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The Robert L Hirsch Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Robert Hirsch Tells us to Shut Up

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Sat 15 Nov 2008, 11:35:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '[')url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwaBjeyEY14]Hircsh maybe should have taken his own advice earlier this year...[/url]

Peak oilers should not be predicting prices since as we see, severe economic disruptions that we know will occur destroy the price. Keep talking about the supply picture going forward. Now *is* the time to be talking about that since with energy prices low, it is the better time to restructure infrastructure for a declining energy budget than during the spike side of disruption.

Yeah, the confusion of absolute price vs. price volatility as caused by peak oil hasn't helped people understand the underlying problem any.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '&')quot;Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"

First thing to ask: Cui bono?
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Re: Robert Hirsch Tells us to Shut Up

Unread postby eastbay » Sat 15 Nov 2008, 11:43:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedStateGreen', 'P')eople already have a sense that something is wrong. They just don't have the terms to link it to.
For example, the decrease in gasoline usage in spite of falling gas prices, that isn't explained by any huge loss of jobs around here.
I don't think people are so stupid that they're going to start riots if they know the truth. It might even stimulate the economy, as people start prepping. :)

Even people who are still employed are spending less on everything. They're driving less. Doing less on all fronts. There's a general mood in the air that 'I could be next', so they're reducing debt and saving. This is a fairly sudden thinking shift, so we really don't have much evidence for it yet ... it's just a feeling I get from neighbors and friends and reading big ticket sales reports.

I'm really not sure what Hirsch is getting at by telling us to stop talking about peak oil. I just don't get it. If anything now is the time we should be talking about it more so with these temporary low prices, we don't keep on living with our old wasteful habits.

This is a perfect time to raise gas taxes, for example. It's also a perfect time to allow an antiquated ICE car maker or two to go extinct, and as Revi mentioned elsewhere, why not help the new electric car companies instead! Why not take this opportunity to move on and prepare for the fresh new life that will be here sooner or later anyhow, instead of mindlessly feeding a nearly dead beast.

No Hirsch, you're wrong. Now more than ever before is the time to talk about peak oil. We have an unexpected window of opportunity to act and move in a new direction. A post oil-age direction.
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Re: Robert Hirsch Tells us to Shut Up

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 15 Nov 2008, 11:48:17

The peak oil crisis caused the financial crisis.

Each spike in gas prices in the late 70s and 80s was followed by a deep recession. The same thing is happening now.
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Re: Robert Hirsch Tells us to Shut Up

Unread postby jamest » Sat 15 Nov 2008, 12:21:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')he peak oil crisis caused the financial crisis. Each spike in gas prices in the late 70s and 80s was followed by a deep recession. The same thing is happening now.

You are quite correct that the oil price spike caused the recession, as it did in the 70's and 80's. The real question is whether or not the price spike was caused by peak oil, or by underinvestment in energy development and a surge in consumption as a result of low oil prices in the 90's.
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Re: Robert Hirsch Tells us to Shut Up

Unread postby virgincrude » Sat 15 Nov 2008, 12:54:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'L')ook, WOman, when you have a lot of money riding on future outcomes,

fixed it for you.

Yes, I understand that the theory may have swept across the trading floors. That doesn't mean that each and every trader bought into the whole post-peak scenario, or even took Hirsch's original warnings seriously. It certainly looks to me like nobody involved in the stock markets took Hirsch seriously at all. Every time Bush or Trichet, Paulson or some other politico/bankster opens there traps, the stocks react and most often in ways nobody could predict. See what happened to trading the day after 9/11? How did the markets react to China's recent injection? poeple were shitting themselves. Not joyously buying and selling. The market has a life of its own which defies logic.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's not hard to find stock market investors who are better informed about energy markets and particular companies than anyone spouting off here on PO.com - simply because they've got significant stakes riding on the soundness of their judgements.

I agree, but are they better informed about all the repercussions of Peak Oil? It's very hard to see the trees when you're stuck in the woods.

