[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('newman1979', 'M')exico and Norway have a declining oil production in common. How the countries deal with declining production and at some point declining revenue is very different. Norway has a SWF ( sovereign wealth fund) that exceeds $350 billion. It is second after the UAE SWF in size.
Mexico conversely uses up its oil revenue. ... Pemex.... is required to fund government spending.

[ROCKMAN]

I get your point Plant. I don't have detailed numbers but in general I think if Mexico tries to save any of its current income it would equate to X number of folks starving or X number of gov't supported companies going out of business or X amount of debt not being repaid by the Mexican gov't. Any and all such effects will only make the country more fragile.

In a way Mexican is just like the US except to the extreme: 30 years ago they should have began adjusting to PO. As to whether PEMEX is well managed or not isn't too important. Their income has been taken by the gov't essentially from its beginning. For the most part Mexico has never encouraged the development of a middle class work force. The wealthy families controlling the country will never suffer. But the vast majority of Mexican citizens will be abandoned for the most part. I doubt revolution (unlikely possibility of it being successful) would do them much good. This may sound harsh but it would be the equivalent of fighting for control of the Titanic after it hit the berg. I really do fore see a very terrible future for the Mexican people especially if the American economy continues to worsen. Even in my wildest fantasy I can't see any thing in their future but complete disaster. We sometimes joke about the roving horde of zombies. In 5 or 10 years Mexico may come close to such a horrible image.

[Plantagenet]

There was a story in the latest FORTUNE mag about a texas oil man who somehow is drilling on the Mexican side of the border. The story details his bizarre and crazy battles with the Mexican bureaucracy.

In one deal he was hired to drill for gas.....and he hit oil.

So the Mexicans told him to cement in the well. "SENOR---WE HIRED YOU TO DRILL FOR GAS, GODAMMIT!!!"

[ROCKMAN]

Plant -- That does happen from time to time but usually it's the gas that isn't producible due to lack of a pipeline. Not sure why they would walk from oil. But you gotta becareful listening to drillers...they seldom have the big picture. Even if there had been oil in the well bore not all such discoveries are commercial and would justify the completion costs. But, it was Mexico so who knows what was going on under the table.

[Spanktron9]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('newman1979', 'M')exico and Norway have a declining oil production in common. How the countries deal with declining production and at some point declining revenue is very different. Norway has a SWF ( sovereign wealth fund) that exceeds $350 billion. It is second after the UAE SWF in size.
Mexico conversely uses up its oil revenue. ... Pemex.... is required to fund government spending.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Spanktron9', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('newman1979', 'M')exico and Norway have a declining oil production in common. How the countries deal with declining production and at some point declining revenue is very different. Norway has a SWF ( sovereign wealth fund) that exceeds $350 billion. It is second after the UAE SWF in size.
Mexico conversely uses up its oil revenue. ... Pemex.... is required to fund government spending.

[Tanada]

I think Mexican polliticians meet the Chicago defnition of honest, once you hit the right price they are smart enough to stay bought.

[fluffy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Taking rough numbers (assume $100/barrel and ca. 1 mbpd for a year)....Pemex takes in at least 36 billion per year. Save 1/3 of that in a SWF for just one year and you've got 12 billion in a SWF. Squeeze out a higher percentage for savings or some more exports or higher prices or more then a year, and you can get it up to $20 billion in the SWF......spinning off 1 billion per year in earnings for Mexico. Forever.

[BigTex]

The closer to Mexico you live, the more worried you are likely to be.

Mexico is for the most part a Third World country (no offense to any members of the Mexican upper class).

[MrBean]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I') doubt revolution (unlikely possibility of it being successful) would do them much good. This may sound harsh but it would be the equivalent of fighting for control of the Titanic after it hit the berg. I really do fore see a very terrible future for the Mexican people especially if the American economy continues to worsen. Even in my wildest fantasy I can't see any thing in their future but complete disaster. We sometimes joke about the roving horde of zombies. In 5 or 10 years Mexico may come close to such a horrible image.

