Peak Oil
Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
Post a reply

This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Postby KevO » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 05:27:21

Well it is isn't it?
the rescue package meant diddly
China is beginning to slow and Oil is crashing now at $67 and falling
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Of course OPEC will cut production massively soon enough but question is to all on this board -
where do we go from here?

peak oil is obviously severly delayed but peak oil is the least of our concerns now

and Alaska has warmed up by 3 degrees ad villages are starting to move up hill. What a movie this is.
KevO
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2775
Joined: Tue 24 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: CT USA
Top

Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Postby ReverseEngineer » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 05:41:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'W')ell it is isn't it? the rescue package meant diddly China is beginning to slow and Oil is crashing now at $67 and falling
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/ Of course OPEC will cut production massively soon enough but question is to all on this board - where do we go from here?
peak oil is obviously severly delayed but peak oil is the least of our concerns now and Alaska has warmed up by 3 degrees ad villages are starting to move up hill. What a movie this is.

Its definitely seemed warmer to me, but we defnitely also are starting to see snowfall here on the Last Great Frontier. "This winter probably will be warmer, but I think it will also see a lot of moisture collected as snowfall.

So far, even down in the lowlands around Anchorage, its not flooding. I am at about 100m above sea level, I don;t think we will be washed over too soon, and really I only have to move a mile or 2 to get up 300m in altitude.

The flooding is not the problem, it is of course the movement of goods, the oil produced up here against the food produced down in the lower 48. I am looking at a consolidation of the resources of the Paicific Northwest, and I think the oil in Alaska goes to the tractors in WA and OR. All low population states. All relatively isolated by Mountains. Really BIG mountains.
User avatar
ReverseEngineer
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3352
Joined: Wed 16 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Postby RSFB » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 07:27:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'p')eak oil is obviously severly delayed but peak oil is the least of our concerns now


Peak oil is the peak of oil production. Will we ever see higher production than we've seen in the recent years? Depending on how long a recession/depression we have, the world may never produce so much oil again.

There will be a decline/lower plateau in the coming years, which might make it impossible to raise production above current levels ever again. Reserve decline still happens even at lower production levels.
User avatar
RSFB
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 309
Joined: Sun 03 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 07:39:22

Cheap oil will finish off alternative energy projects, only to go expensive later... :)
User avatar
EnergyUnlimited
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7537
Joined: Mon 15 May 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Postby dinopello » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 07:49:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RSFB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'p')eak oil is obviously severly delayed but peak oil is the least of our concerns now
Peak oil is the peak of oil production. Will we ever see higher production than we've seen in the recent years? Depending on how long a recession/depression we have, the world may never produce so much oil again.
There will be a decline/lower plateau in the coming years, which might make it impossible to raise production above current levels ever again. Reserve decline still happens even at lower production levels.

Sounds right to me. It's a big problem for planning if people think that once we get the financial mess cleared out we start another period of economic growth which includes growth in oil consumption past the previous peak level. Somehow (and I don't know how it happens) there needs to be a recognition and agreement on what the ceiling of production is so we don't keep hitting our head on it and we can plan accordingly.
User avatar
dinopello
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6088
Joined: Fri 13 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: The Urban Village
Top

Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Postby RSFB » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 08:06:05

Yes dinopello, but meanwhile in the real clueless world this event could mask the dwindling of oil reserves and get us all complacent about oil again.

Let's hope investment in renewables continues to be strong, but if the economy gets really bad will that really happen? Here's hoping.
User avatar
RSFB
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 309
Joined: Sun 03 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Postby DefiledEngine » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 10:05:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')peak oil is obviously severly delayed but peak oil is the least of our concerns now


I think what we are seeing NOW is peak oil. Markets crashing, recessions, all this was foreseen many years ago as results of peak oil.

Also, can't we just revive one of the old "It's all ending now" threads?
User avatar
DefiledEngine
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 344
Joined: Thu 19 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Postby RSFB » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 10:21:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DefiledEngine', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'p')eak oil is obviously severly delayed but peak oil is the least of our concerns now
I think what we are seeing NOW is peak oil. Markets crashing, recessions, all this was foreseen many years ago as results of peak oil. Also, can't we just revive one of the old "It's all ending now" threads?

Oil prices are part of the story but they are most definitely not the whole story. This banking screw up would have happened even if oil reserves magically and suddenly increased.
User avatar
RSFB
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 309
Joined: Sun 03 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Postby MD » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 10:25:23

Actually a severe recession will create a steeper down-slope in oil production.

Instead of cranking up alternatives we'll continue to burn sweet-cheap-light because there will be enough. Then when the rebounds occur, there won't be as much momentum available to ramp up the expensive stuff.

Simple math folks, and inevitable.

It really is all about energy!
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
User avatar
MD
COB
COB
 
Posts: 4953
Joined: Mon 02 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: On the ball
Top

Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Postby mos6507 » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 12:58:41

The price of oil is NOT directly tied to supply and demand. It's a futures market. It's what investors THINK supply and demand will be in the future. When oil was riding high, they thought oil demand would go up. Now they are betting oil demand will go down. But is oil demand crashing? I seriously doubt it's crashing enough to justify this swift and severe drop in prices. There will be an inevitable correction.
mos6507
 
Top

Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Postby threadbear » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 13:39:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'T')he price of oil is NOT directly tied to supply and demand. It's a futures market. It's what investors THINK supply and demand will be in the future. When oil was riding high, they thought oil demand would go up. Now they are betting oil demand will go down. But is oil demand crashing? I seriously doubt it's crashing enough to justify this swift and severe drop in prices. There will be an inevitable correction.


