[steam_cannon]

2009 would be a little ahead of schedule, but I could see that happening sooner or later...

[patience]

Somewhere else I saw the Next Gen study quoted in this article. That's why I have put great emphasis on getting off grid this year. I dunno how it fits with PO theory, but my local electric coop people tell me that the grid is in really bad shape, that we can expect power cost to double in a year or so, and that new plants are very hard to get approved. Now we can add that new plants will be harder to finance as well.

Whatever the predictions, I'll feel better when we are off the grid. I believe it is enough of a problem that we have replaced most of our appliances with lower usage / Energy Star models, spent a lot on insulating and weatherizing our home, buying manual workshop tools, a coal forge, a solar PV system, and some other things. That's where most of our free cash went this year.

[Newfie]

While I did not read the NexGen report carefully it seemed to be a rehash of the NERC report, with some pretty graphics.

The good part of the the NexGen report is that they clarified the conclusions that were in the NERC but obscured by careful language.

The bad thing about NexGen is that it was pushing a natural gas agenda.

The base NERC was pretty clear that we got here because we have not been attacking the core problem (generation and transmission) but have been throwing small NG point source generation at the problem. NERC says NG is not the solution.

NERC also noted that the engineering workforce will soon be retiring and replacements are hard to find.

[outcast]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', '[')url=http://www.dieoff.org][/url]

2009 would be a little ahead of schedule, but I could see that happening sooner or later...

[Loki]

That was a nakedly anti-environmentalist screed. I can't figure out if you're posting this as an example of clumsy propaganda or because you actually believe it.

[outcast]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'T')hat was a nakedly anti-environmentalist screed. I can't figure out if you're posting this as an example of clumsy propaganda or because you actually believe it.

[wisconsin_cur]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '
')
Care to explain that?

[outcast]

Good counterpoint. I'm still somewhat skeptical 1.) because this assumes nothing will change in 40 years and 2.) there have been so many predictions like this over the past 60 years, all of them were supposed to have come true by now and none of them did.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'T')hat was a nakedly anti-environmentalist screed. I can't figure out if you're posting this as an example of clumsy propaganda or because you actually believe it.

[Loki]

Thanks for clarifying Dude. From the article:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')The single biggest threat to system reliability," says the NextGen report, "is opposition from well-funded environmental groups that oppose and file lawsuits against virtually every new electricity project proposed."
Report authors say at least $300 billion will be needed to update the system. But as long as policymakers let themselves be bullied and bought off by environmental groups, it might as well be $300 trillion.

[outcast]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'T')hat was a nakedly anti-environmentalist screed. I can't figure out if you're posting this as an example of clumsy propaganda or because you actually believe it.

[ReverseEngineer]

How does Demand Destruction figure in to this equation?

With more foreclosure of McMansions, they will go off the demand side of the grid. No A/C, no lights to those houses. With more HUGE electricty hogs like Automotive plants being shut down, they go off the grid. As Malls shut down, you won't have to run the A/C in them either.

It seems to me that capacity we currently have will be plenty, since most of the places that use elcetricity won't be functioning, and the consumer won't have a job to pay the electric bill.

Like the rest of the commodities, eventually here they have to just GIVE it away. Like Food Stamps, you get Electricity Stamps. The Gooberment takes over the power grid and keeps it running on a Socialist/Fascist paradigm.

There won't be NEAR as many things lit up, but there is plenty of generating capacity around for what few things will be lit up. Like Gasoline, the Demand for it will drop off a cliff as people lose their jobs and businesses go out of business.

Reverse Engineer

[Newfie]

Reverse

While I think you are onto something there are other factors in the mix.

First to strengthen your idea I believe that we do have reserve capacity beyond demand destruction. For example we could save some simply by shutting off the damn lights in the office buildings and other commercial "accent" or "architectural" lighting. Put photocells on parking lot lights and the like. It would be a couple of percent. However this only address one of the NERC findings.

The genisis of the above report was largely the NERC Long Term Reliability Assessment
NERC

This report is written in bureaucratic language and it takes some work to tease out the truth. But it is there if you read carefully.

They note that we substantially got into this mess by deferring capital improvements for the past 20 years or so. We have been relying on small natural gas generating facilities to make up the load.

Below is their summary findings. Demand Destruction/Excess Capacity only address part of #1.

