[Doly]

It's always difficult to find spare parts for old cars. I wouldn't recommend it at all. If you want simplicity in your everyday vehicle, I would suggest a cheap motorbike is much better.

[tokyo_to_motueka]

i agree that there will be a big knock-on effect of unemployment in the service sector.

when things start to get really tight, less wealthy people will cut down on paid-for leisure activities and either stay at home more or go out and do things that don't cost money.

tourist travel, hotels, restaurants, amusement parks, ski resorts, golf clubs, gyms, pro sports, expensive concerts and stage shows...they'll all take a dive, i reckon.

i think it will take a long time before mass-produced fake processed food becomes more expensive than real fresh food grown locally and not sold in a packet or as an instant meal.

i think you would need $300/bbl to make small-scale organics price competitive with the poison pushers.

[lawnchair]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', 'T')hey don't care about PO, or the environment, or global warming or war, they care about their MONEY. It's as simple as that. Convince people that they will save money by doing XYZ, or that they'll get more for their buck if they do XYZ and they'll go for it. Don't tell them though, let them figure it out by providing all available data, and let them think they're cheating the system. People love thinking they're smarter than the big guys.

[khebab]

Personal transportation will be the first economic sector to be transformed because it is where most of the oil is comsumed. Already, the SUV market is feeling the heat. Unfortunately, developing low mileage motors was never a priority for American automakers so get ready to see more japanese and europeans cars on the road. I also expect a mega drilling frenzy like in the 70s-80s following the first oil shock. Higher oil prices will create a short term rush of capital toward oil companies and will help financing any low EROI oil extraction ANWAR type of project. One immediate consequence, is that we will sacrifice environment protection laws in order to exploit any potential oil field.

Americans, with an average of 20b/y/capita, will have to go through a major energy scale down. They lived in an energy bubble for decades and it is bursting right now. In particular, their transport infrastructure is not ready and is mainly focused on cars and railways is underdeveloped compare to Europe. I'm more optimistic for europeans, they travel less, use less energy per capita and they have a more developed mass transportation.

As for unemployement, the fact that energy is getting more expensive can bring back old fashion manual work and make job outsourcing less profitable for big corporations.

It is so difficult to predict a world with less oil, especially for people like myself born from the oil bubble of the 70s. I just have some memories of my grandfather, a french farmer, using his horses to cultivate his land and his vignoble. I wish I could have learned some skills form him. Now this knowledge is long gone in most of the western world and people live in a tech world artificially cut from reality. I'm a good example, I know a dozen of computer languages but I don't even know how to grow my own food!

[DomusAlbion]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tokyo_to_motueka', 'i') think you would need $300/bbl to make small-scale organics price competitive with the poison pushers.

[ish]

I think right now due to preparations we are actually kind of on a buying spree of water tanks, plants, garden materials, conservation items, etc. We also want to buy the things that we will eventually want now before prices increase due to increase oil prices. But other than that, we spend way less than we make because we are putting all of our extra money into paying off our mortgage early. But when things get tight -

Ways to cut down/ first things to go...
- Cable TV
- Cell phone
- Eating out at restaurants
- CD's, books, movies
- Bar tabs
- Dry cleaning
- Long-distance travel
- Paying other people to cut your lawn, clean your house/pool, babysit your kids, etc (this doesn't apply to me but it would to many middle class people)
- Buying new of anything (electronics, furniture, clothes, etc)
- Clever ways to make do with what I already have instead of buying a new gadget to fix the problem
- Expensive presents for others (switch to giving services instead)

Energy conservation measures
- Stop using dryer (this is in progress already)
- Decrease discretionary car trips
- Plant vines and trees to decrease need for A/C (in progress)
- Stop using hair dryer
- Get super efficient wood or pellet burner

More extreme measures
- Growing own food, herbs, fruit, eggs (planning/experimenting stage)
- Getting rid of one car (although it's paid off, this gets rid of car insurance, gas, oil changes, maintenance and parts for one of our two cars)
- Stop using dishwasher

[Pops]

Not to derail this thread too much Dolly, but I can get virtually any part for that old truck – any part to make it run that is, at any little parts store and much cheaper than a modern version. A tail light lens would be a different thing, but 30 years ago a majority of basic parts were interchangeable between popular models over many years - and there weren’t that many parts to worry about either. In fact a mechanically identical model for ‘parts’ could be had for a few hundred bucks if one had the space to keep it.

