Peak Oil
Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Prep, don't post

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
Post a reply

Re: Prep, don't post

Unread postby outcast » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 03:27:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') say we need to memorialize Paul Ehrlich with a bust or something, maybe his picture on every page, with some decent dieoff quote, changing each time the page changes?

The famous nobel prize winning late 19th century German scientist or the mid 20th century entomologist?
Assuming you're talking about the bug guy, should we also include his little bet that he lost?
Better yet, lets actually post a couple of quotes:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')The battle to feed humanity is over. In the 1970s the world will undergo famines . . . hundreds of millions of people (including Americans) are going to starve to death." (Population Bomb 1968)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Before 1985, mankind will enter a genuine age of scarcity . . . in which the accessible supplies of many key minerals will be facing depletion." (1976)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')By 1980 the United States would see its life expectancy drop to 42 because of pesticides, and by 1999 its population would drop to 22.6 million." (1969)

Not surprisingly his predictions were completely false. So sad that so many people swallowed this whole......
User avatar
outcast
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 885
Joined: Mon 21 Apr 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Prep, don't post

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 09:47:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lowem', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'D')on't be mean, some of THOSE people are still hiding in caves, practicing home dentistry on themselves, waiting for the gold they bought in 1980 to finally be worth as much as they paid for it.
Actually if they had the good sense to sell into the $1030 high earlier they would have made something in nominal terms :)

As Tyler has so wonderfully pointed out, nominal terms aren't how you measure a gain or loss.
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Prep, don't post

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 09:49:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') say we need to memorialize Paul Ehrlich with a bust or something, maybe his picture on every page, with some decent dieoff quote, changing each time the page changes?
The famous nobel prize winning late 19th century German scientist or the mid 20th century entomologist?

The bug guy of course....now THAT is a famous guy who would fit right in around here.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'A')ssuming you're talking about the bug guy, should we also include his little bet that he lost? Better yet, lets actually post a couple of quotes:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')The battle to feed humanity is over. In the 1970s the world will undergo famines . . . hundreds of millions of people (including Americans) are going to starve to death." (Population Bomb 1968)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Before 1985, mankind will enter a genuine age of scarcity . . . in which the accessible supplies of many key minerals will be facing depletion." (1976)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')By 1980 the United States would see its life expectancy drop to 42 because of pesticides, and by 1999 its population would drop to 22.6 million." (1969)
Not surprisingly his predictions were completely false. So sad that so many people swallowed this whole......
I'm amazed they keep repeating what amounts to the exact same stuff without noticing that they've been scooped decades ago.
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Prep, don't post

Unread postby steam_cannon » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 15:25:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Before 1985, mankind will enter a genuine age of scarcity . . . in which the accessible supplies of many key minerals will be facing depletion." (1976)
Not surprisingly his predictions were completely false. So sad that so many people swallowed this whole......

So his numbers were off by a few decades, add thirty years to his estimates and look at the current problems we are facing with energy, minerals, food production and the world economy... Is there hope, sure. But the hard thing to swallow is his predictions are looking closer and closer to reality.

[smilie=new_popcornsmiley.gif]
User avatar
steam_cannon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2859
Joined: Thu 28 Dec 2006, 04:00:00
Location: MA
Top

Re: Prep, don't post

Unread postby steam_cannon » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 16:17:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'w')aiting for the gold they bought in 1980 to finally be worth as much as they paid for it.
So some people picked up on the idea of stocking food for emergencies, a little gardening, and can you imagine, saving wealth for their children to inherit. Oh how terrible! :lol:

Image
User avatar
steam_cannon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2859
Joined: Thu 28 Dec 2006, 04:00:00
Location: MA
Top

Re: Prep, don't post

Unread postby outcast » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 20:23:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Before 1985, mankind will enter a genuine age of scarcity . . . in which the accessible supplies of many key minerals will be facing depletion." (1976)
Not surprisingly his predictions were completely false. So sad that so many people swallowed this whole...

So his numbers were off by a few decades, add thirty years to his estimates and look at the current problems we are facing with energy, minerals, food production and the world economy... Is there hope, sure. But the hard thing to swallow is his predictions are looking closer and closer to reality.
[smilie=new_popcornsmiley.gif]

Our energy problems are not as serious as they were 30 years ago back when there actually was gas rationing, and mineral and food production hasn't decreased at all.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m amazed they keep repeating what amounts to the exact same stuff without noticing that they've been scooped decades ago.