Finding 1: Electric capacity margins continue to decline — action needed to avoid shortage. Overall committed capacity margins improved by approximately two percent in the U.S. over the last year, but margins in some areas decreased. Several areas established forward capacity market, which will be relied upon to provide the necessary, new resources to maintain reliability.

Finding 2: Construction of new transmission is still slow and continues to face obstacles Almost 2,000 miles of transmission were added to U.S. the bulk power system in the past year representing a little over one percent increase. Two draft DOE National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors were identified.

Finding 3: Fuel supply and its delivery to electric generation are vital to maintaining reliability Organizations in Florida, California and the ISO New England – all representing areas with high dependence on natural gas fuel -- performed studies identifying specific concerns and courses of action to mitigate the risks of supply and delivery interruptions. In ISO New England, 2,300 MW of single-fuel, gas-fired capacity was converted to dual-fuel capability.

Finding 4: Aging workforce presents challenges to future reliability. Industry action is urgently needed to meet the expected 25 percent increase in demand for engineering professionals by 2015. Enhanced recruitment and outreach efforts through consortia, partnerships with local colleges, and increasing R&D support of university programs are vital for developing future
industry talent.

#1 - Demand Destruction = Good
Old deteriorating and polluting plants = BAD

#2 - Congress is finally getting on the issue = Good
Success relies upon congress = BADDDD

#3 - Natural Gas dependence = BAD

#4 - Loss of technical expertise = BAD
See also
Skills Gap Thread

[wisconsin_cur]

I understand that this nation has its own... particular facets to its experience, namely its leadership, but:

Venezuela struggles to keep the lights on

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')AN FELIX, Venezuela (Reuters) – Despite having some of the world's largest energy reserves, Venezuela is increasingly struggling to maintain basic electrical service, a growing challenge for leftist President Hugo Chavez.
The OPEC nation has suffered three nationwide blackouts this year, and chronic power shortages have sparked protests from the western Andean highlands to San Felix, a city of mostly poor industrial workers in the sweltering south.
Shoddy electrical service is now one of Venezuelans' top concerns, according to a recent poll, and may be a factor in elections next month for governors and mayors in which Chavez allies are expected to lose key posts, in part on complaints of poor services.
The problem suggests that Chavez, with his ambitious international alliances and promises to end capitalism, risks alienating supporters by failing to focus on basic issues like electricity, trash collection and law enforcement.

[bratticus]

Historically there is the well-known summer air conditioning electricity usage peak.

Not too long ago it was demonstrated that a winter electricity usage peak also was occurring.

This peak has not been as intense as the summer one.

The cause of the winter electricity usage peak is due to the fact that heat pumps cannot function below a certain temperature but rather than leave their owners frozen the switch to "emergency heat mode" which takes the form of electric resistance coils. This mode is not normally used because it requires much more electricity to run.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens since we have record cold in the news so much now.

[Leanan]

I don't think this will be a problem. Industrial use is dropping like a rock.

Announced today: Dow Chemical is going to close 20 facilities and idle 180 plants. [url=http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/texas-instruments-drastically-cuts-earnings/story.aspx?guid={B240092F-74AF-4932-AF5F-56DED80CA382}&dist=msr_3]Texas Instruments[/url] announced it will temporarily shut down many of its facilities.

It's probably going to get even worse after the holidays. There will be plenty of natural gas and heating oil this year. Whether people have jobs so they can pay for it is another question.

[dunewalker]

Here is a link to today's electrical consumption in California, about 32,500 megawatts, with an available resource of 39,000 megawatts. Compare this to California's peak daily summer consumption during record heatwaves of around 55,000 megawatts, last year.

California electrical consumption, 12/08/08

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', 'H')istorically there is the well-known summer air conditioning electricity usage peak.

Not too long ago it was demonstrated that a winter electricity usage peak also was occurring.

This peak has not been as intense as the summer one.

The cause of the winter electricity usage peak is due to the fact that heat pumps cannot function below a certain temperature but rather than leave their owners frozen the switch to "emergency heat mode" which takes the form of electric resistance coils. This mode is not normally used because it requires much more electricity to run.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens since we have record cold in the news so much now.

[bratticus]

Thanks. Sort of...

Would you rather be eaten by a lion or a tiger...

[bratticus]

This does leave me wondering what's been happening to CO[sub]2[/sub] emissions since electricity is mostly derived from fossil fuels.