I don't for a moment take comments on this board as the Gospel on Peak Oil. I do read other sources and try to maintain a balanced view without the screaming doomers interfering. I do think this current economic mess is worth screaming doom about, however. As you say, it will take a few more months to unwind, and then what....?
Last edited by virgincrude on Sat 15 Nov 2008, 13:02:57, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Robert Hirsch Tells us to Shut Up

Unread postby Carlhole » Sat 15 Nov 2008, 12:57:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')he peak oil crisis caused the financial crisis. Each spike in gas prices in the late 70s and 80s was followed by a deep recession. The same thing is happening now.

Not according to Hirsch and a lot of other analysts.

These are some of the main reasons for the current crisis:
(1) Artificially loose money and low interest rate policies of the Federal Reserve for the past 15 years and especially since 2000 - 2001.

(2) Loose qualifications for mortgages

(3) Washington's record deficit spending. Record debt-financed consumption in America.

(4) The phenomenally rapid rise of China and its mammoth, imbalanced financial and trading relationship with the US

(5) Patterns of poorly calculated, unrestrained, unregulated leveraging by banks and financial institutions as well as the explosion of mortgage-backed derivatives in financial markets around the world.

All of these things created a superheated global economy which was unsustainable because it relied upon monstrous levels of new debt. The hypergrowth of China spurred on by the off-loading of America's manufacturing base to that country began to strain current production limits of crude oil - but THAT was only enough to force the market up to a level of $60 - $70 per barrel. The rest of the price rise was pure bubble.

Several years ago, the market became aware that these unhealthy trends would reach a critical stage before too long and the market started selling the dollar. Hedge funds and other large investors started stashing funds in oil and other commodities at the same time because they were perceived as safe havens. Voices like Peter Schiff and Ron Paul began alerting to the eventuality of an economic crash and many market players paid attention to them. Nowhere did Peter Schiff and others like him mention anything about diminishing supplies of crude as being the primary cause of our economic problems.

Peak Oil is a different concept than Maximum Flow Rate - something which has to do with investment patterns more than geology. So, while massive flows of capital (fleeing the forecasted bursting of the real estate bubble, the weakening dollar) drove the oil and commodity markets higher, the superheated global economy hit its head on the world's present flow rate ceiling and this drove oil prices up even further - way beyond where they should have been had there been no debt-driven, global economy on steroids and no economic mis-management by the Fed and no lack of financial regulatory oversight.

So, you can say that rapidly growing demand and the limits of oil flow were responsible for some of the record price rise in 2008. But the origins of the crisis lay in the purely economic factors listed above.

If it indeed WERE the case that basic geological limits were the true cause of our economic problems, why shouldn't Hirsch want to say so loudly at the top of his lungs?

Well, he isn't screaming "Peak Oil Caused The Meltdown" because he knows it's not true.

The IEA isn't screaming "Peak Oil Caused The Meltdown" because they know how poor energy production infrastructure investment has been for the last 18 years or so. They are urging the world remedy that situation ASAP in their latest report.
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Re: Robert Hirsch Tells us to Shut Up

Unread postby Carlhole » Sat 15 Nov 2008, 14:46:06

Meltdown 101: Will the world economic summit help?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Associated Press', '[')b]Q: What are the key issues?

A: At the top of the agenda is the complex and delicate matter of how to overhaul the regulatory oversight of financial markets. The goal is to avoid the types of housing, credit and financial debacles now threatening to plunge the global economy into a deep recession. Many experts say the global crisis is a result, at least in part, of lax regulation.

"Our first priority must be recovery and repair," said U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. "Of course, we must take strong actions to fix our system so that the world does not have to suffer something like this ever again."

The summit "marks a very important step in what will be an ongoing process of recovery and reform," Paulson said.

The crisis erupted in the United States in August of last year as mortgage investments soured with the housing market's collapse, then spread to other countries. Banks and other financial companies suffered huge losses. Foreclosures soared. Troubles then seeped into other areas, crimping auto and student loans and locking up lending for consumers and businesses.

Q: Will there be a breakthrough on a regulatory overhaul?

A: Probably not.

