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Hard Crash Soft Crash, Fast Crash Slow Crash Pt 2 (merged)

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Hard Crash Soft Crash, Fast Crash Slow Crash Pt 2 (merged)

Postby nobodypanic » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 21:18:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')EVERYONE in the U.S. SHOULD get a gun and get ready to defend themselves. Form neighbourhood watch groups within your localities. A fast crash changes everything. All of the advice about sustainable farming, etc...is inadequate for the job. You can't garden your way out of the massive crime wave that will hit after people have used up their unemployment benefits.

Has anyone else done the same recalibrating routine, I've described here? What did you think would happen, versus what is happening?


I started prepping in December 2007 when I realized PO was here. The only thing I have left to do at my place is to install a rain water collection system and build a hen house. The rest is as done as it ever will be. I'm ready, bring it on.

are you ready for a rouge national guard unit or local warlord to kick you out of your house? :-D
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Re: Fast Crash!

Postby Revi » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 21:41:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'T')he new Bond flick mentions the world is running out of oil. Peak oil is coming to main stream.


I noticed that too. And the villain was trying to corner the market on water.

Who said that the wars of the 20th century were over oil, and those of the 21st will be over water?

I am beginning to think that a fast crash is possible.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Fast Crash!

Postby Snowrunner » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 22:05:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', '.').......and yet there are many here that are still in denial.
I know people who have taken their properties off the market because the realtor has told them to re-list in the spring because prices will be back up by then.

Fools! What happens when everybody thinking the same re-lists?

They won't even get close to what they could have got now.
Too many sellers are still living in the 2007 time frame.


Every other day I hear someone in the office tell me that NOW would probably be a good time to buy while the market is down... Ummm, yeah, no not quite yet. Give it another five years or so.
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Re: Fast Crash!

Postby deMolay » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 22:49:11

The time to buy real estate again is when you see long lists of property for sale for taxes owing on a weekly basis in your local paper. This why if you can try to hold cash or equivalent, I remember a story my father told of the 1930's. Many big homes were sold for taxes owing. Torn down and the material used to build several houses, to be sold again.
"We Are All Travellers, From The Sweet Grass To The Packing House, From Birth To Death, We Wander Between The Two Eternities". An Old Cowboy.
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Re: Fast Crash!

Postby Jotapay » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 22:55:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')EVERYONE in the U.S. SHOULD get a gun and get ready to defend themselves. Form neighbourhood watch groups within your localities. A fast crash changes everything. All of the advice about sustainable farming, etc...is inadequate for the job. You can't garden your way out of the massive crime wave that will hit after people have used up their unemployment benefits.

Has anyone else done the same recalibrating routine, I've described here? What did you think would happen, versus what is happening?


I started prepping in December 2007 when I realized PO was here. The only thing I have left to do at my place is to install a rain water collection system and build a hen house. The rest is as done as it ever will be. I'm ready, bring it on.

are you ready for a rouge national guard unit or local warlord to kick you out of your house? :-D


I lived in my car and was homeless for nine months when I was in college. I lived in the San Juan mountains in Colorado before for months at a time out of a car. I have a backpack, good shoes, rain gear, tent and other necessities. I could walk out the door and never come back if I had to, sure. It would suck, because of all the preps I've done here, but yes, I've done it before many times.

You just have to know how to think on your feet and be happy with yourself in any situation. Good rain gear helps of course.
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Re: Fast Crash!

Postby Arsenal » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 23:34:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', '
')are you ready for a rouge national guard unit or local warlord to kick you out of your house? :-D


If that is the reason you have to tell yourself not to get a gun then so be it. In the meantime before the fabled warlord or rouge national guard unit kicks in your door, a firearm can help you defend a homestead.
If the American people ever allow the banks to control issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers occupied. T Jefferson
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Re: Fast Crash!

