Peak Oil
Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

I no longer believe in Peak Oil!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
Post a reply

Re: I no longer believe in Peak Oil!

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 00:48:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think peak oil advocates sometimes feel they have no ability to sell it to the masses unless the end is nigh, I mean REALLY nigh.


I never quite understood why peak oil awareness has to be a "movement." I'm getting the same feeling I used to get in my old Libertarian party days.. everyone out banging their heads, trying to grow the local party, not doing so well with questions about Social Security from little old ladies. ;)

That was the last Libertarian meeting I ever went to. The speaker said something to the effect that "well, adult children should look after their older parents." And the old lady in the crowd said to that "huh, you don't know my kids." Seriously though, the Libbies could never get anywhere saying things like "Social Security has to go."

Oddly enough, the economic mess we're in sort of vindicates all that Libertarian stuff from years ago.

Now, this was fifteen years ago. Let's stop and think. Would it have helped me to be a doomer Libertarian over those 15 years? Nope. I had a much more enjoyable life not worrying about the state of the world, living in the land of plenty.

I think what it comes down to is, the life of preaching an unpopular Gospel is a life of real, genuine sacrifice. It can be soul-draining beyond belief trying to tell folks the sky really ain't blue. I don't think most people can keep that up over a period of years.

So perhaps we should all just stop the preaching, stop the converting. Stop the coming out to family and friends. Stop the "peak oil broke up my marriage" stuff.

Perahps Zen Buddhism is a good model for our peak oil theology. The Zenners aren't out there trying to convert folks. Enlightenment is there for folks if they want it, if not then that's their business.
User avatar
Sixstrings
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 15160
Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: I no longer believe in Peak Oil!

Unread postby thuja » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 00:56:54

Oilfinder I'm glad you can distill your arguments to 2 good and worthwhile points (even if I disagree with them).

I think that we need to continue to hear from you in the years to come and I hope I and others don't run you off by critiqueing your main points.

The first one is that we should not try and predict the peaking of world oil production. I'm not sure why you insit on this even though a number of energy analysts, thinktanks, oil companies and private scientists do think it is a worthwhile endeavor. We may have a hard time pinpointing the exact year, but it is pretty certain we can predict the general timeframe.

Many think we have been in an undulating plateau for a number of years. Nobody thinks that a peak ismore than a couple deacdes away. By dismisiing a timeframe, you try and sidestep the issue of what happens when supply cannot adequately meet demand. I would posit that we have just experienced this and its ramifications- a price superspike. This will likely be repeated the next time demand ramps up...

The second point is more important- and I think the heart of your argument. Basically the argument is...even though oil is finite, humans are adaptable and will easily be able to find ways of developing a new energy source and efficiencies that will make a lack of oil meaningless.

To this I would say...examine what happened this summer when oil "superspiked". Did humans easily adapt and find other energy sources suddenly? No. The airline industries faced collapse. Car companies started failing. Food prices skyrocketed and millions literally went hungry. The whole nation went into a panic over high prices. There was no sudden miracle save.

I am not as "doomy" as others here. I think there are ways to tackle this crisis but all of them will require a drastic change in lifestyle. And there is no way to get through this without a tremendous amount of hardship and suffering. That appears gloomy but I would simply call it realistic.
No Soup for You!!
User avatar
thuja
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sat 15 Oct 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Portland, Oregon
Top

Re: I no longer believe in Peak Oil!

Unread postby SpringCreekFarm » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 01:16:16

I don't come to this site for doom. I come here for hope.

I think that I have a good understanding of what is happening with peak oil and the economy because of this site. My belief that we are up against a peak in oil production didn't wane when prices fell, it gave me hope that for a short time I can use that to my advantage Jeavon's Paradox be damned.

The information I glean from this site allows me to understand why I try to live life more simply and independently. It justified my gut feelings about the world and what didn't make sense. Things like rampant consumerism and government and societal dependence of the world population.

Are you just stirring the pot Jason? Your flip flop appears strangely out of place and you seem unwilling to fall back into line. :twisted:
SpringCreekFarm
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 936
Joined: Fri 03 Mar 2006, 04:00:00
Location: Canada
Top

Re: I no longer believe in Peak Oil!

Unread postby Rogozhin » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 01:32:39

If this site fostered community building (there isn't a 'hometown' or 'state' forum) then I'd be more supportive, but what we see here is a group of individuals that share their experience building little worlds.

You can continue to use this site for its information regardless of your beliefs.