Europeans want broad changes and tighter universal regulations. "We don't want to move from a lack of regulation to too much, but we want to change the financial ground rules," said French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

But with just two months left in office, Bush isn't prepared to go nearly as far as the Europeans want.

"Our aim should not be more government; it should be smarter government," Bush said. "The crisis was not a failure of the free-market system. And the answer is not to try to reinvent that system."

Instead, the Bush administration predicts the leaders will agree on broad principles of reform. These would be intended to guard against future financial crises, promote regulatory cooperation among countries and identify the root causes of the crises.


Not a single word about the price of crude, peak oil or petroleum supply constraints in that whole synopsis of the G-20 Economic Summit's purpose.

No doubt everyone here on PO.com will now insist that a huge international conspiracy exists to NOT mention what the economic summit is really about - Peak Oil, and who will live and who will die as civilization descends into the worst cataclysm the Earth has seen for 65 million years! Run for the hills!!
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Re: Robert Hirsch Tells us to Shut Up

Unread postby eastbay » Sat 15 Nov 2008, 14:57:24

It's the dinosaur in the room no one wants to talk about. And if you do happen to mention it, someone, like Hirsch, will tell you to shut up.
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Hirsch tells us to shut up about peak oil

Unread postby Alnitaka » Tue 25 Nov 2008, 00:47:01

I looked for the latest Deffeyes column, and it had a bulletin issued 2008 November 22. Deffeyes quotes Hirsch as saying (in part):

I suggest that the peak oil community minimize its efforts to awaken the world to the near-term dangers of world oil supply. The motivation is simple: By minimizing our efforts in the near term, we may not add fuel to the economic fires that are already burning so fiercely.

End quote.

I think the world should be allowed to know about the peak oil problem.
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Re: Hirsch tells us to shut up about peak oil

Unread postby DefiledEngine » Tue 25 Nov 2008, 01:30:57

Indeed, we must not risk that the economy stops growing, that could actually stop peak oil. Growth forever!

Here's the link ot the article: Link

Here's mr. Simmons thought on the request:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')This is a very risky time to go silent on a problem far deeper and less fixable than the financial mess,” said Simmons, author of the 2005 peakist bible “Twilight in the Desert,” which cast doubt on Saudi Arabia’s abilities to pump evermore oil. “The current price of oil is as lethal to supply as $10-a-barrel oil was a decade ago when we were all petrified about the permanence of the Asian flu that had killed any growth in oil demand.”
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Re: Hirsch tells us to shut up about peak oil

Unread postby bratticus » Tue 25 Nov 2008, 09:12:46

Dear Peakniks,
Please forget all that stuff about the First Amendment and go back to WW II "Loose Lips Sink Ships".
Sincerely,
Your Fearful Leaders
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Re: Hirsch tells us to shut up about peak oil

Unread postby cipi604 » Tue 25 Nov 2008, 09:28:16

We passed the peak. We don't have any more time to prepare. Listen to Hirsch, if you scare the people with the peak oil message you'll be the next witches to be hunted around by a starving half mad population.
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Re: Hirsch tells us to shut up about peak oil

Unread postby Blacksmith » Tue 25 Nov 2008, 09:38:20

The lesson for today is:
There is no peak oil.
Thou shalt not mention peal oil again.
Now go to your seat and stay there.
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Re: Hirsch tells us to shut up about peak oil

Unread postby bratticus » Tue 25 Nov 2008, 09:47:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cipi604', 'W')e passed the peak. We don't have any more time to prepare. Listen to Hirsch, if you scare the people with the peak oil message you'll be the next witches to be hunted around by a starving half mad population.

What if you constantly go around promoting gardening, farming, farmer's markets, local produce, etc.?
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Re: Hirsch tells us to shut up about peak oil

Unread postby bratticus » Tue 25 Nov 2008, 09:52:46

Besides, if you don't constantly talk about peak oil and local agriculture how else could you potentially become the world's first peak oil martyr which would make peak oil go into orbit around human consciousness?
The media could wreck the story but everyone who had face time with you would know.
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Re: Hirsch tells us to shut up about peak oil

Unread postby Grifter » Tue 25 Nov 2008, 09:56:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', 'B')esides, if you don't constantly talk about peak oil and local agriculture how else could you potentially become the world's first peak oil martyr which would make peak oil go into orbit around human consciousness?