[vtsnowedin]

Now if they did have a forward thinking politician in Mexico when production gets down to local demand they would start to ease back on the subsidy to match supply with demand. After they get to zero subsisdy they could Tax it thereby keeping Mexico energy independant for several years. By then we may be in the tank. A much better plan then importing from the world market. Don't wait for demand destruction just prevent demand creation before it happens.
Don't need to have Mexican politicians honest. Even a crook can look ahead and see that it is hard to skim the cream from a bucket of spilt milk.

[ROCKMAN]

Mcbean,


You misread between my lines. That's exactly what I meant: I see very little of the top down approach being of much value to the vast majority. Local self rule will have to dominate. I don't know too much of the background but I've assumed a big piece of the local radical activity dealt with land ownership. The poor folks don't have anything to fight over: can't tax money they don't have...can't seize crops that don't exist in bulk. Long ago, when I moved around in the Mexican elite circles, land ownership was THE battle. I still have very vivid memories of poor Indians being dragged of land that wasn’t worth anything to anyone else but them. I don't know if you know much about the indigenous Indian population but they can make poor Mexicans look almost well off. And why did this particular elite steal their land: just because he could...the land was worthless to him.

[MrBean]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'M')cbean,


You misread between my lines. That's exactly what I meant: I see very little of the top down approach being of much value to the vast majority. Local self rule will have to dominate. I don't know too much of the background but I've assumed a big piece of the local radical activity dealt with land ownership. The poor folks don't have anything to fight over: can't tax money they don't have...can't seize crops that don't exist in bulk. Long ago, when I moved around in the Mexican elite circles, land ownership was THE battle. I still have very vivid memories of poor Indians being dragged of land that wasn’t worth anything to anyone else but them. I don't know if you know much about the indigenous Indian population but they can make poor Mexicans look almost well off. And why did this particular elite steal their land: just because he could...the land was worthless to him.

[ROCKMAN]

Thanks for that update McBean. I've spent little time In Mexico the last 20 years and, as you say, much that occurs there is not "news worthy" up north. Lately I've spent more time in w Africa. Another spot that could use some well intentioned revolutions. Even less likely there.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'T')hanks for that update McBean. I've spent little time In Mexico the last 20 years and, as you say, much that occurs there is not "news worthy" up north. Lately I've spent more time in w Africa. Another spot that could use some well intentioned revolutions. Even less likely there.

[ROCKMAN]

I should have dated myself roc. That was 30+ years ago when I was a carefree lad bouncing around the hills near Saltillo and the copper mining district down south at Conception del Oro. One of the scariest moments of my life was going down in one of those mines. Knew right then and there I didn't want to be a mining geologist. Those Indians who were dragged off their land by the Federales lived in a small valley just outside of Saltillo. We later renamed it "Happy Valley' amongst ourselves. Little did we know that our surveying efforts played a minor role in the confiscation effort.

My contacts were mostly through my university professors who had married into the local elite circle. As a poor kid from the inner city my head was easily swayed back then. But we all grow and learn to see injustice for what it is. Can't say I cared much for how they treated their women back in those "good ole days" either.

[sirrom]

any updates on mexico exports?

[newman1979]

Monthly Petroleum Statisticshttp://www.pemex.com/index.cf ... ntentID=89

Pemex has just released its August MPS. August crude production is down to 2,759 m/b/d from 2,843 m/b/d in August 07. Exports to the US increased 78,000 b/d from July 08, but were down around 70,000 b/d from August 07. Mexican imports of refined products from the US remain over 400,000 b/d.

[BrazilianPO]

PEMEX has just released new numbers for September 2008.

September report

Total production down to 3,080 mbod from 3,532 a year ago: 12.8% reduction year-on-year.

Production offshore (think Cantarel) is down to 2,169 mbod from 2,613: 17% reduction year-on-year.