Do you believe in gravity?

Rogo
"Those who long for exaltation look upwards, but I look downward for I am the exalted."

Thus Spake Zarathustra
User avatar
Rogozhin
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 318
Joined: Tue 26 Dec 2006, 04:00:00
Location: Eastern Washington
Top

Re: I no longer believe in Peak Oil!

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 02:00:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'A')ssume that just because it's "finite", means that we're near or past peak production.


Predictions of peak oil aren't based on assumptions. They are based on a variety of mathematical models derived from M. King Hubberts original work.

It is possible these mathematical models aren't valid on a global basis, but its been demonstrated over and over again that they work very well for oil fields, oil provinces, countries, etc. Why shouldn't the mathematical models work for the world as a whole?
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 26765
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Top

Re: I no longer believe in Peak Oil!

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 03:29:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', '
')
To those who state I don't understand.

I am not claiming abiotic oil and I understand peak oil very well.

You all, on the other hand, don't seem to. You just grab a hold of an idea and when new information is presented you can't change your mind.

You are dinosaurs

In not too distant past you had a better label just above your stars in left top corner of your posts, just above avatar.

And there was only a single star there. :-D
User avatar
EnergyUnlimited
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7537
Joined: Mon 15 May 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: I no longer believe in Peak Oil!

Unread postby Concerned » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 03:50:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'A')nyway, do you know what "peak oil" actually means?

It is about peak production, not peak price.


Yes, ass.

If we have hit it, why is oil now $40.00 a barrel. If we were on the other side of the curve, oil prices would have no choice other than go up, otherwise companies / countries would not be able to ship the oil to the refineries.


WRONG.

For one you are assuming markets and people are rational and transparent like the bullshit mantra that constantly indoctrinates you on how great the "free" market is.

When you realize that dot coms can go into the stratosphere on nothing but speculation similar to the dutch "tulip mania" google that one. IRRATIONAL pricing is nothing new!

Heck I've read news where companies trade below actual cash and saleable assets on hand...

Don't expect price signals alone to give you the one "answer" to Peak Oil. If you have read these forums in depth the big issue with oil production was always the ability to continue industrial civilization in the long term "as we know it today"

Do you think there is a bit of a shakeout happening?

AND further...

do a quick calculation on 86 MBD * $145 BBL oil
= 12,470 BILLION PER DAY
= 174 BILLION PER FORTNIGHT
= 349 BILLION PER MONTH

Run the numbers at $10 oil and watch the frog with the heat getting turned up all the way to $145

Paulsons "magic" bailout package was $700 billion (two months at above prices MAX prices)

Do you think a big sucking sound sloshing money around to oil producing countries could cause "advanced" nations to have stress placed on their economies?

Do you think $4 gallon gas was impacting households and retail sales?

Lots of other ways to look at things. Draw a bigger picture on Peak Oil not just the WTI spot price.

End of Suburbia actually mentions the 7 trillion lost out of the stock market. Kunstler constantly raves about the sustainability of our living arrangement.

Marginal oil production requires $70-80 bbl to be profitable. expect $40 oil to NOT last very long at all.

This is almost a Peak Oil doomer wet dream, with demand destruction closing new investment in hard to get fields. The Brazil Tupi field drilling through rocks etc was a quarter of a billion per drill hole. You can bet they will think carefully before sinking those at $40 bbl oil.

Good luck but I think the doomers are on track and winning handsomely. Thankfully I have made money on my investments by NOT being overly exposed to bad asset allocation and moving quickly when I had a feeling we had reached an event horizon of sorts. :)
"Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
-Italian Proverb
User avatar
Concerned
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1571
Joined: Thu 23 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: I no longer believe in Peak Oil!

Unread postby Concerned » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 04:38:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'H')ere is your only salient argument (and its just not a very good one): Peakers did not determine the extent of the price drop, or some predicted that prices wouldn't drop, therefore the premise that oil is finite is wrong. Wow...really really illogical and bad argument. No soup for you....

If you were actually aware of more things I've written here, you'd be aware that I've never said that oil wasn't finite (of course it isn't, duh). So you are trying to score points by misrepresenting my position. The mistakes peakers make are:

1. Trying to predict when oil production will peak. This is a game for fools. Nobody knows. Period. Some go even farther and automatically assume we've already peaked. Then when another new record is set, they just keep setting back their new prediction for the current year or somewhere else in the next few years. Again, this is a game for fools: Nobody knows. It is factually and scientifically accurate to say, "Oil production will peak someday." But to try to actually put a date on that event does nothing more than set yourself up to make a fool of yourself. Why so many people insist on risking not only their own credibility, but the credibility of their whole movement, by making "predictions" which, 99% of the time, turn out to be false, I have no idea. Someday someone will get it right, but not because they were smart, but only because they were lucky.