The point is that was what he said would happen and he was completely wrong. As I was pointing out earlier in another thread, the Club of Rome made similar predictions about mineral and oil depletion, and they were also flat wrong. Doomer predictions have been wrong over and over again, and that is why we shouldn't completely rely on them when planning ahead.
User avatar
outcast
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 885
Joined: Mon 21 Apr 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Prep, don't post

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 20:30:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Before 1985, mankind will enter a genuine age of scarcity . . . in which the accessible supplies of many key minerals will be facing depletion." (1976)
Not surprisingly his predictions were completely false. So sad that so many people swallowed this whole..

So his numbers were off by a few decades, add thirty years to his estimates and look at the current problems we are facing with energy, minerals, food production and the world economy... Is there hope, sure. But the hard thing to swallow is his predictions are looking closer and closer to reality.
[smilie=new_popcornsmiley.gif]

So we'll just ignore how wrong Malthus was at the same time? Nostrodamus had some info on this as well I'll bet. Now our error bar is measured in centuries. There appears to be a trans cultural common human psychological need to always be waiting for the Apocalypse, which is always just around the corner.
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Prep, don't post

Unread postby steam_cannon » Thu 13 Nov 2008, 03:02:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'S')o we'll just ignore how wrong Malthus was at the same time? Nostrodamus had some info on this as well I'll bet. Now our error bar is measured in centuries. There appears to be a trans cultural common human psychological need to always be waiting for the Apocalypse, which is always just around the corner.
My apocalypse bar includes things like present economic disaster that
was considered impossible just a few years ago by most people.
So far all of my expectations are all in line with reality. Perhaps you
are trying to say things are going well by posting about much
darker predictions that didn't come true? The reality is things are not
going well.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'O')ur energy problems are not as serious as they were 30 years ago back when there actually was gas rationing
The market is a bit edgy right now and yes obviously thing are
different. This years in some areas there have been run on the
pumps. But in general we are doing a lot of things differently then
in the 70's like more rationing by price causing demand destruction,
people buying less. Also the major slow down in the economy is
further freeing up fuel for the market. It absolutely is a different situation.
Are energy problems more serious? We have much less manufacturing,
we are facing a major depression that is shaping up to be worst the
great depression. No big deal, nothing to see, please move along...

Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'm')ineral production hasn't decreased at all.
Light sweet crude has, total oil production seems to have also,
I can think of a number of metals that have peaked in production too.
You sure about all mineral production being more then ever?

Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'f')ood production hasn't decreased at all.
Buy a gallon of milk lately? Check out fertilizer prices lately?

Image

Most of these topics are covered pretty well here and on other sites
like http://www.theoildrum.com

I'm going to guess both of you are global warming deniers too.
Considering there are posters like you who don't even seem to be
keeping track of current trends in the market like oil production estimates,
I can see why some of the old posters just put up their hands and say
to hell with arguing with these numb skulls.
User avatar
steam_cannon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2859
Joined: Thu 28 Dec 2006, 04:00:00
Location: MA
Top

Re: Prep, don't post

Unread postby Roy » Thu 13 Nov 2008, 07:42:53

Shortonsense, are you one of these guys laughing at Peter Schiff in 2006???

Seriously watch this. Its good for a few laughs...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

Watch the Foxnews and CNBC experts laugh when Schiff tells it like it is... Great entertainment.

From 2006 and 2007
Roy
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 1359
Joined: Fri 18 Jun 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Getting in touch with my Inner Redneck
Top

Re: Prep, don't post

Unread postby outcast » Thu 13 Nov 2008, 08:21:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') can think of a number of metals that have peaked in production too

Such as?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ight sweet crude has, total oil production seems to have also,

Yes, this one does look like it has peaked.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he reality is things are not going well.

True, and I'm not going to deny it. But the real question is will this just blow over in a few years like all the other crisis that were supposed to lead to our doom or will the doomers finally be right?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m going to guess both of you are global warming deniers too.

No, at least I'm not.
User avatar
outcast
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 885
Joined: Mon 21 Apr 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Prep, don't post

Unread postby steam_cannon » Thu 13 Nov 2008, 10:12:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roy', 'S')hortonsense, are you one of these guys laughing at Peter Schiff in 2006???

Seriously watch this. Its good for a few laughs...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

Watch the Foxnews and CNBC experts laugh when Schiff tells it like it is... Great entertainment.

