[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'P')eaker #1 says:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'Y')es yes- I agree there are some posters here who postulated that even a strong economic downturn would not cause an immense price collapse. I will also fess up that I saw a floor at around 80-90$. 40 $ seemed inconceivable.

[jasonraymondson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'P')eaker #1 says:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'Y')es yes- I agree there are some posters here who postulated that even a strong economic downturn would not cause an immense price collapse. I will also fess up that I saw a floor at around 80-90$. 40 $ seemed inconceivable.

[jasonraymondson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'S')o you shall be leaving us shortly, Mr. Raymondson?

[Rogozhin]

If the realization of a life after 'peak oil' spurred you to start prepping (even in small and seemingly insignificant ways) then the actualization wasn't worthless. I still have a decent job and a shifted worldview, but I now have 20 acres and a small garden which I wouldn't have pursed had I not discovered 'peak oil'.

I don't understand why you're angry.

Rogo

[Revi]

Look around. The reason nobody's buying any cars is that they don't have any money left to do it with. Their adjustable rate mortgage just reset and they just lost their job. They can't haul the winnebago around any more even if the price of gas was 25 cents a gallon. We're in year two of the great recession.

It's just another interesting twist in the slow decline of the fossil fuel age.

When Bush took office gas was selling for $1.46 a gallon. We're back to that now, in some places. Funny how that happened.

Greg Palast feels that the reason for the Iraq invasion was to hold the price of oil up. I am beginning to agree with him.

This is the last chance oil sale before going out of business forever. They have to get rid of a lot of unsold inventory.

Wait a year or two and see what happens.

[thuja]

I don't really care if you don't understand Peak Oil Jason. If you think that a price crash somehow dispels the reality of a finite resource, then I'd say its probably time for you to go.

If, on the other hand, you wish to understand the subject on a better level, try reading Hirsch or Heinberg to understand what is happening.

[Alcassin]

Mr. Raymondson just can't stand non-linear changes, and that it's not black and white, but is composed by thousands shades of grey.

I just don't get why many peakers are so concentrated on the subject that they reject the rest of the world. They are similar to the "new born" Christians who have direct connection with god. The problem is that when something happens in the unpredicted way they react with hysteria, and take offence from the facts. It's infantile behavior. Period.

Peak oil is just happening, it's geological, empyrical phenomena. You can measure it by the amount of oil produced. The problem is the forecast when it happens, I grasp the concept, and I think it doesn't matter if it happens today oi in 2020. It is not the end of the world when it happens (there are thing to do), however the faster decline the worse of we are.

However, what I know from this site, and what changed my entire outlook is ecology. There is no second planet Earth to go to, there is nothing we can do if we screw up our habitat.
And that's why peak oil is a symptom, not disease.

PS. 40$ oil? It can be 20$ oil. Chickens came home to roost, deleveraging is really happening, we are in recession, demand is going down, prices are falling. Peak oil will not be seen in prices, but in production.

[mos6507]

Statistically, most of us here including prominent experts like Simmons thought this was "the big one" and that any pullback wouldn't go below $100. There are too many here now who just want doom so badly that they will rewrite history and spin current events to keep the doomer buzz going. For instance. It used to be that high oil prices spelled doom. Now low oil prices spells doom via lack of oil investment. Seems like whatever the price of oil is, it's doom! From my vantage point, high oil prices = doom in the present tense. Low oil prices = respite in the present tense. Cheap gas, cheap fuel oil, and all the other inflation we were experiencing from our oil-intensive world evaporates. The future will take care of itself. I do not expect this to last forever, but I'm going to see it as a good thing for peakers to finish their preps at a discount (as long as they can stay employed). I mean, peakers, don't look a gift horse in the mouth.

I think peak oil advocates sometimes feel they have no ability to sell it to the masses unless the end is nigh, I mean REALLY nigh. But doom will come when it comes and not a moment sooner. Those who need doom to be literally days away before they take it seriously are probably screwed anyway. To artificially pump up the peak oil doomsaying only creates Boy Who Cried Wolf syndrome, causing even more denial to set in until TS really does HTF. It's not denying peak oil to now say that the peak-induced S hitting the F may now be 5+ years off. A big reason why Hubbert's original global peak prediction has been off was the oil embargo! So there is a precedent in an abnormal drop in oil consumption shifting the depletion curve forward in time.

I think everyone has reason to worry about TSHTF in the near future to some extent, but I don't think the doomermeter should be off the scales anymore. Not for peak oil, at least. The credit crisis is a whole different story.

[Revi]

I think the whole thing is all mixed in together. Peak oil, finance and ecological collapse are all related.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'M')y guess is that OilFinder is ultimately somewhat afraid of this issue and by creating the strawman that everyone here believes that Peak Oil spells complete and immediate catastophe he can "dispel" any ramifications of Peak Oil.
Either that or he purposely ignores long term discussion of the likelihood of price crashes and volatility.
My guess is it is a bit of both.

[jasonraymondson]

You don't understand. You are being forced into fear. You are all being misled by those in charge.

Certain people in society need to believe there is something wrong with the system and they know it. They are using these "so-called" experts to make you afraid, in the hope that you will spread this fear to others.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'M')y guess is that OilFinder is ultimately somewhat afraid of this issue and by creating the strawman that everyone here believes that Peak Oil spells complete and immediate catastophe he can "dispel" any ramifications of Peak Oil.

Either that or he purposely ignores long term discussion of the likelihood of price crashes and volatility.

My guess is it is a bit of both.

[JoeSixPack]

The people of this site are addicted to doom. If they don't feel that the world is dying or some other crazy shit is going down, then they don't feel alive.

The people of this site are fear junkies

[keehah]

OilFinder2, regarding your use of '"afraid"', the word your are repressing is 'denial.' Your posts (at least in this thread) offer so many variations on the act.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JoeSixPack', 'T')he people of this site are addicted to doom. If they don't feel that the world is dying or some other crazy crap is going down, then they don't feel alive.

The people of this site are fear junkies

[Alcassin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think the whole thing is all mixed in together. Peak oil, finance and ecological collapse are all related.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'H')ere is your only salient argument (and its just not a very good one): Peakers did not determine the extent of the price drop, or some predicted that prices wouldn't drop, therefore the premise that oil is finite is wrong. Wow...really really illogical and bad argument. No soup for you....

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', ' ')

When Bush took office gas was selling for $1.46 a gallon. We're back to that now, in some places. Funny how that happened.

Greg Palast feels that the reason for the Iraq invasion was to hold the price of oil up. I am beginning to agree with him.

.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('keehah', 'O')ilFinder2, regarding your use of '"afraid"', the word your are repressing is 'denial.' Your posts (at least in this thread) offer so many variations on the act.

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')1. Trying to predict when oil production will peak. Nobody knows. Period. Some go even farther and automatically assume we've already peaked.