by mos6507 » Sun 30 Nov 2008, 00:15:52
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '
')You know, I keep seeing comments along these line here, and it really gets tiring. Just about all of the PO prognosticators that have any decent understanding of the issue have been quite clear in stating that wide, protracted price swings are to be expected. The current reprieve is not the least bit surprising to anyone who's been around here for any length of time. If anything, it further vindicates our perspective, since it is yet one more expectation realized in this ongoing debacle...
Sorry, but you are wrong on two counts. Matt Simmons, for instance, was pretty much preaching armageddon a few months back. As for the real cause of the drop in oil prices:
link
"Falls in demand in top energy consumer the United States and other industrialised countries have helped drive U.S. crude down almost $100 from a record peak of more than $147 a barrel in July. It fell by almost a third last month, its biggest monthly drop ever.
Global oil demand is expected to decline slightly this year and next, the first fall in a generation
because of the world economic downturn, according to a Reuters poll."
And no, the world economy did not just snap because of $147/bbl oil unless you want to just ignore the credit crisis.
This is exhibit A of a peak oilers jumping the gun on interpreting current events in order to hold onto a biased world view. We will surely still see yo yo oil prices and oil price-led demand destruction, but it isn't happening right now. It's really important to be objective here because the laymen won't take you seriously if you spin every single news story as being some indirect validation of peak oil (Church Lady Syndrome). The world has more dynamics to it than just peak oil.