From 2006 and 2007
Great video!
Last edited by steam_cannon on Thu 13 Nov 2008, 10:27:44, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
steam_cannon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2859
Joined: Thu 28 Dec 2006, 04:00:00
Location: MA
Top

Re: Prep, don't post

Unread postby steam_cannon » Thu 13 Nov 2008, 10:23:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') can think of a number of metals that have peaked in production too

Such as?
An obvious place to start is Molybendium used for steel production
and various things. Looking deeper a big problem in metals is the
quality of most ores like for Uranium looks like the chart for light
sweet crude. Of course with Uranium the problem is it's mined for
energy and the Energy Returned on Energy Invested heads to zero
for low quality ores. There are mining issues for many rare earth
metals used in the solar panels we all love.

There are a lot of articles and threads about metal issues:
* ‘Peak metal’ problems loom, warns scientist
* Peak Copper
* "Major copper (and silver) discoveries since 1998 fall short of production"

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he reality is things are not going well.

True, and I'm not going to deny it. But the real question is will this just blow over in a few years like all the other crisis that were supposed to lead to our doom or will the doomers finally be right?
I am one of the "doomers" on this site and personally I think a lot
depends on your definition of doom. The US dropping down to a
third world status would be bad enough for me. Being out of work
and ineligible for government handouts would be doom enough for
most people. I'm glad that's not me, but looking back at events like
Katrina the lesson to be learned is the government is not good at
bailing out large groups of people. So a little self sufficiency is not a
bad thing, no matter what happens next.

Here's the kind of stuff I see us heading towards:
* The Real Great Depression (1873)
* Food Depletion Statistics
* Warmer Earth may slash farm yields

I'll stop the list there and say this, there are a lot of big problems in
the world. Some things can be solved, some things don't have good solutions.
Whatever, there's plenty of problems to go around. Loki's solution
for at least personal security is hard work. Some people feel they
are bettering themselves by posting or learning new things. Others
feel better finding ways to deny or ignore problems.

Name your poison.

Image
User avatar
steam_cannon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2859
Joined: Thu 28 Dec 2006, 04:00:00
Location: MA
Top

Re: Prep, don't post

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 13 Nov 2008, 12:37:34

I'm not sure the Planning for the Future forum is the place to debate whether or not we need to plan for the future. I think those of us who post what we're doing have already decided we need to do specific things for the various futures we envision. Those who don't feel the need to plan or take action should maybe post somewhere else on the board.

Just my big fat opinion.

:)
Ludi
 
Top

Re: Prep, don't post

Unread postby steam_cannon » Thu 13 Nov 2008, 13:43:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m going to guess both of you are global warming deniers too.

No, at least I'm not.
Alright, didn't mean to go overboard...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')hose who don't feel the need to plan or take action should maybe
post somewhere else on the board.

Just my big fat opinion.

:)
Probably right... :roll:
User avatar
steam_cannon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2859
Joined: Thu 28 Dec 2006, 04:00:00
Location: MA
Top

Re: Prep, don't post

Unread postby Pops » Thu 13 Nov 2008, 14:39:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')hose who don't feel the need to plan or take action should maybe post somewhere else on the board.

I think so too, time for a move.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac
Top

Re: Prep, don't post

Unread postby jboogy » Thu 13 Nov 2008, 18:11:39

I have to say I've never understood the "announcing that you're leaving". Why not just take your break and come back when and if you want, stay away forever if you don't? That way you don't have to skulk in the back door with your tail between your legs if you ever change your mind. Are you looking for love and attention like Jayson does with his frequent, drawn-out, tear-jerking goodbuys?

Either way I understand your sentiment, I completely changed my locale and life to prep for the coming sh*tstorm. And it is coming. I don't understand how anyone who pays attention to current events can deny we are heading for extremely serious long-term financial problems, and the bitch is that once the economy recovers, we are headed right back to PO which was merely interrupted by demand destruction caused by the mortgage mess/banking crisis.

I become more convinced every day that the world is in the midst of a fundamental change for the worse.....much, much worse.
Perhaps the population would be less swayed to socialism if we had fewer examples of socialism from our "Free Market Capitalists". -----fiddler dave
User avatar
jboogy
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1191
Joined: Mon 06 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Location: the place where smartasses dwell
Top

Re: Prep, don't post

Unread postby hermit » Fri 14 Nov 2008, 16:09:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Assuming you're talking about the bug guy, should we also include his little bet that he lost?


I recently read Erlich's book, with an existing knowlege of his lost bets.

I think Erlich fell into a trap of trying to validate his projections with predictions - A risky game, and one which he lost.

In any case, his analysis of how overpopulation impacts key environmental issues seems pretty close to the mark. There's little in his book that PO.com users havn't heard before, although he goes into the separate elements in much greater depth.
User avatar
hermit
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 237
Joined: Tue 13 May 2008, 03:00:00
Top
Previous
Post a reply

Return to Open Topic Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests



cron