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I'm starting to feel lost on this forum.

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Re: I'm starting to feel lost on this forum.

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 29 Nov 2008, 14:18:06

I'm not giving up, Alex, just going through a mood. :oops: It'll pass, no doubt. :oops: I don't think it particularly has anything to do with anything "real," just a brain cloud.

But thank you. :)
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Re: I'm starting to feel lost on this forum.

Unread postby Pops » Sat 29 Nov 2008, 15:38:29

It kind of bums me out that the old farts feel there is nothing left to talk about.

There are new farts showing up all the time who need direction - that is what Old Farts do.

If you are a Mod who needs a break, then take it; if you are an senior Member who needs a ,then do likewise but come back.

One thing we all know is the purpose of the site is not gone - just off the front burner for a time and the message is bound to change over time.

Don't quit; adjust.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: I'm starting to feel lost on this forum.

Unread postby mgibbons19 » Sat 29 Nov 2008, 15:38:55

This hit me a while ago as well. After a while, one does get tired of the recycled discussions, as well as some of the perennially stupid arguments, like why SUVs suck or don't suck.

In the same vein, having been on the board for 4+ years now, I realize that this is not something that is going to hit one day and the whole world fall apart. That doesn't mean that we don't have a very serious problem, just that history doesn't happen on my timeline, nor does it necessarily happen quickly.

But, I still respect many of the posters, and there's often (certainly not always) some decent discussion surrounding current goings on. I do wish it was a little easier to sift through the bigfoot sightings to get to the good stuff, but it is what it is.
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Re: I'm starting to feel lost on this forum.

Unread postby Pops » Sat 29 Nov 2008, 15:54:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mgibbons19', '.').. but it is what it is.

That is the whole deal; add what you can to help who you can and let the rest sink.

If it don't sink, ignore it, pretty easy.
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Re: I'm starting to feel lost on this forum.

Unread postby ki11ercane » Sat 29 Nov 2008, 19:09:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'A')s for roccman, isn't it uncanny that things really started to fly apart after he said he was bugging out?
Actually, I have noticed that there seems to be a general feeling of ..what to call it?... dismay?...depression?... among many of the posters recently. I won't list them (posters) all here, but it is interesting that so many have come to the same conclusion when comparing the news/info, the interpetations of the news/info, and their real lives.
Is it because the majority of posters here are more self-aware than "the average" person?
Awareness can lead to depression and obsession. It can also lead to action. Like several posters here, when I realized that the free ride of oil was over, I worried about it. Now, I plan for it, as action tends to remove the depressive aspects of where we are going then simply posting about how bad it will all become. I also view the world a lot differently then I did two years ago when I started prepping. I care more about the people in my immediate circle then humanity at large. Does that make me selfish and weird? Quite possibly when seen outside my immediate family. But probably no more so then a tribe on the tundra 10,000 years ago.

I posted something along this line somewhere in the bowels of PO.com about a year+ ago:

"Take a tape measure, and measure 3 feet out from your body and make a mark. Now, draw a circle around that mark. Everyone that can fit inside that circle is all the people you can safely and accurately help in the coming years. That's all you're responsible for."

No, it is not selfish. You simply CANNOT save the world alone and the world should not expect you to. It's a sandwich you simply cannot take a big enough bite out of. If people thought "locally," then acting globally is just a result. And I am not talking about tree hugging, recycling, etc. I am simply referring to an attitude change on the reality of where we are socially and economically today and by doing nothing will make the future become.

I've already drawn my circle. I've already put my people inside it. For the rest, those people will have to draw their own circles.
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Re: I'm starting to feel lost on this forum.

Unread postby outcast » Sat 29 Nov 2008, 19:12:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o now we're still hanging out on peakoil.com but there isn't a lot of peak oil to talk about anymore. It's like a bunch of concertgoers sitting in their seats being told the act has been postponed.

PO seems to be moving goalposts, everytime you get "close" it keeps getting pushed back.

I think part of the problem is that their sense of vindication when oil prices were high vanished when the price collapsed and it turned out to be an enormous speculative bubble.
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Re: I'm starting to feel lost on this forum.

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 29 Nov 2008, 20:45:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ki11ercane', 'I')'ve already drawn my circle. I've already put my people inside it. For the rest, those people will have to draw their own circles.