2. Assume that just because it's "finite", means that we're near or past peak production. For example, there is a "finite" amount of iron ore on planet earth - but that doesn't necessarily mean we're about to run out of it soon. And, even if world production of iron ore did peak, that does not necessarily mean the world economic system was at the cusp of some terrible precipice. There could be any number of reasons why world iron ore production might peak that don't entail economic catastrophe or even a cause for concern. It could be nothing more than someone has discovered something better than iron ore and steel, and this substitute is being used instead. As I said somewhere else, ironically, peak oilers have a more oil-centric worldview than even cornucopians: They assume without question that peak oil production = world economic problems forever. This does not follow: World oil production could peak for no other reason than demand for oil had peaked - which, in turn, could be caused by increased use of CNG cars, somebody perfected long-range car batteries and fusion power, the world going into a long-term demographic decline, or maybe we've figured out how to download ourselves into super-duper computer networks and become cyborgs who don't need oil-fueled vehicles anymore, or . . . any other of a number of reasons. It is a religious faith that modern civilization must be powered by oil, and therefore if oil production declines, so will civilization.


It's peaked.

Do you honestly think it would have gone from $10 to $147bbl because it's easily on tap.

I'll give you till 2012 and am certain you will be eating humble pie on oil production.
"Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
-Italian Proverb
User avatar
Concerned
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1571
Joined: Thu 23 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: I no longer believe in Peak Oil!

Unread postby Rogozhin » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 04:45:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'H')ere is your only salient argument (and its just not a very good one): Peakers did not determine the extent of the price drop, or some predicted that prices wouldn't drop, therefore the premise that oil is finite is wrong. Wow...really really illogical and bad argument. No soup for you....

If you were actually aware of more things I've written here, you'd be aware that I've never said that oil wasn't finite (of course it isn't, duh). So you are trying to score points by misrepresenting my position. The mistakes peakers make are:

1. Trying to predict when oil production will peak. This is a game for fools. Nobody knows. Period. Some go even farther and automatically assume we've already peaked. Then when another new record is set, they just keep setting back their new prediction for the current year or somewhere else in the next few years. Again, this is a game for fools: Nobody knows. It is factually and scientifically accurate to say, "Oil production will peak someday." But to try to actually put a date on that event does nothing more than set yourself up to make a fool of yourself. Why so many people insist on risking not only their own credibility, but the credibility of their whole movement, by making "predictions" which, 99% of the time, turn out to be false, I have no idea. Someday someone will get it right, but not because they were smart, but only because they were lucky.

2. Assume that just because it's "finite", means that we're near or past peak production. For example, there is a "finite" amount of iron ore on planet earth - but that doesn't necessarily mean we're about to run out of it soon. And, even if world production of iron ore did peak, that does not necessarily mean the world economic system was at the cusp of some terrible precipice. There could be any number of reasons why world iron ore production might peak that don't entail economic catastrophe or even a cause for concern. It could be nothing more than someone has discovered something better than iron ore and steel, and this substitute is being used instead. As I said somewhere else, ironically, peak oilers have a more oil-centric worldview than even cornucopians: They assume without question that peak oil production = world economic problems forever. This does not follow: World oil production could peak for no other reason than demand for oil had peaked - which, in turn, could be caused by increased use of CNG cars, somebody perfected long-range car batteries and fusion power, the world going into a long-term demographic decline, or maybe we've figured out how to download ourselves into super-duper computer networks and become cyborgs who don't need oil-fueled vehicles anymore, or . . . any other of a number of reasons. It is a religious faith that modern civilization must be powered by oil, and therefore if oil production declines, so will civilization.


It's peaked.

Do you honestly think it would have gone from $10 to $147bbl because it's easily on tap.

I'll give you till 2012 and am certain you will be eating humble pie on oil production.


You can give me 2012 (my name is Peter), and in three years I'll be quoting your inane proposition.

I did not prognosticate, strange hegelians without valid premises throwing jizz in a circle were baking cake, without frosting.

Rogo
"Those who long for exaltation look upwards, but I look downward for I am the exalted."

