[Alcassin]

Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. Aldous Huxley

[dohboi]

Hirsch is a very clever fellow.

I think he's doing something like what was advocated in Lakov's book Don't Think about an Elephant where it is pointed out (among other things) that no one can avoid thinking about an elephant (for example) when told not to do so, but most people quickly dismiss and forget a straightforward command to "Think about Elephants."

Look at the discussion his comments have generated here and over at TOD. And he managed to get this message full of terms like into (arguably) the main financial paper in the world, a text chalk full of terms peak oil concepts and terminology, all of them gogglable and wikiable.

We're now in psyop mode. Read up on effective persuasion theories. They are often counterintuitive.

[ROCKMAN]

Maybe dohboi. I don't know of the man well enough to guess his true intent. But there were those very few voices in the wilderness who where proclaiming years ago the potential risk to the economy from all those sub prime loans being written. They were drowned out by all those voices testifying that all was well and there were no worries. If the supporters of lending to folks who couldn't normally qualify for a home loan were really trying to warn us of the risk then they greatly failed. I suspect Mr. Hirsh will be no more successful in such an effort. Especially in the forthcoming time of "change and hope".

[dohboi]

As the author of the Hirsch Report, I think he qualifies as someone who was an important voice in the wilderness. I don't know much more about him myself and I may be completely misjudging his motives and the effect his statements will have.

Good point about "change and hope," though. The need for hope is at once an admission of and a denial of empowerment. Basevich has some interesting thoughts on hope specifically in relation to electoral politics in his book Limits to Power which I highly recommend. He compares our attitude toward presidential candidates to a battered wife that every day hopes her husband has changed for the better, only to be brutally disappointed again and again. Her hope keeps her from taking things into her own hands.

[MrBean]

Todays market wrap-up of financialsense.com was also about PO, named "Bridge too far":
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')lobal oil depletion ahead

The Obama Administration is not likely to acknowledge Peak Oil, although the staff has no doubt seen the reports and statistics. If the new administration were to agree that Peak Oil is upon us, it would have to go all out, drilling in areas his constituency opposes and pushing hard for rapid construction of nuclear power plants, which Obama has previously not supported. And yet when the global economy revs up again in 2010 or even 2011, the demand for energy will be explosive and enduring. The global oil supply will be depleting 9.1% next year according to the latest IEA report. The IEA (International Energy Agency) forecasts that China, India and other developing countries' demand will require investments of $360 billion each year until 2030. The agency says even with that investment, the annual rate of output decline will still be 6.4%. According to the IEA report, the global energy complex needs a minimum investment of a $1 trillion a year, and needs to find the equivalent of one Kuwait annually in order to replenish depletion and keep up with global demand. With the coming severe global downturn, drilling is slowing rapidly as the price makes current production uneconomic for many companies. And new investment in exploration isn’t likely as companies and countries retrench.

No matter how severe the recession/depression ahead, the math of supply versus demand does not add up if one looks out a few years. With the current rate of depletion, we need to run faster just to stay even. And yet drilling is shutting down because firms either can’t make money at current prices, or can’t get access to credit. We are heading for shortages and record prices. No one knows how soon, but they will almost certainly get here before the world is ready for it.

Complex issues

The problem of 9.1% global oil depletion (and perhaps higher in future years) adds confusion and complexity to political issues such as pulling out of oil-producing Iraq, global warming, relations with Russia etc. There will be many tough choices ahead for the new administration.

No politician likes to acknowledge bad news such as Peak Oil, but this economic downturn, no matter how severe, will not prevent the inevitable. It’s like holding off a river of volcanic lava with a brick wall. Eventually the forces of nature will breach the wall. Peak Oil will hit much harder in the energy-dependent nations. The US, unfortunately, now must import roughly 70% of its energy needs. It’s human nature to put off bad news and sacrifice as long as possible. But if the new administration has the political courage, it should start an all-out crash program to create more domestic energy, of all types, as soon as humanly possible. Perhaps just as important, the Obama Administration needs to work closely with other major energy-consuming nations on a massive program to jointly prepare for the effects of ongoing global energy depletion (before the bullets start flying).

Follow the trends in Mexico

When the reality of Peak Oil eventually hits home (9.1% depletion next year should be a wake-up call) shortages and very high prices will likely create both economic and social disruption. We could get a preview of coming events by following the trends in Mexico. Mexico’s one great oil field, Cantarell, once the world’s second largest, is now producing 902,000 barrels per day according to data released by Pemex, the state-run oil company. That is down from 2,900,000 barrels per day in 2003. That is a devastating 69% decline in just five years. Mexico’s oil exports to the US, roughly 1.4 million barrels per day (over 11% of our imported oil) look increasingly at risk, as Mexico heads toward net-importer status. Which country will make up those 1.4 million bpd, and at what price? And what will happen to Mexico’s fragile economy, which is heavily subsidized by Pemex revenues from oil exports? Mexico now faces the double whammy of lower world oil prices and rapidly depleting reserves.