I wish I could get my people into the circle. At least we were able to talk a little about economic hardships on Thanksgiving, so that seems like a big step for a family with the "No Talking Rule."
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Re: I'm starting to feel lost on this forum.

Unread postby threadbear » Sat 29 Nov 2008, 21:00:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Goatlady', ' ')Arguments are uncomfortable.
True. But (with occasional setbacks) I've learned how to disagree better, and to handle others' disagreement better. You learn how to leave most of the emotion out. You learn that you can just walk away. This is a skill worth developing, as I see it.

I find the social interaction invaluable. I can go back over an argument and actually see myself in action. In a verbal argument, I forget or ignore where I've belittled , insulted, or been too thin skinned. Can't do that as easily when its text. I value my friends here, but value more people, like deMolay, who used to be an "enemy", until we began to focus on common ground and try to view our differing opinions through the lens of friendship. It's remarkable how much we actually have in common, and how similar our world views really are.

VisionMaster--This to me, anyway, is what spiritual growth is all about. This format is a fantastic aid to understanding self and others, beginning with disagreement and often resolving through a more careful examination and appreciation of other's world views.

Does anyone really think that they're drawn here primarily for oil issues? That may be the initial interest but it quickly expands into other dimensions.
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Re: I'm starting to feel lost on this forum.

Unread postby patience » Sat 29 Nov 2008, 21:11:30

On target, Threadbear! I enjoy the peole here tremendously. The issues range all over the map, which gives great depth to the interaction.

Economics, though a symptom of PO, is at the forefront just now, as had been predicted here, I'm told. So, my focus has been there for a time, yet the tightly woven issues of energy, climate, food, and economics continue to grip everyone as would be expected. The result has been to showcase the many and varied talents represented here, and given me much more than I ever expected on a forum. Love it!
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Re: I'm starting to feel lost on this forum.

Unread postby TWilliam » Sat 29 Nov 2008, 21:13:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'I') think part of the problem is that their sense of vindication when oil prices were high vanished when the price collapsed and it turned out to be an enormous speculative bubble.

You know, I keep seeing comments along these line here, and it really gets tiring. Just about all of the PO prognosticators that have any decent understanding of the issue have been quite clear in stating that wide, protracted price swings are to be expected. The current reprieve is not the least bit surprising to anyone who's been around here for any length of time. If anything, it further vindicates our perspective, since it is yet one more expectation realized in this ongoing debacle...
"It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "
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Re: I'm starting to feel lost on this forum.

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sat 29 Nov 2008, 21:28:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'D')oes anyone really think that they're drawn here primarily for oil issues? That may be the initial interest but it quickly expands into other dimensions.

I came here seeking a better understanding of the underlying reasons for the econmic spin down I saw coming with the collapse of Bear Stearns. What I found on Peak Oil were many people who had been watching the spin downward through the lense of Oil Depletion issues since approximately 2004, from the earliest memberships I see listed. A very bright bunch of prescient people overall, though sometimes fairly narrow in their thinking process.

Clearly Peak Oil is different now as the Economic Tsunami swirls about us. Its quite different even then just a few months ago. There were more posts about Energy issues and Climate issues. Now its a one stop shop for the Economics & Finance forum mostly. For good reason, this is by far the proximal problem facing everyone here, its hitting way before the oil actually disappears.

Some people appear to be taking the changes very hard, for a variety of reasons. Plans people made based on sustainable farms have problems they did not forsee. Nest Eggs have been wiped out here as in the society at large. The tension is palpable in some of the threads as more members are hit directly, losing their jobs. For those who still are operating more or less in normal mode but who follow the threads here, they exist with the Sword of Damocles hanging over their heads wondering "When? When will it hit ME?"

I find the discussions here to be a valuable source of information, and for me at least it provides a way for me analyze my own reactions to the coming storm. Its a great forum, and though it can be depressing, I think most of us would be more depressed without this place.

A Toast to Peak Oil and its membership; "Live Long and Prosper".

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Re: I'm starting to feel lost on this forum.