Thus Spake Zarathustra
User avatar
Rogozhin
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 318
Joined: Tue 26 Dec 2006, 04:00:00
Location: Eastern Washington
Top

Re: I no longer believe in Peak Oil!

Unread postby Concerned » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 04:54:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rogozhin', '
')You can give me 2012 (my name is Peter), and in three years I'll be quoting your inane proposition.

I did not prognosticate, strange hegelians without valid premises throwing jizz in a circle were baking cake, without frosting.

Rogo



If by 2012 we are in economic nirvana, real wages have grown, inflation adjusted growth is positive, inflation adjusted dow is positive and to cap this all off if by 2012 we exceed 86 milllion barrels per day I will most humbly eat double and triple helpings of humble pie.

Good luck with philosophy, jizz and cake baking!! As Arnold said in "Raw Deal" don't drink and bake *wink*

EDIT:
Actually if we exceed 86 mbpd in 2012 I will eat humble pie and admit how terribly wrong my judgment was based on current events!
"Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
-Italian Proverb
User avatar
Concerned
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1571
Joined: Thu 23 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: I no longer believe in Peak Oil!

Unread postby MD » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 06:10:49

You people are as jumpy as the stock market.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
User avatar
MD
COB
COB
 
Posts: 4953
Joined: Mon 02 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: On the ball
Top

Re: I no longer believe in Peak Oil!

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 07:20:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'O')ilfinder I'm glad you can distill your arguments to 2 good and worthwhile points (even if I disagree with them).

I think that we need to continue to hear from you in the years to come and I hope I and others don't run you off by critiqueing your main points.

The first one is that we should not try and predict the peaking of world oil production. I'm not sure why you insit on this
OilFinder insists on this because he believes that we should never do anything to prepare for bad events, even if we are aware of them and could do something to prevent the event or adapt to the event. He has stated this plainly enough. Consequently, all discussions about what to do about peak oil are irrelevant and wasteful to OilFinder. This is one reason he seeks to try to disprove that oil discoveries will not replace production in the future (at least not consistently).
User avatar
TonyPrep
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2842
Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Top

Re: I no longer believe in Peak Oil!

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 07:41:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', 'I') still believe in finite oil, but peak oil is just not possible anymore.
Those two points are incompatible. If oil is finite, then peak production of oil will happen. Only if oil is not finite and if the resources needed to produce it are not finite and if geological constraints don't limit its production, would peak oil not be possible anymore. Throughout all of these pages, you have not explained yourself, which is why many posters have suggested that you don't know what peak oil is.
User avatar
TonyPrep
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2842
Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Top

Re: I no longer believe in Peak Oil!

Unread postby Heineken » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 10:12:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', 'Y')ou don't understand. You are being forced into fear. You are all being misled by those in charge.

Certain people in society need to believe there is something wrong with the system and they know it. They are using these "so-called" experts to make you afraid, in the hope that you will spread this fear to others.


And who is "in charge," Jason? Surely not us fringe peakniks.

The ones who are really in charge---well, the last thing they want is for people to be "forced into fear." The want the opposite. Sheeple buying SUVs, fighting oil wars, paying taxes, living in ignorance of what's really going on.

We're teetering on the edge of a global depression, and you think there's nothing wrong with the system?

Yours is an amazing post, considering all the evidence you've been exposed to here, and possibly in PO- and environment-related books, if you've read any.

I suppose you don't believe in global warming anymore, either?

My impression is that you've had a breakdown of sorts. You just can't take it anymore. You're ready to return to the Matrix.

Hope you like the steak.
"Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog

"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---I & my bro.
User avatar
Heineken
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7051
Joined: Tue 14 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Rural Virginia
Top

Re: I no longer believe in Peak Oil!

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 10:17:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')My impression is that you've had a breakdown of sorts. You just can't take it anymore. You're ready to return to the Matrix.

Hope you like the steak.


He's just playing like he is want to do. Nothing more; nothing less.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
User avatar
wisconsin_cur
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4576
Joined: Thu 10 May 2007, 03:00:00
Location: 45 degrees North. 883 feet above sealevel.
Top

Re: I no longer believe in Peak Oil!

Unread postby mkwin » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 12:53:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')DIT:
Actually if we exceed 86 mbpd in 2012 I will eat humble pie and admit how terribly wrong my judgment was based on current events!


We exceeded 86 mbpd this year. If demand was there we could produce 88-89 mbpd now. Spare capacity is now around 4 mbpd back at 2003 levels. Hence the price reversal to that level.
User avatar
mkwin
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 625
Joined: Fri 01 Jun 2007, 03:00:00
Top

Re: I no longer believe in Peak Oil!