[Dont_Panic]

"Awareness" won't make any difference. The only thing that will create change is financial processes on macro level. As long as there's cheap oil, it will be burnt at a high rate. When it gets more scarce/expensive, changes will be forced to happen, maybe in an ugly way. We've already seen a glimpse of that this year.

The world is too big and complex to affect by spreading awareness. Supply/demand will always be king.

[Ayoob]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dont_Panic', '"')Awareness" won't make any difference. The only thing that will create change is financial processes on macro level. As long as there's cheap oil, it will be burnt at a high rate. When it gets more scarce/expensive, changes will be forced to happen, maybe in an ugly way. We've already seen a glimpse of that this year.

The world is too big and complex to affect by spreading awareness. Supply/demand will always be king.

[seldom_seen]

"Hey Ma, that grizzly bear looks like he's about to attack Pa!" "Yes son, it's true, but don't tell him. It's just to overwhelming with that wolverine locked on to his crotch."

[Ibon]

The whole financial crisis is fundamentally rooted in confidence. Hirsch is advocating that we don't send out any messages that will rock the boat further in order to try to once again instill confidence in the financial markets. It's a tribute to how truely desparate and fragile the situation is that he would actually advise people not to talk about peak oil.

There is a deep level of cognizant dissonance out there. Folks like Hirsch and Al Gore believe we can keep the status quo and high standard of life going if only we can redirect industry and prioritize our allocation of resources. They want to resuscitate the financial markets to create enough economic health in order to rebuild our infrastructure to wean ourselves off oil at the same time we can miraculously keep this high standard of living going. They still believe this can all be done without severe adjustments to our basic standard of living.

You cant bypass pain, chaos, financial collapse and move straight toward a re-engineered society. Once again we want to put the cart before the horse. It is only through the catalyst of these chaotic events that profound culural transformation can happen.

Why do we resist so vehemently?

[eastbay]

If you're interested, there's already a thread and discussion on this 'shut up' topic.

From 10 days ago.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '[')url=http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic48187.html]If you're interested[/url], there's already a thread and discussion on this 'shut up' topic.

From 10 days ago.

[Grifter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '"')Hey Ma, that grizzly bear looks like he's about to attack Pa!" "Yes son, it's true, but don't tell him. It's just to overwhelming with that wolverine locked on to his crotch."

[paimei01]

It's a good idea to shut up .What do you expect to accomplish ?

Everybody renouncing the current system, and adopting the system they have in Cuba, with urban gardens everywhere, no economy of perpetual growth , and so on, and all these without being forced to do so ?

That can't happen. The governments if they know about peak oil will take care of us by forcing another system that ensures nobody is left to die because he has no job, or they will take care of themselves by preserving the current system at all costs. I think they will chose the second option.

I said on another thread soon we will look at Cuba with envy.
Cuba

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', '[')i]Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. Aldous Huxley

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '
')Robert Hirsh knows all that, so perhaps you may consider listening to him.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '"')Hey Ma, that grizzly bear looks like he's about to attack Pa!" "Yes son, it's true, but don't tell him. It's just to overwhelming with that wolverine locked on to his crotch."

[Revi]

Robert Hirsch doesn't realize that people listen to him, but can't hear us for the most part.

Peak oil is the hardest thing to convey to others. They get the idea of global warming, but peak oil is a little hard to understand.

You can tell anyone you want. They won't believe you, and even if they do, nobody's going to do anything about it.

Robert Hirsch has nothing to worry about.

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'Y')ou can tell anyone you want. They won't believe you, and even if they do, nobody's going to do anything about it.

[bratticus]

In case you forgot what Internet TV is Holmes Wilson will be happy to explain it all to you: http://www.viddler.com/explore/nrkbeta/videos/5/

[FloridaGirl]

The Hirsch report says we need at least 10 years to prepare for PO. Now is not the time to pause.

There's lots of things that could be done in this environment to prepare. The government stimulus packages and tax laws could create jobs and reduce energy use by supporting alternative energy, additional mass transit, making homes and businesses more energy efficient, recycling, encourage use of trains for commercial transport, etc.

Now is a great time to add taxes on fuel and energy while the prices are relatively low. The money collected could be used to offset the stimulus packages. If they're really worried about taxing the poor with an energy tax, they could reduce the low end of income taxes.

If you don't convince your friends and family to prepare by stocking up on food, learning to grow food, reducing consumption, buying foreign made necessities (like clothes), then they'll come to you for help. I've been very outspoken and now people are beginning to seriously listen.

There is a wide range of possible futures for humanity at this point. None of them will be pleasant or easy but we can do our best to drive the population to the best possible future.

There is nowhere to run to. We must not give up. There is a limited amount of resources in the world; people can continue to use resources for frivalous things that are usless in a post-peak oil world or we can encourage people to use the remaining resources for useful things as well as reduce resource consumption now so more will be available later.