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Sat 29 Nov 2008, 21:28:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'A')s for roccman, isn't it uncanny that things really started to fly apart after he said he was bugging out?
Actually, I have noticed that there seems to be a general feeling of ..what to call it?... dismay?...depression?... among many of the posters recently. I won't list them (posters) all here, but it is interesting that so many have come to the same conclusion when comparing the news/info, the interpetations of the news/info, and their real lives. Is it because the majority of posters here are more self-aware than "the average" person?

I am so glad the general population isn't as angry and unhappy sounding as so many here seem to be these past few months. Several long time members have 'gone over the edge' and just exploded. It's kind of a drag. There seems to be far more mean and unkind remarks posted lately too. I'm not sure what's causing this, but I've certainly noticed it as well Ferretlover and it's a bit unsettling.

One major contributing factor is the economy, IMO. As it declines, it can carve away at one's personal sense of safety and worth. Peoples self-esteem can drop. This, of course, can generate sadness which in turn will change people a bit and cause them to act unfriendly to others. This is just a lay observation, and I may be entirely wrong....


In addition, the recent US elections have ignited a great deal of hostilities and bad blood among otherwise level-headed posters. Not only have Republicans taken it in the shorts as to election results, but they've had to weather endless Bush-bashing, anti-Cheney sentiment, and anti-Palin jokes galore.

Add to that the economic meltdown, and November has been a bad month all-around.
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Re: I'm starting to feel lost on this forum.

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 29 Nov 2008, 21:38:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '[')though sometimes fairly narrow in their thinking process.


Like you're clairvoyant or something. :roll:

(not getting along with RE, never have - anyone want to mediate us?)
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Re: I'm starting to feel lost on this forum.

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sat 29 Nov 2008, 21:54:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '[')though sometimes fairly narrow in their thinking process.
Like you're clairvoyant or something.

Its called perspective. The ability to see the forest rather than just the trees. Some people are noticeably lacking in this ability. I won't mention any names. ;-)

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Re: I'm starting to feel lost on this forum.

Unread postby outcast » Sat 29 Nov 2008, 22:05:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou know, I keep seeing comments along these line here, and it really gets tiring. Just about all of the PO prognosticators that have any decent understanding of the issue have been quite clear in stating that wide, protracted price swings are to be expected. The current reprieve is not the least bit surprising to anyone who's been around here for any length of time. If anything, it further vindicates our perspective, since it is yet one more expectation realized in this ongoing debacle...

So the massive amounts of loose money being dumped into the oil futures markets had nothing to do with rising prices?
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Re: I'm starting to feel lost on this forum.

Unread postby Heineken » Sat 29 Nov 2008, 23:06:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o now we're still hanging out on peakoil.com but there isn't a lot of peak oil to talk about anymore. It's like a bunch of concertgoers sitting in their seats being told the act has been postponed.
PO seems to be moving goalposts, everytime you get "close" it keeps getting pushed back.
I think part of the problem is that their sense of vindication when oil prices were high vanished when the price collapsed and it turned out to be an enormous speculative bubble.

The oil price isn't the only speculative bubble that popped.

So did the whole economy.

Consider the connection.

We predicted exactly this event.

If the economy ever recovers, so will the oil price rise. Worse than ever.
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Re: I'm starting to feel lost on this forum.

Unread postby mos6507 » Sun 30 Nov 2008, 00:15:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '
')You know, I keep seeing comments along these line here, and it really gets tiring. Just about all of the PO prognosticators that have any decent understanding of the issue have been quite clear in stating that wide, protracted price swings are to be expected. The current reprieve is not the least bit surprising to anyone who's been around here for any length of time. If anything, it further vindicates our perspective, since it is yet one more expectation realized in this ongoing debacle...


Sorry, but you are wrong on two counts. Matt Simmons, for instance, was pretty much preaching armageddon a few months back. As for the real cause of the drop in oil prices:

link

"Falls in demand in top energy consumer the United States and other industrialised countries have helped drive U.S. crude down almost $100 from a record peak of more than $147 a barrel in July. It fell by almost a third last month, its biggest monthly drop ever.

Global oil demand is expected to decline slightly this year and next, the first fall in a generation because of the world economic downturn, according to a Reuters poll."

And no, the world economy did not just snap because of $147/bbl oil unless you want to just ignore the credit crisis.