You wouldn't be killed for trying to explain peak oil. You would be killed for being a doomsayer, chicken little, its all your fault.

Groups don't lynch for rational reasons but simply for an emotional outlet.
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Re: Hirsch tells us to shut up about peak oil

Unread postby bratticus » Tue 25 Nov 2008, 09:58:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Grifter', 'G')roups don't lynch for rational reasons but simply for an emotional outlet.

What group is Robert "shut up about peak oil" Hirsch part of?
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Re: Hirsch tells us to shut up about peak oil

Unread postby hope_full » Tue 25 Nov 2008, 10:05:22

I subscribe to a daily "market insight" email from The Daily Reckoning. Today's email from TDR suggests that they did not get the memo about being quiet about peak oil:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or the whole of the 20th century, we soaked up cheap oil to run our cars and heat our houses... light our porches... and power our tractors. Oil gave us plastics. And petrochemicals.

Oil shaped America. It changed us.

More than the Internet. More than the stock market bubble of the 1990s. More than the Japanese bubble of the 1980s. More than the real estate bubble that's just burst under our noses. And that's what makes us so vulnerable to the shock "E-Day" will bring...

America's Dirty Secret: "Hooked on Crude!"
Without oil, America shuts down. Farms close. Hospitals don't open. Streetlights don't burn. Trains and trucks don't run. Planes don't fly.

This isn't some fantastic doomsday scenario. It's just a simple fact.
We burn through nearly 30 billion barrels per year. Even 90% of the chemicals we use for farming, making drugs and making plastics... come from oil. It's a habit we can't quit.

Some of us commute 100 miles per day to and from work. Six billion people. Driving 700 million cars. Every day, each car uses four times more energy in fuel than people need for food. At the airport, a thousand planes a day take off and land, each carrying as much as 24,000 gallons of fuel. Passenger jets alone burn about 1,200 gallons of fuel each hour!

The phones, Internet, televisions, washers, dryers, refrigerators and stereos in our homes... the trucks, trains, planes and ships that deliver food to our supermarkets... our factories, tractors, turbines and compressors...
Hot showers and hot coffee. Fried eggs and bacon. Your daily commute to work. And your commute home to your family in the evening. Air-conditioned skyscrapers and air-conditioned theaters. Late nights reading in bed by lamplight.
Weekend car trips to the beach. Thousands of boxes of cereal on grocery store shelves, fudge-ripple ice cream in the freezers, heaping piles of fruit on the produce rack...
None would exist or arrive without oil.

On average, most food in North America travels 1,300 miles from farm to plate! How else do you get grapefruits in New England and maple syrup in New Mexico? Or salmon in Kansas or pineapples in Wisconsin?
The list goes on. Ambulances, firetrucks and police cars. Hospitals and hospital equipment. Modern dentistry. All need a steady, cheap supply of oil.

And further on in this lengthy piece:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Forget what politicians and pundits tell you. There is no "oil recovery" in the wings.
Recessions might give us a break on demand, now and then. But shrinking energy supplies always add up to rising prices. And what I'm showing you here adds up to a permanently shrinking supply.
What will this do to the stock market... to budding small businesses... to the job market... and to the prices of everyday goods? What happens with China? With India and the masses in other emerging markets?
Many, many people will get caught unaware.
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Re: Hirsch tells us to shut up about peak oil

Unread postby Grifter » Tue 25 Nov 2008, 10:11:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Grifter', 'G')roups don't lynch for rational reasons but simply for an emotional outlet.
What group is Robert "shut up about peak oil" Hirsch part of?

I think he's just advising peakers to shut up. Possibly for their own benefit.

I shut up about it ages ago but thats just me.
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Re: Hirsch tells us to shut up about peak oil

Unread postby bratticus » Tue 25 Nov 2008, 10:16:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Grifter', 'I') shut up about it ages ago but thats just me.

I am certifiable but that's just me.
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