Postby frankthetank » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 23:59:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') lived in my car and was homeless for nine months when I was in college. I lived in the San Juan mountains in Colorado before for months at a time out of a car. I have a backpack, good shoes, rain gear, tent and other necessities. I could walk out the door and never come back if I had to, sure. It would suck, because of all the preps I've done here, but yes, I've done it before many times.


I'm impressed. I loved the mountains when i was out in Colorado. Did you just stay in some forest or something? I could do this, but my wife could never handle it.
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Re: Fast Crash!

Postby mos6507 » Tue 18 Nov 2008, 00:06:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snowrunner', '
')Every other day I hear someone in the office tell me that NOW would probably be a good time to buy while the market is down... Ummm, yeah, no not quite yet. Give it another five years or so.


Do you really expect the pain of peak oil not to hit in the next five years? I already feel like I'm cutting it close by waiting to buy a house until next summer. If you wait too long for a bargain the zombies are going to bust through your apartment door or you're going to starve trying to live off of a few plant pot's worth of "permaculture" in your apartment patio.
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Re: Fast Crash!

Postby Snowrunner » Tue 18 Nov 2008, 00:36:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'D')o you really expect the pain of peak oil not to hit in the next five years?


Oh I do. But most peoples heads are already spinning when they see the housing market go down, they don't even see all the other stuff following afterwards, to throw in Peak Oil in those discussions would lead to either a shouting match or being even more alienated.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') already feel like I'm cutting it close by waiting to buy a house until next summer. If you wait too long for a bargain the zombies are going to bust through your apartment door or you're going to starve trying to live off of a few plant pot's worth of "permaculture" in your apartment patio.


I don't even have a Patio, I am also "north of the border", the thing is: I do not forsee a "survivability" if it gets to that point in the lower mainland, the only way would be leave and either make it east into the Prairies (unlikely to be any better) or somehow manage to get onto the Islands and hope not to get kicked off the Island.

See my location description.
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Re: Fast Crash!

Postby Jotapay » Tue 18 Nov 2008, 08:53:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', '
')I'm impressed. I loved the mountains when i was out in Colorado. Did you just stay in some forest or something? I could do this, but my wife could never handle it.


I traveled A LOT when I was younger, before I entered the professional workforce. With all the public land in Colorado it is very easy to more or less squat on public land in a tent or car and then get odd jobs to support yourself. This was in the summer of course, winter can get down to 60 degrees Fahrenheit below zero sometimes. The geography is just majestic there. It also helps to have close friends who will help you if you're homeless. A warm living room sometimes or an odd shower really helps.
Last edited by Jotapay on Wed 19 Nov 2008, 00:57:49, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Fast Crash!

Postby evilgenius » Tue 18 Nov 2008, 19:39:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', '
')I'm impressed. I loved the mountains when i was out in Colorado. Did you just stay in some forest or something? I could do this, but my wife could never handle it.


I traveled A LOT when I was younger, before I entered the professional workforce. With all the public land in Colorado it is very easy to more or less squat on public land in a tent or car and then get odd jobs to support yourself. This was in the summer of course, winter can get down to 60 degrees Fahrenheit below there sometimes. The geography is just majestic there. It also helps to have close friends who will help you if you're homeless. A warm living room sometimes or an odd shower really helps.


Yeah, I know all about how cold it gets. I like a lot of what you said in this thread, but I would consider a gun, though I don't own one now, not because of people, but because of people's pets. You and I both know what all of those house pets can be like when they get out and run in packs. I wouldn't want to face Madmaxville in the woods without a gun for that reason alone.
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Re: Fast Crash!

Postby ki11ercane » Tue 18 Nov 2008, 22:03:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')When the work could be done by the thermodynamic energy of Oil, it was true briefly that people could live comfortably working only a fraction fo the time of their existence. In the years before Big Oil came to Rule the World, you either worked all the time, you got slaves to do the work for you, or you died. Hopefully we return to atime when people worked for themselves and their communtiy, as opposed to working to make a few people rich. Only time will tell how that one plays itself out. The days when you could not work though and depend on the thermodynamic energy of oil to do the work for you are OVER.

