[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'W')e produce more than 5 now. Yes there will be a decline of course, the point is, that there will be a very substantial amount of oil produced within the US for a very long time.

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'w')ith only 4-5 mbpd and whether, given that economy and society, those 4-5 mbpd can be maintained for the period you suggest.

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', 'D')o food and gas shortages, either intermittent or permanent, constitute just "bumpy" or "uncomfortable"? Euphemisms easily stray into cognitive dissonance.

[ROCKMAN]

I agree with your general premise R regarding the plateau. While the production model for PO does have a strong base I don’t see the below ground mechanics having the same impact as the above ground factors. This will sound a little doomerish but it’s difficult to ignore the entire history of mankind. Just a quick review of the 20th century is a good model for how even sophisticated and “advanced” societies do not respond well to serious threats on the economic well being. I think the political/military reaction to the global confrontation of PO will overwhelm whatever non-violent ramifications develop.

Hitler wasn’t given control of Germany because they hated Jews and gypsies. He took advantage of the angry sentiment generated by the global powers abuse of their victory of Germany in WWI. Not a justification from our point of view. But it was from most Hans Six-pack. And the Japanese military gained control over its country political structure in response to direct attacks on its economy (ironically enough by the western embargo of oil, for one example). I know most would argue that such momentous and violent reactions would not happen today in such an “enlightened” world. I lack such confidence.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'w')ith only 4-5 mbpd and whether, given that economy and society, those 4-5 mbpd can be maintained for the period you suggest.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I') know most would argue that such momentous and violent reactions would not happen today in such an “enlightened” world. I lack such confidence.

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 's')ocieties do not respond well to serious threats on the economic well being. I think the political/military reaction to the global confrontation of PO will overwhelm whatever non-violent ramifications develop.

[ROCKMAN]

Tony,

I guess it boils down to the fact that our individual expectations stem from one's own personal experiences. I don't have to read about the transformation of human nature under stress 60 or 70 years ago. I've seen it first hand in much more recent times. If one has never really seen rapid and extreme degradation of morality and compassion when a group is subjected to severe hardship, the transformation might shock them. We're lucky, in one sense, to not be accustomed to such turmoil here in the USA as are folks in some other parts of the world. But it also leaves us unprepared to see such possibilities in ourselves. And when the SHTF it will be easy for folks, in the middle of perhaps the worst suffering they have ever endured, to not see the psychology of the moment developing.

[ROCKMAN]

I wasn’t really challenging any of your points R. I see matters similar to you. It was just a side comment of sorts...just in a rather dark mood today.

In fact, I’m always amazed when it becomes clear that some folks forget that the USA is one of the largest crude producers in the world. If we had developed a true sense of conservation 30 or 40 years ago I suspect many of our current problems would not exist. We would still have to deal with PO eventually but perhaps it would have been from a position of power and not self pitying helplessness. We’re really in much better shape then the EU IMO. They may be more efficient in the energy consumption but it’s also becoming clear their future energy supplies will be controlled by Russia to the point where compliance with Soviet policies will no longer be optional.

And I also agree about Hitler – had he been patient and developed resources in a timely manner we might all be speaking German today. And depending upon how you interpret history, crude oil shortages were a critical factor in his failure. Rather ironic given where we may be heading at the moment.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I')t should help slow rising natural gas costs in the rest of the US. Colorado residents are going to see an end to the era of ultra cheap natural gas they got used to however.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'a')nd that 5 mbbl is more than adequate to support military expeditions towards that goal.

[kublikhan]

The data in that map is a bit old. Here is some more recent numbers. Colorado really does have cheaper gas compared to the rest of the country:

Residential Natural gas prices, Jul 2008.
Figures in dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet:

Colorado: 15.24
Ohio: 21.53
Illinois: 22.13
US: 20.19
US Natural Gas Prices

[ROCKMAN]

Tony,

"Fruitless military excursions?" Perhaps. But what if Americans felt it was a path to returning to the life of plenty (oil)? And a self justified life at that. That's the delusion of righteousness I was referring to earlier. Despite all the pissing and moaning from some folks we are still a super power when it comes to resources...at least in the short to medium run. Combine our resources with a good bit of energy fat we could cut out of society if need be and we're not really in bad shape for a short while.

[Plantagenet]

[/quote]

The very low gas prices shown for Alaska are misleading, as only the Anchorage area has access to cheap natural gas from the Cook Inlet area (and that is running out). The rest of the state has very high energy prices.

There are huge natural gas resources on the North Slope, but these will require construction of a new pipeline. Gov. Palin signed a deal last year with a pipeline company who will build the pipeline to bring gas from Alaska to the central USA, but who knows what will happen now with the economic crisis.

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'a')nd that 5 mbbl is more than adequate to support military expeditions towards that goal.

[jupiters_release]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', 'D')o food and gas shortages, either intermittent or permanent, constitute just "bumpy" or "uncomfortable"? Euphemisms easily stray into cognitive dissonance.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I') was referring to the fact that Colorado residents have been paying much less for natural gas then the rest of the country and the new pipeline should help even out prices. The natural gas prices in Ohio(where the pipeline ends) are 50% higher than in Colorado. Check it out:

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'N')ice chart. So....because we pay less than Ohio..in Colorado...where we have like real snow and cold weather and stuff, and probably use more, that is somehow an era of "ultra cheap"?

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I') consider 5 cents for 2 days of heat ultra cheap. You mentioned you closely watch your gas bill and did not notice any dip in price. Maybe the comment was from a different area then where you live in? Maybe it was only a brief dip and spot prices quickly recovered the next day, so any cheaper bill that day would be quickly overwhelmed by the other 29 days of the month. Maybe you only really crank the heater in winter and don't pay much attention to the bill in fall? I don't really know.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'G')ood luck with the COE permit K. A few years ago I watched an operator wait 1 year to get a COE permit to bury a 3" salt water line 2' down where it crossed a 46" water line buried 12 feet down. Guess they just wanted to be very sure.