[RapaNui]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoghGoner', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RapaNui', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'H')ow likely do we think it is that unconventional will grow that much, and Saudi will increase production that much?

[dohboi]

Whatever else you think of RN's postings, you've got to admit that this one is precious--earns my nomination/vote for quote of the month:

"I suppose we'll have to wait. IEA can easily call peak, or warn in plain language of the plain danger that we plainly face. I expect that they won't, regardless of any minable shockers in the report. It's like handing a pair of strange boxers to your best friend and saying, "I found these near your house", when you also saw a naked guy run out of his bedroom right before he got home."

[tribalzendancer]

can anyone here point me to good global oil production data, preferably graphed? (with monthly numbers as recent as possible)

Richard Heinberg thinks the July 2008 peak will be looked back on as the all time peak in production.

Also does anyone know by what percent demand has fallen in the last several months?

Thanks!

[Tyler_JC]

Just to add a little kernel of truth...

Oil projects are not necessarily perfectly planned out 8 years into the future.

It is often difficult to know what the production rate of a given field will be.

Thus, it doesn't make much sense to make predictions about oil production more than a few years out if we're talking about new fields that haven't been tapped yet.

Hubbert's original prediction for US oil production was deeply flawed. He got the timing right, but his rate of production was significantly lower than the actual rate.

We might see a production decline in 2009 due to above ground factors but the multi-year trend is not automatically a permanent decline.

Any oil that OPEC takes off the market by turning off the switch is oil that can be put back on the market when they turn the switch back on.

[Voice_du_More]

Are you enjoying that bonus on your paycheck signed 'love GW'? It is all over with and everyone who knows anything about the market knows that. 5% decline YOY means we need 4 million barrels of new per year just to keep pace. But just keeping pace is not enough, just keeping pace means every credit instrument in the world is worthless, there will be no growth to produce the increase needed to pay the interest. Hyperinflation and prolonged recession or massive systemic collapse and a second great depression are the only two options. But then look we are now talking perhgaps 9%, almost 8 million barrels per year of new oil just to keep up? Come on! As soon as Europe and China finally signal that they will not cut their interest rates in half to sustain the sinking American ship for another 12 to 18 months the stock market drops another 1000. This overshoot hides from us for about 18 to 24 months the severe nature of the supply constraint, shuts in projects that could offset it and evaporates all political will to do much except get out of Iraq. Just about the time we wonder if recovery has legs we find ourselves living under a ceiling of 75 mbpd. If Europe cares about itself it hacks off the American exposure like a gangrenous limb and raises it's interest rates to protect itself. The euro becomes the new oil currency, the Chinese are left burning dollars to keep warm. America is now the abyss, out of it will come a large part of the suffering to face the world in the next 1545 days.

[GoghGoner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')Any oil that OPEC takes off the market by turning off the switch is oil that can be put back on the market when they turn the switch back on.

[Starvid]

We're all Peak Oilers now.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il prices will rebound to more than $100 a barrel as soon as the world economy recovers, and will exceed $200 by 2030, the International Energy Agency will say in its flagship report to be published next week.

"While market imbalances could temporarily cause prices to fall back, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the era of cheap oil is over," the report states.

The developed world's energy watchdog has doubled its long-term price expectation from last year's $108 a barrel for 2030 and assumes oil prices will rebound from today's $60-$70 a barrel to trade, in real terms adjusted by inflation, at an average of more than $100 a barrel from 2008 to 2015.

The IEA's World Energy Outlook has come to this conclusion largely because it believes companies will struggle to pump enough new oil to offset the steep production declines of the world's older fields.

"Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable," the report states.

In its WEO report, an executive summary of which has been obtained by the Financial Times, the IEA estimates that by 2010 oil companies will have to commit to projects producing almost as much oil as Saudi Arabia - or about 7m barrels a day - if the world is to avoid a supply crunch by the middle of the next decade.

The IEA refused to comment.

The stark assessment comes as companies cancel projects from Kazakhstan to Canada because the collapse in oil prices makes them uneconomical.

The industry will have to invest $350bn each year until 2030 to counter the steep rates of decline of existing fields and find enough extra oil to satisfy the growing demand of countries such as China, the report states.

Output from the world's oil fields is declining at a natural rate of 9 per cent, the IEA found, following the most comprehensive review of its kind. This decline rate is curtailed to 6.7 per cent when current investments to boost production are made. However, even with such investments, the decline rate worsens significantly to 8.6 per cent by 2030.

The declining rates are steeper than the industry had previously assumed. They are also slightly steeper than an earlier draft of the report because the IEA has expanded the study to 800 oil fields, adding 250 smaller fields.

[Tanada]

Is this just another leak or is it officially official this time?

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable," the report states.

[kjmclark]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'I')s this just anoyther leak or is it officially official this time?

[virgincrude]

This is not a leak, I think its the ongoing efforts of the IEA to break the news to the world and make up for its totally unreal predictions so far ....

2030 looks a long way off, we should expect $200 much, much sooner, especially as this strange phrase 'economic recovery' shall have no bearing on reality.....

[AO01]

Obama could place Hillary as secretary (love it) of energy, that will be one way to totally discredit her abilities and eliminate her in four years.

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AO01', 'O')bama could place Hillary as secretary (love it) of energy, that will be one way to totally discredit her abilities and eliminate her in four years.

[Jotapay]

That rate of decline is terribad.

[mos6507]

$200 by 2030 still seems kind of optimistic. I'm assuming that factors in the kind of demand destruction that we're already seeing moderate prices? Surely they're not saying it will be just $200 with life continuing as we know it today.

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '$')200 by 2030 still seems kind of optimistic.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('virgincrude', 'T')his is not a leak, I think its the ongoing efforts of the IEA to break the news to the world and make up for its totally unreal predictions so far ....

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', 'T')hat rate of decline is terribad.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '$')200 by 2030 still seems kind of optimistic. I'm assuming that factors in the kind of demand destruction that we're already seeing moderate prices? Surely they're not saying it will be just $200 with life continuing as we know it today.

[dohboi]

Haven't they filed an official retraction on this? And isn't there already a thread on this?

Not that I mind it being discussed here. Sometimes the urge to have a discussion in just one place here limits the audience of potentially interested and informed discussants.