Reverse Engineer


When we get natural farming going and everybody becomes a gardener, few hours a day of healthy manual labour to stay fit and fed. Nature in form of photosynthesis will take care of all that is really important, few windmills to power some nice luxuries if someone wants to bother.


Too bad it takes up to an acre of food to feed a family of four. A few hours a day for an acre? You'll be up at 6 and done before supper at 5 every day. And it's not just "tending the garden." It's sowing, weeding, fence repairs, animal defence, cultivation, canning, etc. And you will not be able to feed your family exclusively on veges. Don't forget the chicken coop for chicken and eggs, cow for milk (you can't kill it or there goes the milk), piggies, and then the garden. You'll have to tend to them too, and at the same time figure out how to make some sort of money and keep everything else running.

A lot of people do not realize the toil it will take to feed yourselves "off the land" and there simply is not enough land to go around for everyone. I know that a lot of the talking heads like to say "just dig up the yard and you're ok." Too bad that is a load of crap.

If you don't have the land to live off and the ability to defend it, you'll have to figure out barter and commerce with others that can help, or a combination of both.
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Re: Fast Crash!

Postby Arsenal » Tue 18 Nov 2008, 22:21:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'N')ot because of people, but because of people's pets. You and I both know what all of those house pets can be like when they get out and run in packs. I wouldn't want to face Madmaxville in the woods without a gun for that reason alone.


People are animals too. We just have civilization. Remove food or place a bunch of people in an extreme situation and you will see them act just like that pack of angry house pets. Buy a firearm. Shoot it.. Practice all you can. Its a great hobby and it could also save your life. Can't really say that about golf. :lol:
If the American people ever allow the banks to control issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers occupied. T Jefferson
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Re: Fast Crash!

Postby Arsenal » Wed 19 Nov 2008, 00:06:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cbxer55', '
')And if your state laws allow, get a concealed weapon license and carry it with you 24/7. Crime is already on the rise, and going to get much worse. Not to mention them unruly pets.
I do not leave home without my .45 and at least two spare magazines of ammo.
Better to have it and not need it, than to need it and not have it!


CCW is also a great investment. My theory is to get as many as I can just to exercise my rights and if I have to travel through a state, I am legal. I have my UT, CT, MA, NY, and NH permits now and I am thinking of adding ME. :)
If the American people ever allow the banks to control issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers occupied. T Jefferson
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Re: Fast Crash!

Postby MrBean » Wed 19 Nov 2008, 00:12:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Arsenal', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'N')ot because of people, but because of people's pets. You and I both know what all of those house pets can be like when they get out and run in packs. I wouldn't want to face Madmaxville in the woods without a gun for that reason alone.


People are animals too. We just have civilization. Remove food or place a bunch of people in an extreme situation and you will see them act just like that pack of angry house pets. Buy a firearm. Shoot it.. Practice all you can. Its a great hobby and it could also save your life. Can't really say that about golf. :lol:


Wolves are very nice to each other, maybe it's the lack of civilization. Pet's are insanely civilized just like majority of human animals - with civilized firearms, shooting frenzy, atom bombs etc.

But why do you think Your life is or should be worth saving? That is the question that beats me, in every individualistic "survivalist"... everybody dies anyway, so shouldn't the question be "how you lived and died" instead of "how you survived"?
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Re: Fast Crash!

Postby MrBean » Wed 19 Nov 2008, 00:18:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ki11ercane', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')When the work could be done by the thermodynamic energy of Oil, it was true briefly that people could live comfortably working only a fraction fo the time of their existence. In the years before Big Oil came to Rule the World, you either worked all the time, you got slaves to do the work for you, or you died. Hopefully we return to atime when people worked for themselves and their communtiy, as opposed to working to make a few people rich. Only time will tell how that one plays itself out. The days when you could not work though and depend on the thermodynamic energy of oil to do the work for you are OVER.

