[jasonraymondson]

I was a 100% believer, but recent events have shown me that we have not hit peak, and a world wide collapse will prevent peak oil from ever coming to fruition.

I still believe in finite oil, but peak oil is just not possible anymore.

A lot of you are stating volatility, but this is a complete focking reversal.

We are standing on the precipice of something greater.

I really hate having egg on my face, I am tired of getting laughed at for being a doomer.

[EnergyUnlimited]

Anyway, do you know what "peak oil" actually means?

It is about peak production, not peak price.

[gnm]

Unless the entire planet stops using oil before the peak (providing we haven't hit peak already) it WILL happen. I personally think it has already happened. Peaking in production of any finite resource is a given not an if presuming you continue to use it.

-G

[jasonraymondson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'A')nyway, do you know what "peak oil" actually means?

It is about peak production, not peak price.

[the_sword]

Commodities (all of them) are priced on the last barrel - bushel - dozen.... When there is excess either from decreased demand on increased supply prices collapse generally below the price of production ( at least below the price of the marginal producers )... this happens because the market is trying to find equilibrium between supply-demand.


What we are experiencing now is a demand drop, not a supply increase. This has 1) collapsed prices and 2) guaranteed the majors won't bet the farm on high cost oil when demand rebounds.

The jury is still out on whether we have hit "peak oil" but if we have this is the biggest gift to an investor.... The question is do you have the balls to bet on it?!?

[mkwin]

We have $40 because spare capacity has built due to a lot of new supply coming online which will continue over the next couple of years from 2011 new supply looks low again.

I have never been a doomer but still believe we will have serious problems due to insuffcient oil production by 2012-2015.

I believe it will cause repeated recessions until we move away from the oil based economy; there will be surges in price and then big drops but we won't all turn into zombies and start fighting over food in shops like some doomers think.

[the_sword]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'If we have hit it, why is oil now $40.00 a barrel.')

Because of 1)speculative selling of oil futures and 2) Demand has fallen more than supplies have declined.

Watch how many how priced oil fields get pushed.... get'll whack the majors now, and they won't want to get burnt again when demand picks up.

[jasonraymondson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the_sword', 'C')ommodities (all of them) are priced on the last barrel - bushel - dozen.... When there is excess either from decreased demand on increased supply prices collapse generally below the price of production ( at least below the price of the marginal producers )... this happens because the market is trying to find equilibrium between supply-demand.


What we are experiencing now is a demand drop, not a supply increase. This has 1) collapsed prices and 2) guaranteed the majors won't bet the farm on high cost oil when demand rebounds.

The jury is still out on whether we have hit "peak oil" but if we have this is the biggest gift to an investor.... The question is do you have the balls to bet on it?!?

[the_sword]

[code]Are you all going to try to convince me that we are using 1/4 th oil we were only 4 months ago?[code]

Absolutely not, but the price to supply is not a linear equation.

How high to you think a 2 dollar gallon of milk would be if we had a shortage of 5%? Do you think milk would be 2.10 per gallon?? I'd be more like 5-10 dollars/gallon.

What I'm trying to say minor supply excesses of shortage are greatly amplified when it comes to price.

Heck, we were worried about a shortage in corn earlier this year and corn went to 8 dollars / bushel..... If we really did have a legitimate shortage it would have been much much higher....

[RedStateGreen]

Price has nothing to do with peak oil.

But if you don't believe in peak oil, why are you here?

[NoWorries]

He is an apostate. Banish him!

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'A')nyway, do you know what "peak oil" actually means?

It is about peak production, not peak price.

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', 'I') was a 100% believer,

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', '
')Are you all going to try to convince me that we are using 1/4 th oil we were only 4 months ago?

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', 'I') was a 100% believer

[sicophiliac]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the_sword', 'C')ommodities (all of them) are priced on the last barrel - bushel - dozen.... When there is excess either from decreased demand on increased supply prices collapse generally below the price of production ( at least below the price of the marginal producers )... this happens because the market is trying to find equilibrium between supply-demand.


What we are experiencing now is a demand drop, not a supply increase. This has 1) collapsed prices and 2) guaranteed the majors won't bet the farm on high cost oil when demand rebounds.

The jury is still out on whether we have hit "peak oil" but if we have this is the biggest gift to an investor.... The question is do you have the balls to bet on it?!?

[NeoPeasant]

Peak is peak, whether or not above ground economic causes pre-empt below ground geological ones.

this idea is not new around here.

"I think it is quite likely that peak oil production will occur due to the effects of a recession dropping demand for an extended period, followed by the inability of the oil industry to reach previous production levels once demand begins to recover. This would mean peak would occur earlier and at a lower production rate than it would have if it had just been a matter of physical production limits.

I have been reading about the collapsing suburban housing market and it's implications for the greater economy (you know, that stuff Kunstler has been raving about all along) and the news hasn't been good. I think peak could be at hand not due to the inability to produce more, but due to a failing economy's inability to demand more. We could even see a substantial drop in oil prices due to falling demand." -Me, in Aug. 2006

http://peakoil.com/post350561.html#350561

[mefistofeles]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') still believe in finite oil, but peak oil is just not possible anymore.

[jasonraymondson]

until I say differently, peak oil is dead.

so speaks zarathustra

[mos6507]

So you shall be leaving us shortly, Mr. Raymondson?