Unread postby bodigami » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 14:51:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '(')...)
Yours is an amazing post, considering all the evidence you've been exposed to here, and possibly in PO- and environment-related books, if you've read any.

I suppose you don't believe in global warming anymore, either?

My impression is that you've had a breakdown of sorts. You just can't take it anymore. You're ready to return to the Matrix.

Hope you like the steak.


He couldn't take it anymore when it became more real. His faith is weak :shock: :lol:

Now seriously, many relate Peak Oil with ever increasing oil prices... and now feel like fools.
bodigami
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 1921
Joined: Wed 26 Jul 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: I no longer believe in Peak Oil!

Unread postby TWilliam » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 15:00:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'P')eaker #1 says:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'Y')es yes- I agree there are some posters here who postulated that even a strong economic downturn would not cause an immense price collapse. I will also fess up that I saw a floor at around 80-90$. 40 $ seemed inconceivable.

Peaker #2 says:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '[')b]Jeesus, AGAIN with the 'no one ever thought it'd go so low ever again'...

B-U-L-L-S-H-I-T

I rest my case. Peakers are pretty much just making it up as the go along. :cry:


And what case would that be, exactly?

Unless I misunderstand, you are claiming that no one in the 'peak oil movement' (whatever-T-F that's supposed to be) ever anticipated these kinds of price drops, which is patently untrue, and which you would know if you'd actually been on this forum for more than eight months. I've been here since 2004, and I have repeatedly seen people express the expectation that such wild price swings would occur, as well as various authors being referenced saying the same thing. As thuja has subsequently put it,
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'H')ere is what most folks who have written about Peak Oil describe...

1- Demand increases to the level of supply. Supply cannot keep pace. Prices skyrocket.

2- Demand crashes as price goes too high. Glut in supply leads to price crash.

Now repeat 1 and 2 over and over again.

That is exactly correct, and your assertion apparently to the contrary (which echoes several others here in the last month or so) is what I was calling bullsh*t on, nothing more. So maybe it surprised thuja that it's dropped this far, but thuja is far from 'everybody'.

The only people that I'm aware of insisting that oil prices 'would only go up from now on' are those that haven't sufficiently educated themselves on, and understood, the issues involved...
"It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "
User avatar
TWilliam
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2591
Joined: Sun 28 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Top

Re: I no longer believe in Peak Oil!

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 16:33:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'W')e exceeded 86 mbpd this year. If demand was there we could produce 88-89 mbpd now. Spare capacity is now around 4 mbpd back at 2003 levels. Hence the price reversal to that level.
You're exceedingly well informed. How do you know that capacity is at around 90 mbpd?

86 was exceed, but only by counting biofuels (which is not crude oil and arguably not energy positive).

The EIA's STEO claims that consumption exceeded production in September and October. The markets are a little disconnected from reality at the moment.

By the way, the EIA average production estimate, for the year up to August, is 85.899 mbpd. That looks likely to be lower for the full year.
User avatar
TonyPrep
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2842
Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Top

Re: I no longer believe in Peak Oil!

Unread postby mkwin » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 17:11:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'W')e exceeded 86 mbpd this year. If demand was there we could produce 88-89 mbpd now. Spare capacity is now around 4 mbpd back at 2003 levels. Hence the price reversal to that level.
You're exceedingly well informed. How do you know that capacity is at around 90 mbpd?

86 was exceed, but only by counting biofuels (which is not crude oil and arguably not energy positive).

The EIA's STEO claims that consumption exceeded production in September and October. The markets are a little disconnected from reality at the moment.

By the way, the EIA average production estimate, for the year up to August, is 85.899 mbpd. That looks likely to be lower for the full year.


yes it was all liquids production. It was hit in the first quarter.

I don't have a link on spare capacity - I have read a number of articles from organisations like the IEA in the FT among other publications.

We did have 2 mbpd capacity and lots of projects are coming on stream or have done this year. These are the projects that were planned 4 years ago - better late than never.

Image

Source: Megaprojects

(The above is excellent work by Theoildrum)

Back to the original OP, whether peak oil happens in the short-term depends on if the scheduled production supply increases from 2011-2012 onwards. Watch the 2012 figure closely over the next 18 months!
User avatar
mkwin
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 625
Joined: Fri 01 Jun 2007, 03:00:00
Top
PreviousNext
Post a reply

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 190 guests