This is exhibit A of a peak oilers jumping the gun on interpreting current events in order to hold onto a biased world view. We will surely still see yo yo oil prices and oil price-led demand destruction, but it isn't happening right now. It's really important to be objective here because the laymen won't take you seriously if you spin every single news story as being some indirect validation of peak oil (Church Lady Syndrome). The world has more dynamics to it than just peak oil.
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Re: I'm starting to feel lost on this forum.

Unread postby mos6507 » Sun 30 Nov 2008, 00:26:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '[')though sometimes fairly narrow in their thinking process.
Like you're clairvoyant or something.

Its called perspective. The ability to see the forest rather than just the trees. Some people are noticeably lacking in this ability. I won't mention any names. ;-)

Reverse Engineer



This board needs checks and balances otherwise it's just a bunch of people with identical viewpoints fellating eachother like on the 911 troother thread.
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Re: I'm starting to feel lost on this forum.

Unread postby TWilliam » Sun 30 Nov 2008, 03:00:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '
')You know, I keep seeing comments along these line here, and it really gets tiring. Just about all of the PO prognosticators that have any decent understanding of the issue have been quite clear in stating that wide, protracted price swings are to be expected. The current reprieve is not the least bit surprising to anyone who's been around here for any length of time. If anything, it further vindicates our perspective, since it is yet one more expectation realized in this ongoing debacle...


Sorry, but you are wrong on two counts. Matt Simmons, for instance, was pretty much preaching armageddon a few months back.

Not everyone in the PO camp agrees with Simmons on all points...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s for the real cause of the drop in oil prices:

"Falls in demand in top energy consumer the United States and other industrialised countries have helped drive U.S. crude down almost $100 from a record peak of more than $147 a barrel in July. It fell by almost a third last month, its biggest monthly drop ever.

Global oil demand is expected to decline slightly this year and next, the first fall in a generation because of the world economic downturn, according to a Reuters poll."

And no, the world economy did not just snap because of $147/bbl oil unless you want to just ignore the credit crisis.

This is exhibit A of a peak oilers jumping the gun on interpreting current events in order to hold onto a biased world view. We will surely still see yo yo oil prices and oil price-led demand destruction, but it isn't happening right now. It's really important to be objective here because the laymen won't take you seriously if you spin every single news story as being some indirect validation of peak oil (Church Lady Syndrome). The world has more dynamics to it than just peak oil.


Let me see if I can make this simple:

Part 1)

Cheap oil --------> Cheap fuel ----------> Public unaware of approaching supply ceiling ---------> "So what if I have to commute 60 miles each way? Gas is cheap!" -----------> Drive 'til you can buy ----------> Housing & credit bubbles, aided by predatory lenders --------> Enormous economic and monetary expansion

Part 2)

"Uhh Houston, it appears we may be having some supply problems in the not-too-distant future..." -----------> "Damn, this black stuff might be in short supply soon! Better stock up..." + speculators smell an opportunity ----------> Oil prices skyrocket ---------> fuel costs quadruple in a matter of months -----------> "Damn honey, this 120 miles a day is killing our budget. We need to move closer to town!" -------------> "Oh sh*t, we're underwater on our house and can't sell it now because no one else can afford to live way out here either and home values are tumbling and damn, we just hit the reset on our no-doc, low initial rate mortgage too!" ----------> Default City ----------> Banking crisis -----------> Credit crisis ---------> Spending crisis ----------> Less demand for fuel and production feedstock -----------> Less demand for oil ----------> Oil prices drop ------------> Speculators hit the exits -----------> Prices drop further

Part 3, assuming TPTB somehow manage to jump start things again)

Lather --------> Rinse ---------> Repeat


This is of course a simplified illustration. There are obviously a number of additional factors, but this serves I think to demonstrate the basic progression. The point I wish to make here is that this progression, as well as many of those additional factors (including the sub-prime resets), was enumerated on this site well before the housing bubble even topped, much less popped. This has nothing to do with 'interpreting current events', it has to do with seeing ahead of time that these events would unfold, based on an understanding of the fundamental role that hydrocarbon energy plays in our entire socio-economic system.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'S')o the massive amounts of loose money being dumped into the oil futures markets had nothing to do with rising prices?

See above...
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Re: I'm starting to feel lost on this forum.

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sun 30 Nov 2008, 03:02:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '
')
Let me see if I can make this simple:



well put

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