Although I am defending my old truck because I like it, the point is, reducing one’s dependence on cash income to purchase “thingsâ€

[SidneyTawl]

Another aspect to keep in mind is what type of fuel options would you like.

If you have a fuel injected car you will need either gasoline or you will have to find 200 proof ethyl acholol. Cant run 180. You can make 200 pretty easily, But it is another step, more energy and then you have to have the material to remove the last bit of water to make it 200 proof. You still would need to mix it with gas according to current regs I believe.

If you have a carburator then you can run either. Only thing you would need to do to run 180 straight out of the still is probably change or modify your intake take. You would need larger air jets to add more air. The 180 doesn't burn as hot as gas.

[RiverRat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')PS We will soon have a Peak Oil Economics Forum.

[Wildwell]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lawnchair', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', 'T')hey don't care about PO, or the environment, or global warming or war, they care about their MONEY. It's as simple as that. Convince people that they will save money by doing XYZ, or that they'll get more for their buck if they do XYZ and they'll go for it. Don't tell them though, let them figure it out by providing all available data, and let them think they're cheating the system. People love thinking they're smarter than the big guys.

[Ludi]

I have little discretionary spending I can cut out, having a very modest income. My income is also from a completely unnecessary and frivolous field, entertainment, so I can expect it to be reduced when times get tough. Health insurance is the only large expense we can cut out. We eat very cheaply as it is, rarely buy clothes (we splurged last week and bought socks and underwear - woo hoo!). I can stop using the electric clothes dryer, and we can put a timer on the water heater, which we're planning to do. I wish we could pay off our mortgage, but my husband doesn't want to put all our eggs in one basket. I think when things start to get expensive, he'll be more willing to pay it off.

[j_bumble]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '(')we splurged last week and bought socks and underwear - woo hoo!).

[FatherOfTwo]

If everyone here is more or less on board that conventional oil will peak later this decade, then I think it’s a bit premature to predict that peak oil will be the next event which causes widespread havoc in the world’s economies. IMO, there are at least two other macro events to take into consideration. Either of these could single handedly push the world economies into the toilet, pushing out peak oil a bit, and even possibly allowing the world to slide past the peak without seeing clear signs of it. To me, a pushed out peak which is obscured by other events is an entirely different ball game.

For me the macro event which is potentially more imminent is a significant US recession. A US recession could easily be brought on independent of, or in conjunction with, already high oil prices. It might take a bit to show up, but the US is so close to a recession now that it is clearly teetering on the edge of the cliff. A US recession, in general, means a world wide recession. A world wide recession means a big drop in demand for oil. Such a recession could serve as the appetizer before the coming Peak Oil entrée. In this scenario I see the US obviously being hit hardest (in terms of GDP % drop) with the rest of the world taking it on the chin. Everyone would be impacted across the board, and importantly, no rethinking of the status quo with relation to oil dependency.

Another macro event is a major oil supply disruption due to terrorist activities. But unlike a US recession, this would have the opposite effect on the price of oil. Here the effects are similar to Peak Oil, but distorted somewhat because it isn't clear it's a true geological supply problem... thus no fundamental rethinking of the status quo.

