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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Canadian Stock Market Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Toronto Stock Exchange - what to buy? Fellow Canadians?

Postby rockdoc123 » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 21:37:48

You didn't mention Canadian energy stocks. Currently most of them are trading at about 1X forward cash flow/share if you assume an average $60/bbl oil price for 2009. Back when oil was this price before these companies were trading at 5-7X cash flow/share. I saw a recent Wood Gundy analysis that suggested all of the Canadian oil majors with a target price about 80% higher than they are now.
If you belive in peak oil then this should be a no-brainer as long as you are willing to wait out the recession. Bargain city, especially if some of them get taken over as happened in the late 90's.
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Re: Toronto Stock Exchange - what to buy? Fellow Canadians?

Postby drew » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 21:56:37

It's been a near disaster for me the past two years. Bought a few stupid things like BCE. Sold other things way too early. Luckily my mistakes have left me essentially even.

I am now holding Barrick, CIBC, and U. The U was also one of the mistakes. The CIBC is paying 3.50 a share. I paid 48 bucks for said shares. The dividend is 7.2%

The Barrick I might play on volatility, the CIBC I'll probably let sit.

In any event, I feel like we are in a bear rally, and I don't know when to get off the train.

It doesn't feel like time yet.

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Re: Toronto Stock Exchange - what to buy? Fellow Canadians?

Postby MOCKBA » Wed 03 Dec 2008, 23:53:38

Generally I decided to stear clear from Canada only listed equities for multiple reasons, but for PO faithful I would like to point out that most of oil trusts now trade bellow book value (and yeild around 20% annualy for now), i.e. there is money buying a company lock stock and barrel and selling it out (assuming that you could fetch book value for assets in a fire-sale, read like in raiding Canada oil sector by Milken and such)... What that means (apart from Canadian government being extremely successful in destroying value) is that sooner or later the value would be discovered by those who sit on some cash (like dudes from Middle East or China) and no matter how much Prime Minister would scream that Canada is not for sale, in fact it is... In the mean time trusts would pay back some of the capital, but once they transfer over into regular entities they would trade around 2x book, i.e. in addition to some cashflow for couple years there is a chance for doubling equity.

As for U... One could buy as much uranium, gold, silver or oil they could afford at the moment or one could buy means to produce a lot more of that uranium, gold, silver or oil... Everyone makes their own decission... I don't buy Cameco because it is still too expensive, but I like DNN that is managed by the same guys who listed U to hedge their holdings of the metal at the expence of drew.
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Re: Toronto Stock Exchange - what to buy? Fellow Canadians?

Postby Denny » Thu 04 Dec 2008, 00:34:06

I'd give you my opinions, but it may be the kiss of economic death for you. :cry:

Seriously, some of the utility stocks have some very good dividends and should hold their own. Also, I'd follow some of the beaten down resource and energy stocks and see when they break out above their 150 day moving average befoe buying. Or follow the XEG and XGD iShares shares on the TSX as their prices are more stable, and you are likely to see the breakout happen earlier. Be patient.
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Re: Toronto Stock Exchange - what to buy? Fellow Canadians?

Postby Blacksmith » Thu 04 Dec 2008, 11:05:41

Whatever you do don't talk to an economic advisor.
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Re: Toronto Stock Exchange - what to buy? Fellow Canadians?

Postby lowem » Thu 04 Dec 2008, 11:33:56

The Royal Canadian Mint has got a bunch of fans over here in Singapore loading up on the latest batch of 2009 Canadian Gold Maple Leaf :)

Besides those, out of my favourite Canadian energy trusts, two are trading at a price/book ratio of 0.7, and the other two are right around 1.0. Apologies to those who are all in at this point, but those who have cash-flow and don't mind receiving dividend yields of 20% or so could consider doing a bit of accumulation.

But be careful since we can't be too sure whether the recent low of $45.30 is the bottom for oil prices this round.
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