by yesplease » Sat 10 Jan 2009, 00:41:29
So mos, you're using whiney posts on a message board as an indication of who canned their reservations? According to that logic the world should be in flames and the zombie hordes roving the streets because people on this forum consistently posted about TEOTWAWKI.
Do you have any actual figures for the number of dropped reservations? According to the forum there seem to be ~4,000 reservations so far, eight who have locked in and posted about it, and two who have canceled and posted about it.
According to the poll nearly 20% are going to "lock in" their Aptera. I'm not sure how well acquainted you are w/ business forecasting, but "confidence intervals" are worth their weight in gold, especially when we're talking about a completely new product. A tire kicker will probably take their $500 and walk if gas prices aren't high enough when they release, leaving Aptera holding a nearly $30k EV. Odds are someone who puts a non-refundable $500 deposit on the vehicle will purchase it when the time comes, and believe you me, sales are where Aptera is going to make it or break it, not deposits.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's all about confidence intervals. If there was no deposit, you'd get perhaps a 5% purchase rate. If there was a $1 refundable deposit, perhaps 10%. $500 refundable, perhaps 50%. But $500 nonrefundable, you'll probably get a ~85-90% purchase rate.
One has to keep in mind: in the scheme of things, our deposit money is pretty much irrelevant to Aptera's operating costs. All of the deposits combined would sustain them for probably 1-2 months or so. So talking about what they could and couldn't do with our money is kind of silly. What matters to them is not $500 per person, but $30,000 per person. *That* is relevant money to them.
In terms of "affordable" production EVs, the RAV-4 EV was only ~$30,000 w/ rebates, so maybe a few thousand more than this, and that was more or less at cost for Toyota. It may be considered to be the only "affordable" EV in the last five years, but it certainly wasn't the first.
I think the offerings from major manufacturers will be at least $10k more than an Aptera considering they're both much larger, somewhat conventional vehicles. Ultimately it comes down to who wants to pay more for a larger car they'll have to pay more to operate and who wants to pay less for a car that costs less to operate but only seats two. Another consideration is that being a motorcycle in terms of registration, they can travel in car pool lanes w/ one occupant at any time, which is worth at least a few grand judging by the premium a hybrid w/ the carpool stickers commands over one w/o.
The design is just as suitable for rough weather as any other FWD car. In fact, since it probably has more weight over the front wheels than a typical vehicle it would perform better in the snow. Not to mention it has less stuff sticking out from the bottom, so when moving through a bank of a few feet it wouldn't have nearly as much drag as a typical vehicle w/ it's poor imitation of a snow plow. Since it's body is made from composites I don't see how rust would be a problem. Have you thoroughly looked at your claims?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!