As for the situation where PeakOil kicks things off, then I think this will start by manifesting itself as micro events, leading in turn to major economic recessions. I think we can extrapolate out individual actions to see a big picture of how things might play out. People who lose their jobs and/or are over leveraged are going to have some very difficult decisions to make. While these people will suffer greatly, percentage wise, they won’t trigger the flood. It is the rest of the people who only experience an initial belt tightening who will dictate which dominoes fall first. Everyone in this group will approach things in slightly different ways. Some will end, or greatly curtail, their “luxuryâ€

[JoeW]

Where will US consumers cut expenses? I can only guess, but here goes
Short list:
1) Credit card payments
2) Entertainment
3) Dining out
4) Vacation
5) Phone/Cable/Internet
6) Insurance
7) Downsize auto/drive less
8) Move into modest home/relative's home or closer to work location
9) Groceries
10) Cheat on taxes

Explanations:
1) Their budget will first get to the point where they can no longer afford their credit cards. Only then will they go to #2.
2) Time to start renting movies instead of going to the movies. Other entertainment items will be cut as well, including video games.
3) With little spending cash and no valid credit cards, they will finally opt for the supermarket over TGI Friday's, Applebee's, Outback Steakhouse, or whatever.
4) That's it, we're canceling the annual vacation to save that $5000 for needed expenses. My Visa is no longer everywhere I want to be anyway.
5) If the budget tightens more, it's time to get rid of the cell phones, internet, pay channels, or cable entirely, in order of preference. Getting rid of the phone is a great way to stop those annoying phone calls from debt collectors anyway.
6) Car insurance and life insurance? For suckers.
7) It's finally time to downsize from SUV to smaller car, or just add a smaller car to the fleet. Who cares since you stopped paying your car insurance anyhow?
8) If the smaller car still costs too much to commute, it's time to move closer to work, even though it's in the ghetto. Downsizing the house/ moving in with a relative/renting out a room is another option.
9) Time to take a closer look at the grocery bill. DPC becomes a popular acronym at the supermarket (Dollars Per Calorie).
10) Mis-report income or deductions at tax time and hope that Uncle Sam will look the other way. It's not like it's champagne and limousines around here these days.

[nero]

I think near term people will delay their car replacement purchases. Replacing your old car with a new car is I think one of the largest discretionary purchases around. People can easily convince themselves that it isn't necessary yet. The added bonus to this sort of economizing is that you aren't continually tempted to go off your diet. In contrast restaurants won't loose too much business because they are so very convenient. Many people don't know how to efficiently cook everyday appetizing meals (myself included) so to them restaurants are a continual temptation.

The third car in the household for the teenagers should also be an easy way to economize. I don't know if the teenager's personal car hasn't already been killed off by insurance costs but teenagers are probably one of the only groups whose driving habits are really sensitive to gasoline prices.

[SidneyTawl]

Depends on the car they drive I think. They will make financial decisions based on using the same dollars each month for a vehicle. If they can unload an SUV at the dealers and pick up a better gas mileage vehicle they will do that as long as the payment dollars are about the same. They will also rationalize that they will have extra money from the better gas milage to add to their available funds. They expect down the road that the extra gas dollars will start to be a plus.

I can see a glut of horrible gas mileage used vehicles starting to pile up on dealers lots as they do trade ins for another models.

The Used car market will be something to watch as the gas prices start to hit. Those that wait to sell-off excess vehicles will find it a buyers market. I have a feeling its getting to be that way now. Why I am going to go ahead and sell my toys.

I have a 66 pontiac lemans convertible with a rebuilt 389 that I will still have an edge with. I have rebuilt this car from the ground up. Pulled it out of a cotton field 20 some years ago at least. Only the body was there, no motor, transmission, no interior, no, no no. he he. Some of you understand what this means. Truly letting go of these automobiles will be the day I know I really completely understand PO is coming and this is the smart thing to do. I still can think of tons of reasonss to keep them also even with PO. LOL some of you guys understand my "dilema".