Reverse Engineer


When we get natural farming going and everybody becomes a gardener, few hours a day of healthy manual labour to stay fit and fed. Nature in form of photosynthesis will take care of all that is really important, few windmills to power some nice luxuries if someone wants to bother.


Too bad it takes up to an acre of food to feed a family of four. A few hours a day for an acre? You'll be up at 6 and done before supper at 5 every day. And it's not just "tending the garden." It's sowing, weeding, fence repairs, animal defence, cultivation, canning, etc. And you will not be able to feed your family exclusively on veges. Don't forget the chicken coop for chicken and eggs, cow for milk (you can't kill it or there goes the milk), piggies, and then the garden. You'll have to tend to them too, and at the same time figure out how to make some sort of money and keep everything else running.

A lot of people do not realize the toil it will take to feed yourselves "off the land" and there simply is not enough land to go around for everyone. I know that a lot of the talking heads like to say "just dig up the yard and you're ok." Too bad that is a load of crap.

If you don't have the land to live off and the ability to defend it, you'll have to figure out barter and commerce with others that can help, or a combination of both.


I'm not denying that. But there is also very powerfull suggestion that less we try to control, less we have to worry about. And that what really needs to be done, can and will be done without effort.
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Re: Fast Crash!

Postby Arsenal » Wed 19 Nov 2008, 00:19:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '
')But why do you think Your life is or should be worth saving? That is the question that beats me, in every individualistic "survivalist"... everybody dies anyway, so shouldn't the question be "how you lived and died" instead of "how you survived"?


I have lived a pretty good life so far but that is not my motivation. When I play with my 1yr old son and see the innocence in his eyes I want to do everything in my power to make sure he survives with the skills he needs.
If the American people ever allow the banks to control issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers occupied. T Jefferson
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Re: Fast Crash!

Postby Jotapay » Wed 19 Nov 2008, 01:02:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'I') would consider a gun, though I don't own one now, not because of people, but because of people's pets.


I have one or two laying around. :)

Even as much as I like to have many tools to be prepared, the best weapon is still our mind.
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Re: Fast Crash!

Postby Arsenal » Wed 19 Nov 2008, 19:50:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cbxer55', '
')Why get so many individual licenses? In the case of my Oklahoma permit, it is honored in 33 states. Just have to be aware of which ones do not honor it and stay the f--k out of them. I know Oklahoma honors every other states license without exception, even those like Vermont that allow CCW with no license. Heck, they even honor Californias! That is frickin amazing. Who in California has a CCW license? The PTB only I imagine.


I travel around New England and the US quite a bit. If I just had my MA license then I could not carry in ANY other state around me except for VT. For me it is worth it especially when getting caught with a firearm without a license comes with a hefty penalty. I can't "stay the f--k out of them" so I might as well be legal.
If the American people ever allow the banks to control issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers occupied. T Jefferson
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Re: Fast Crash!

Postby PenultimateManStanding » Wed 19 Nov 2008, 21:32:43

Re: Fast Crash There is a literary analogy I can think of and it comes from Steven King's novel The Stand. The story tells of a bio warfare militarized flu that gets loose and kills just about everybody. It was nothing exotic like ebola, just a flu, but a flu that just kept getting worse until the victims drowned in phlegm. A flu make you sick, but usually for most people most of the time the body can fight it off and stabilize the condition. Similarly, during the Great Depression, the economy got very sick but it stabilized. 75% of workers had jobs. The country got by on a reduced standard of living and much reduced trade with the world. This time, though, the US absolutely must import many vital things. Likewise, around the world economies depend for their very survival on global trade. This isn't a financial crisis anymore, this is systemic. I can't know, of course, but I see the possibility that this won't stabilize at some low point but just keep getting worse until everybody freaks and it's curtains.
Turn those Machines back On! - Don Ameche in Trading Places
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