by Peleg » Sun 27 Jul 2008, 14:18:28
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', 'I')'m pretty convinced that the only thing that will motivate conservation is high prices. If you try to dictate conservation measures, then the fuel will just get wasted elsewhere. If we really wanted to cause conservation, we'd impose a 50 dollar a barrel import tariff with the proceeds going to fill the SPR. $6 a gallon diesel will create conservation in the trucking industry far better than a 55 mph limit will.
Aboslutely, and my economists friends would tells us that the only mechanism for controlling demand is price. Every chang ein the market place fundamentals has to be allowed to be reflected in price. Now I agree the government has a responsibility to do some redistribution to make sure that the cold hard blade of the market does not lead to insurrection, but for the most part price has to be left to it's own.
Conservation will make it seem like more fuel is available therefore someone will take advantage of that and grow their business, which leads us to an even bigger gasoline and diesel dependence. The unfettered market wants to take the path whereby the poor are first denied the right of use and this fuel death creeps up the income demographic from there. However there are alot of feedback loops, we need to understand the relationship between micro and macro economics and sociology, physics, times rates of change. We could lost in that jungle of one faceted proposals. The driver of depletion however will not go away, that is the forcing function.
Probably the best we could do is a Manhattan Project for alternative energy with an ever increasing stepped domestic tax on oil consumption. Some suggest that scarcity imposes it's own tax in the form of rising prices. However this tax is imposed in a manner insulting to the principles of America, equal opportunity, freedom... If we are not careful peak oil will lead us very quickly to a demarcated plutocracy and eventually to share cropping and perhaps someday feudalism. We must apply wisdom to the unwieldy beast of market dynamics based upon greed because the greatest resource of America is it's people. We do not want to insult the conscience of the American people any further. There will be social ramifications to it we are not prepared for, a series of actions and reactions that reinforce each other over decades and move us toward civil war. Look at the Civil War. The issue brewed and percolated for decades. Decisions were made along the way that locked the southern economy into slave labor almost forcing their hand when the north with it's industrial economy found conscience easier to pay for.