My 93 Dodge Stealth (everthing but not a turbo) with only 73,000 miles, new tires, new brakes, will be a tougher sell for the money I want and think it truly deserves. Its gonna break my heart to sell both of these. The stealth in its Econo mode (about 2 -3 miles difference) gets around 20 on the highway and 18 in the city. Not that bad, but it takes PREMIUM> that is gonna be the kicker.

The new car manufactors will be really small in the future as they get smaller and used cars will be everywhere. If only one of them would tool up for something like the Smart Car immediatly they might have a future in making some sales and hanging around for a few years.

[FatherOfTwo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SidneyTawl', '
')I have a 66 pontiac lemans convertible with a rebuilt 389 that I will still have an edge with. I have rebuilt this car from the ground up. Pulled it out of a cotton field 20 some years ago at least. Only the body was there, no motor, transmission, no interior, no, no no. he he. Some of you understand what this means. Truly letting go of these automobiles will be the day I know I really completely understand PO is coming and this is the smart thing to do. I still can think of tons of reasonss to keep them also even with PO. LOL some of you guys understand my "dilema".

[LogicMan]

Near term I think price increases will first follow the direct fuel pathways, gas, diesel, heating oil. Much effort will be made to conserve these but the rich will continue to use a disproportionate share and really inflict pain on the less wealthy. This will be followed by WW II style rationing. The IEA stuff just won't happen up front, odd - even bans etc all favor the rich. An "A" fuel sticker, based on the average fuel usage instantly limits everyone without a real reason to have a "B" or "C" to use no more than the current average. This is how it was done way back when and it worked very well. If the average driver currently uses 15 gallons per week, that's the limit. You can't buy more. If you're efficient, you all set, if you're not you quickly find a way. This progresses to lower volumes of fuel over time.

Same thing goes for heating oil.

In terms of products and manufacturing, far more energy is spent on lights, heating, and air conditioning in plants than on running the actual machinery. These businesses are going to want to stay in business. This means keeping costs down. It's far better to scale back the facilities than to stop the machinery. Products will not rise as quickly as the fuels due to conservation like this. Sadly the massive service industry of the USA will likely decline as people adjust their purchases to center on things that give them a durable tangible product and not something like a massage that's gone the moment it's done.

Other aspects of our plight like asset bubbles and debts may throw us off the cliff but oil will be more slow. This doesn't mean that a full final correction doesn't happen, it most certainly does. I just don't think the near term, (of problems due specifically to peak oil) holds this extreme misery in store.

[MonteQuest]

So, let’s get something clear here, folks. If we institute conservation, it will cost jobs. Those lost jobs can become new jobs creating energy efficient goods and services it has been suggested. Ok, but have you used less energy? No, you have just redistributed it.
Here’s a quote from Aaron on his Jevon’s Paradox: Death by Conservation thread. http://peakoil.com/fortopic50.html


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'L')et me say this another way...

All of the crude oil extracted, all of the gas, and coal, and uranium too; Every bit of electricity generated all went to some market.

If I conserve and use less gas for example, while I am burning less gas, the money I didn't use to buy that gas is still with me. I either stuff these savings under my mattress, or I spend it on something. If I saved it, it's just future spending potential, but if I spend it now, it's on something I could not otherwise afford. All I have accomplished is transferring this capitol into a brand new, energy consuming, system. The only real conservation is for the global economy to quit growing, otherwise, it's just a really big version of the shell game.

The point of all this is that despite high energy prices, or conservation, we consume all the energy products we produce, one way or another.

[sventvkg]

I think we need to blame the Rich for knowing about this impending catastrophe for 40 years and not only doing nothing about it but conspiring to make as much money off raping the regular people for as long as possible. We could have been tooling up, inventing alternative technologies, and getting ready for Peak oil and it's ramafications all along had The powers that be, admitted it to us. I think we can safely assume big business has conspired against the common man and sold us down the river for their own gain. The rich are the first we should go after to take everything they have and ration it out to everyone else. There is no other reason why it had to come to this other then the greed of the Elite. This is what I would like to see.