Also, Opec doesn't want prices to fall sharply. However, seeing as the Yankee buck is strengthening, there is an illusory quality to all of this. In Canadian dollars oil hasn't dropped in price as much. We are still over 80.00 per barrel, in our dollars.
User avatar
threadbear
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7577
Joined: Sat 22 Jan 2005, 04:00:00
Top

Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Postby VMarcHart » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 16:30:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 't')he rescue package meant diddly
Bah! Non sense! It paid for a 5-star spa getaway and an English hunting trip.
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
User avatar
VMarcHart
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1644
Joined: Mon 26 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Now overpopulating California
Top

Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Postby green_achers » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 16:41:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'C')heap oil will finish off alternative energy projects, only to go expensive later... :)


It's not too friendly to the "drill, baby, drill" crowd, either. :P
Last edited by green_achers on Thu 16 Oct 2008, 16:47:10, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
green_achers
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 552
Joined: Sun 14 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Mississippi Delta
Top

Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Postby ReverseEngineer » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 16:45:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 't')he rescue package meant diddly
Bah! Non sense! It paid for a 5-star spa getaway and an English hunting trip.


Which brings up an interesting question. How many Billionaires and Millionaires right now actually have a NEGATIVE net worth in the millions or billions if they had to liquidate right now and pay off all their debts? My bet is most of these supposedly outrageously rich folks are poorer than ANYBODY.

Reverse Engineer
User avatar
ReverseEngineer
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3352
Joined: Wed 16 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Postby VMarcHart » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 16:59:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'H')ow many Billionaires and Millionaires right now actually have a NEGATIVE net worth in the millions or billions if they had to liquidate right now and pay off all their debts?
I'm not one, but if I were of the sorts of Gates, Trump, Buffett, etc, I'd have so much cash to continue to meet my debt obligations, that the idea of having to liquidate would never cross my mind.
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
User avatar
VMarcHart
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1644
Joined: Mon 26 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Now overpopulating California
Top

Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Postby Maddog78 » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 17:16:09

If these lower oil prices cause Oil Cos. to reduce their E & P budgets it will just make the problem worse when things turn around.
It hasn't caused any slowdown to the Tar Sands projects that I have heard yet but that may change too.

As to the weather, it has been colder than normal around here. (BC)
We have had a few nights down to 1C and this is pretty early in the year to get that cold for us.
All that nat. gas in storage may burn up quicker than expected if it is a cold one.
User avatar
Maddog78
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1626
Joined: Mon 14 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Postby AirlinePilot » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 18:43:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'A')ctually a severe recession will create a steeper down-slope in oil production.

Instead of cranking up alternatives we'll continue to burn sweet-cheap-light because there will be enough. Then when the rebounds occur, there won't be as much momentum available to ramp up the expensive stuff.

Simple math folks, and inevitable.

It really is all about energy!


BINGO! JUST FREAKIN....BINGO!!!!

This is the hardest part to bring up to folks who can only see the price and nothing else. There is no understanding of what is going down with the global financial situation and how it is grossly over affecting oil price.

Any real shot there was at growing production is pretty much now toast and the signals required to even begin a shift are gone. Down the road we go and off the plateau.

This whole mess will almost surely result in higher highs just around the corner once we figure out how to deal with the outcome.
User avatar
AirlinePilot
Moderator
Moderator
 
Posts: 4378
Joined: Tue 05 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: South of Atlanta
Top

Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Postby kpeavey » Fri 17 Oct 2008, 00:11:34

the return if cheap oil, after a year of unheard of price increases, means the return of expensive alternative energy.

At $150/barrel, wind and solar are much more attractive than when oil is at $75/barrel. As long as oil is cheap, renewables will be pushed to the back burner. When production decline catches up with demand destroyed by recession, we will be worse off than if oil had stayed at 150.

The only good thing cheap oil does is help the people that are aware of the problem to prepare. For everyone else, the drug is back on the market, get your fix while you can.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--for ever."
-George Orwell, 1984
_____

twenty centuries of stony sleep were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle, and what rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
-George Yeats
User avatar
kpeavey
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 1670
Joined: Mon 04 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Postby smallpoxgirl » Fri 17 Oct 2008, 00:19:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kpeavey', 'A')t $150/barrel, wind and solar are much more attractive than when oil is at $75/barrel. As long as oil is cheap, renewables will be pushed to the back burner.


Right. The problem is that our economy can't sustain $150/barrel oil. So in the end it's what we've always said. Alternative energy, for the most part, isn't economically viable.
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
User avatar
smallpoxgirl
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7258
Joined: Mon 08 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Top

Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Postby TreebeardsUncle » Fri 17 Oct 2008, 01:46:48

Last Friday and this morning were great times to buy into oil stocks.

Have been taking advantage of it today.

Expect all these inflationary moves to lead to a big run up in commodities in price starting next spring.

True, it sets back competition from alt fuels.

The economy will be dealing with oil over $150/barrel within 2 summers after next.
g
TreebeardsUncle
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 683
Joined: Thu 15 Jun 2006, 03:00:00
Top
Next
Post a reply

Return to Open Topic Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest



cron