by Carlhole » Sat 15 Nov 2008, 12:57:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')he peak oil crisis caused the financial crisis. Each spike in gas prices in the late 70s and 80s was followed by a deep recession. The same thing is happening now.
Not according to Hirsch and a lot of other analysts.
These are some of the main reasons for the current crisis:
(1) Artificially loose money and low interest rate policies of the Federal Reserve for the past 15 years and especially since 2000 - 2001.
(2) Loose qualifications for mortgages
(3) Washington's record deficit spending. Record debt-financed consumption in America.
(4) The phenomenally rapid rise of China and its mammoth, imbalanced financial and trading relationship with the US
(5) Patterns of poorly calculated, unrestrained, unregulated leveraging by banks and financial institutions as well as the explosion of mortgage-backed derivatives in financial markets around the world.
All of these things created a superheated global economy which was unsustainable because it relied upon monstrous levels of new debt. The hypergrowth of China spurred on by the off-loading of America's manufacturing base to that country began to strain current production limits of crude oil - but THAT was only enough to force the market up to a level of $60 - $70 per barrel. The rest of the price rise was pure bubble.
Several years ago, the market became aware that these unhealthy trends would reach a critical stage before too long and the market started selling the dollar. Hedge funds and other large investors started stashing funds in oil and other commodities at the same time because they were perceived as safe havens. Voices like Peter Schiff and Ron Paul began alerting to the eventuality of an economic crash and many market players paid attention to them. Nowhere did Peter Schiff and others like him mention anything about diminishing supplies of crude as being the
primary cause of our economic problems.
Peak Oil is a different concept than Maximum Flow Rate - something which has to do with investment patterns more than geology. So, while massive flows of capital (fleeing the forecasted bursting of the real estate bubble, the weakening dollar) drove the oil and commodity markets higher, the superheated global economy hit its head on the world's present
flow rate ceiling and this drove oil prices up even further - way beyond where they should have been had there been no debt-driven, global economy on steroids and no economic mis-management by the Fed and no lack of financial regulatory oversight.
So, you can say that rapidly growing demand and the limits of oil flow were responsible for
some of the record price rise in 2008. But the
origins of the crisis lay in the purely economic factors listed above.
If it indeed WERE the case that basic geological limits were the true cause of our economic problems, why shouldn't Hirsch want to say so loudly at the top of his lungs?
Well, he isn't screaming
"Peak Oil Caused The Meltdown" because he knows it's not true.
The IEA isn't screaming
"Peak Oil Caused The Meltdown" because they know how poor energy production infrastructure investment has been for the last 18 years or so. They are urging the world remedy that situation ASAP in their latest report.