[zeke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Economix', 'I')f Peak Oil is only about extraction, who gives a rip? In other words, if we're only measuring extraction rates, why lose sleep over it?
In my opinion, what we're really talking about on Peak Oil is this:
1. The dangerous socio-economic and political impact of Peak Oil.
2. The possible geopolitical violence that could result from Peak Oil.
3. The potential alternatives to oil to prevent #1 and #2 above.
It's not about oil, it's about energy -- and the big problem we have finding enough energy for the world's growing population. Just talking about extraction rates is nothing but a geology debate.
We're talking people here, folks. People = society. People = prices.

[Serial_Worrier]

Gas down to 2.28/gallon. Good times, I'm planning on buying a Ford Expedition soon!

[matt21811]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'L')ast year I said that the price of oil would range between $78 and $146 in 2008. So far that is almost exactly the range.
I said months ago, before the Bear Stearns failure, that because of the effects of peak oil, we will have a recession in the second half of 2008, where the economy would fall twice as fast in the fourth quarter as in the third.
Why should I eat crow? And when exactly did cornucopians predict oil going up to $147 this year? And if they didn't predict what happened before, what makes them right now?

[Twilight]

This is what victory looks like. Unless anyone thinks we will hit a higher peak after demand destruction kills investment for another decade while we keep up the majority of the underlying pumping and depletion. The credit crunch was a royal flush. It looks like a bit of a fluke, but hey, who is complaining? Oil dropping well under $50 decisively and staying there hands the peak oil crowd everything on the table.

[AirlinePilot]

I'll say this again for those who seem to be missing the point. if oil goes down to 40 or below, we have a crapload of other problems to deal with. Oil below those prices means global demand collapse, not just incremental destruction. Its not where we want to go.

I believe it will be worst case if we do go down that road. Hope I'm wrong.

[nobodypanic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', 'G')as down to 2.28/gallon. Good times, I'm planning on buying a Ford Expedition soon!

[Roy]

Hell, at $1.89 I haven't turned my car off since Monday. I like it to stay warmed up. Nobody likes to sit in a cold car.

[Rogozhin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I')'ll say this again for those who seem to be missing the point. if oil goes down to 40 or below, we have a crapload of other problems to deal with. Oil below those prices means global demand collapse, not just incremental destruction. Its not where we want to go. I believe it will be worst case if we do go down that road. Hope I'm wrong.

[venky]

I am still convinced Peak Oil is real and will happen in the near future historically speaking.

The question is how it will affect my future personally. For the past few years I used to mostly believe that Peak Oil would affect me in the near future < 10 years, in regards to unemployment, turmoil in the cities, riots and perhaps even war.

Now I am thinking more that the effects of Peak Oil will occur far more gradually and may or may not affect me personally during my lifetime depending on my circumstances. If I can maintain my employment, live in a relatively stable area or region.
I think oil depletion will just be another piece in the much large problem of resource depletion, global climate change and sustainablity that will play out over a period of decades post 2025 roughly speaking.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', 'I') am still convinced Peak Oil is real and will happen in the near future historically speaking.
The question is how it will affect my future personally. For the past few years I used to mostly believe that Peak Oil would affect me in the near future < 10 years, in regards to unemployment, turmoil in the cities, riots and perhaps even war.
Now I am thinking more that the effects of Peak Oil will occur far more gradually and may or may not affect me personally during my lifetime depending on my circumstances. If I can maintain my employment, live in a relatively stable area or region.
I think oil depletion will just be another piece in the much large problem of resource depletion, global climate change and sustainablity that will play out over a period of decades post 2025 roughly speaking.

[threadbear]

Posters who think that oil is going to do a complete 180 degree turn and march right back up north of 147.00 are likely incorrect. If it does, depletion may only play a minor role in the price rise, as it did before.

But to people with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

[JJ]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', 'I') am still convinced Peak Oil is real and will happen in the near future historically speaking.
The question is how it will affect my future personally. For the past few years I used to mostly believe that Peak Oil would affect me in the near future < 10 years, in regards to unemployment, turmoil in the cities, riots and perhaps even war.
Now I am thinking more that the effects of Peak Oil will occur far more gradually and may or may not affect me personally during my lifetime depending on my circumstances. If I can maintain my employment, live in a relatively stable area or region.
I think oil depletion will just be another piece in the much large problem of resource depletion, global climate change and sustainablity that will play out over a period of decades post 2025 roughly speaking.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', 'I') am still convinced Peak Oil is real and will happen in the near future historically speaking.
The question is how it will affect my future personally. For the past few years I used to mostly believe that Peak Oil would affect me in the near future < 10 years, in regards to unemployment, turmoil in the cities, riots and perhaps even war.
Now I am thinking more that the effects of Peak Oil will occur far more gradually and may or may not affect me personally during my lifetime depending on my circumstances. If I can maintain my employment, live in a relatively stable area or region.
I think oil depletion will just be another piece in the much large problem of resource depletion, global climate change and sustainablity that will play out over a period of decades post 2025 roughly speaking.

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', 'I') am still convinced Peak Oil is real and will happen in the near future historically speaking.
The question is how it will affect my future personally. For the past few years I used to mostly believe that Peak Oil would affect me in the near future < 10 years, in regards to unemployment, turmoil in the cities, riots and perhaps even war.
Now I am thinking more that the effects of Peak Oil will occur far more gradually and may or may not affect me personally during my lifetime depending on my circumstances. If I can maintain my employment, live in a relatively stable area or region.
I think oil depletion will just be another piece in the much large problem of resource depletion, global climate change and sustainablity that will play out over a period of decades post 2025 roughly speaking.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', ' ')
Then what is shortonoil's "Available Energy" theory? I fail to understand how so many on the site dismiss how EROEI fits into all of this. The credit bubble was an attempt to counter the effects of falling "Available Energy", replacing Joules with Dollars. As an attempt to reflate GDP, it was never sustainable.

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', ' ')Then what is shortonoil's "Available Energy" theory? I fail to understand how so many on the site dismiss how EROEI fits into all of this. The credit bubble was an attempt to counter the effects of falling "Available Energy", replacing Joules with Dollars. As an attempt to reflate GDP, it was never sustainable.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', ' ')Not that we didn't have any... (but then we never had a perfect market economy in the first place)

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', ' ')Not that we didn't have any... (but then we never had a perfect market economy in the first place)

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', 'T')hat is self evidently not the case. Oil prices above a certain point render large swathes of the economy unprofitable - this is exactly what you would expect as more energy is diverted towards energy production and away from the general ecomomy.

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', 'T')hat is self evidently not the case. Oil prices above a certain point render large swathes of the economy unprofitable - this is exactly what you would expect as more energy is diverted towards energy production and away from the general ecomomy.