is fine" they may tend to feel secure, while they may feel insecure if the U-6 is a 12% and "the markets are in chaos", even though in both cases their jobs are still very secure, albeit less secure w/ the economy down.

[grom]

Well, when talking about peak oil or related issues, my prediction is (and has been for the last few years):

"My son (currently 3yo) will consume less energy than I do"
For me, that is what PO is about.

I never really tried to predict what will be the immediate cause for my son lower energy compsuption.
Will it be a supply crisis & shortage?
will he become relatively poorer than I am (due to a recession)? will he live in a much more energy-efficient world?

Impossible to know, human society is a really complex system.

However, I dont think the last drop in oil prices changes my prediction a bit.

Feel free to disagree. Anyone thinks her son will consume more energy than herself?

[bodigami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grom', '(')...) Feel free to disagree. Anyone thinks her son will consume more energy than herself?

[vaseline2008]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'C')orn and beans and copper and aluminum are off 40% - 50% from their highs this year; cattle, milk, hogs cotton, sugar, lumber, wheat and ethanol are likewise down.

So what to make of all that?

The one thing I haven't seen mentioned in this thread (aside from those mentioned above) is there are huge amounts of money out there looking for a place to go. Pension funds, hedge-funds, petro-dollars, etc. had been in .coms, then went into mortgages, then in commodities - each time they burnt one bridge they simply went to the next.

Looks like they ran out of bridges.

So to answer the question, there is no crow to eat regarding PO, this was just a taste, just one feather's worth of what is to come when when geologic peak or EROEI peak happens, or simply when desire exceeds ability to pay regardless of production.

[Elijah]

On March 8, 2005, I posted the following:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')re we in the grip of a Peak Oil decline? Probably not. Yet. Not this time. There's a good chance we're just feeling the effects of the under-investment of the 90s and Chindia's growth. And even if we are feeling the effects of decline, do not underestimate our ability to conserve and adapt in ways that will prolong the hydrocarbon age for decades and quite possibly centuries to come. When he has to, man can be quite resourceful and adaptive.

Our family recently cut our already modest home energy bills by 20% in response to higher costs, and we barely noticed any difference in our way of life. The potential for conservation is huge without a lot of pain. Granted, that's only a temporary reprieve, but it could be a significant one, one that forestalls any real pain for decades.

I fear some Peak Oil adherents risk discrediting a perfectly good theory in their zeal for a good apocalypse. By crying "Wolf!" when the wolf isn't at the door, they risk making the theory a laughing stock when it ought to be percolating into our national consciousness as a real threat looming on the horizon.

[Zero-point]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'N')o, it's not time to eat crow. It's time for everyone else to. We peak oilers always knew that the "Grand Depression" scenario was likely.
Heck, it was peak oilers like Matt Simmons and Mike Ruppert who put the phrase "demand destruction" on the map. It wasn't a term ordinary economists used. It really is a peak oil thing. And now it's appearing in MSM headlines.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zero-point', 'w')ho do you think is behind the peak oil scenario?

[Zero-point]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zero-point', 'w')ho do you think is behind the peak oil scenario?

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zero-point', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zero-point', 'w')ho do you think is behind the peak oil scenario?

[Zero-point]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'N')o doubt some of the same folks that are behind things like gravity and crystal symmetry in minerals.

[sparky]

No secret there, they are not behind it ...they are pretty much in front their nose in the trough.

nobody cared about peak oil until the second Iraq war, then traders cottoned on the fact that a bit of a scare (well justified) about Nigeria going feral , Iraq deeply disturbed and Iran having a stranglehold on Hormuz , this was making a lot of money to wall street, A parallel line was conveniently presented as a rebuttal of " climate change IE why worry , we are running out of the stuff anyway .

Of course this sudden realisation that the end was night upon us satisfie some deeply masochistic instinct in people , if things are good , then some really bad news is around the corner .
This is usually correct .

[Zero-point]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', 'N')o secret there, they are not behind it ...they are pretty much in front their nose in the trough.
nobody cared about peak oil until the second Iraq war, then traders cottoned on the fact that a bit of a scare (well justified) about Nigeria going feral , Iraq deeply disturbed and Iran having a stranglehold on Hormuz , this was making a lot of money to wall street, A parallel line was conveniently presented as a rebuttal of " climate change IE why worry , we are running out of the stuff anyway .
Of course this sudden realisation that the end was night upon us satisfie some deeply masochistic instinct in people , if things are good , then some really bad news is around the corner .
This is usually correct .

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zero-point', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zero-point', 'w')ho do you think is behind the peak oil scenario?

[Nickel]

I don't think we're fools, no. It's really just a matter of mathematics. Oil's going to run out someday. Even if we make some fantastic find that doubles the amount of oil in the world, we're still only looking at a few more generations before it's completely gone. We need to get serious about developing our numerous and bountiful renewable energy resources.

Also, even if we did find scads more oil, is it really a good idea to keep fueling our society by burning it? We're polluting the planet in myriad ways, and raising the global temperature through combustion (if not through the process of global warming). And I keep thinking of all things we could be doing with petroleum -- a complex, irreplaceable soup of useful carbon compounds -- besides just burning it, if we shepherd what we have left for a few centuries. I had this daydream a while ago that God comes back after an absence of several thousand years, asks us how we used the petroleum He spent millions of years cooking up for us, and is shocked to hear that, by and large, we just burned it.

We're not fools to want to stop burning oil, for whatever our reasons.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nickel', 'W')e're not fools to want to stop burning oil, for whatever our reasons.