[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'H')aven't they filed an official retraction on this?

[AirlinePilot]

I believe the most important message to take away here, regardless of the decline number, is that an agency like the IEA is coming up with it and not afraid to let the cat out of the bag.

If this is indeed the case, than it worries me immensely. What is the REAL decline picture going to look like? This is very big news and should reach mainstream sources. It will be interesting to see the results of that interaction.

My predition is that it is whitewashed and minimized. The markets may not see it that way, but I cant see how it wont be very bullish to crude prices long term.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '
')Which means it's true.

[nero]

This is indeed big news, because most governments use the IEA's projections when planning. If they now are forced to use much more pessimistic numbers then the case for implementing mitigation policies NOW is much easier. Perhaps a little political activism when the numbers come out would be appropriate to light a fire under the governments asses to incorporate the new IEA numbers into their projections.

[Lanthanide]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'H')aven't they filed an official retraction on this? And isn't there already a thread on this?

Not that I mind it being discussed here. Sometimes the urge to have a discussion in just one place here limits the audience of potentially interested and informed discussants.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I') believe the most important message to take away here, regardless of the decline number, is that an agency like the IEA is coming up with it and not afraid to let the cat out of the bag.

[CrudeAwakening]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
') If this is indeed the case, than it worries me immensely. What is the REAL decline picture going to look like? This is very big news and should reach mainstream sources. It will be interesting to see the results of that interaction.

[dohboi]

Yessiree:

linky

"It" is definitely true, but it is not completely clear what the "it" is here.

There are various kinds of decline rates, and this one seem to be the one that does not take into account projected new production.

Still, it's a huge admission coming from this source. It suggests that there is some room now for real dialog between the PO community and some of these official agencies.

And even though I have understood PO fairly well for a number of years now, it still kind of scares the crap out of me to have it confirmed by these folks, just as the Hirsch Report was a sobering read a few years back, even though it did no hold much new for those familiar with the issues.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '
')Which means it's true.

[TheDude]

WSJ: Oil Supplies Will Tighten And Prices Jump, IEA Warns

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he agency on Thursday released a 15-page summary of its hefty annual study, the rest of which will come out next week. The study focuses on a detailed analysis of production rates and reserves within 800 oil fields around the world.

[TreebeardsUncle]

So, are they (the IEA) conceding that this is just not a problem of insufficient investment but a situation in which decline in production is likely to accelerate in spite of additional investment?

g

[virgincrude]

dohboi: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd even though I have understood PO fairly well for a number of years now, it still kind of scares the crap out of me to have it confirmed by these folks, just as the Hirsch Report was a sobering read a few years back, even though it did no hold much new for those familiar with the issues.

[strider3700]

quick and dirty calculations here but at a 9% decline rate by 2030 the world will have roughly 12 million barrels/day to share. even at 6% we only have 24 million bpd.

$200 is laughable.

[vaseline2008]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'I')s this just anoyther leak or is it officially official this time?

[ROCKMAN]

I hope the released report also includes a detailed explanation of their methodology. I’ve read that previous efforts utilized future consumption growth as an indication of future production rates. Essentially that oil production would be determined by demand and not actual capability. The “leak” sounds as thought they’ve switched from this ridiculous assumption. Understanding how they came up with their projection is as important as the numbers themselves.

Even if they are analyzing actual decline rates in the major fields this number should also be taken with a grain of salt. Mega fields, like Ghawar, are water-drive reservoirs. Ghawar’s current decline (truly known only by the KSA) will eventually take a sharp downward turn. Though the existing water-injection program had greatly aided in maintaining high production rates, there is a serious downside: when the water levels eventually reach the majority of the perforations in the wells the decline rate could jump to 15% to 20% in a year or two. Though a different drive mechanism this is why Cantrell is experiencing 30%+ decline rates lately. The injected N2 gas cap used to maintain high production rates has now reached the perfs in many wells. Both situations essentially amount to tipping points in each fields decline rates. Cantrell has reached it. Only the KSA has any idea when Ghawar will hit its tipping point. But it isn’t a matter of if it will…but when: 2 year…5 years…maybe next year. The same is true for all other water-drive mega field reservoirs.

[mos6507]

More articles that never mentioned the dreaded "peak oil" term unless it's to reassure the public that this ain't it. Until we get beyond the euphamisms and evasion, we're not really making any progress.

[aggie]

Strider, at 12-24mpd, I don't think price will matter much anymore. Only the elite and governments will be able to afford it. The average person will probably get rationed a certain amount per month, if they can afford it.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', 'q')uick and dirty calculations here but at a 9% decline rate by 2030 the world will have roughly 12 million barrels/day to share. even at 6% we only have 24 million bpd.

$200 is laughable.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aggie', 'S')trider, at 12-24mpd, I don't think price will matter much anymore. Only the elite and governments will be able to afford it. The average person will probably get rationed a certain amount per month, if they can afford it.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I') hope the released report also includes a detailed explanation of their methodology. I’ve read that previous efforts utilized future consumption growth as an indication of future production rates. Essentially that oil production would be determined by demand and not actual capability. The “leak” sounds as thought they’ve switched from this ridiculous assumption. Understanding how they came up with their projection is as important as the numbers themselves.