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This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

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This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Unread postby KevO » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 05:27:21

Well it is isn't it?
the rescue package meant diddly
China is beginning to slow and Oil is crashing now at $67 and falling
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Of course OPEC will cut production massively soon enough but question is to all on this board -
where do we go from here?

peak oil is obviously severly delayed but peak oil is the least of our concerns now

and Alaska has warmed up by 3 degrees ad villages are starting to move up hill. What a movie this is.
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Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 05:41:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'W')ell it is isn't it? the rescue package meant diddly China is beginning to slow and Oil is crashing now at $67 and falling
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/ Of course OPEC will cut production massively soon enough but question is to all on this board - where do we go from here?
peak oil is obviously severly delayed but peak oil is the least of our concerns now and Alaska has warmed up by 3 degrees ad villages are starting to move up hill. What a movie this is.

Its definitely seemed warmer to me, but we defnitely also are starting to see snowfall here on the Last Great Frontier. "This winter probably will be warmer, but I think it will also see a lot of moisture collected as snowfall.

So far, even down in the lowlands around Anchorage, its not flooding. I am at about 100m above sea level, I don;t think we will be washed over too soon, and really I only have to move a mile or 2 to get up 300m in altitude.

The flooding is not the problem, it is of course the movement of goods, the oil produced up here against the food produced down in the lower 48. I am looking at a consolidation of the resources of the Paicific Northwest, and I think the oil in Alaska goes to the tractors in WA and OR. All low population states. All relatively isolated by Mountains. Really BIG mountains.
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Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Unread postby RSFB » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 07:27:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'p')eak oil is obviously severly delayed but peak oil is the least of our concerns now


Peak oil is the peak of oil production. Will we ever see higher production than we've seen in the recent years? Depending on how long a recession/depression we have, the world may never produce so much oil again.

There will be a decline/lower plateau in the coming years, which might make it impossible to raise production above current levels ever again. Reserve decline still happens even at lower production levels.
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Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 07:39:22

Cheap oil will finish off alternative energy projects, only to go expensive later... :)
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Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Unread postby dinopello » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 07:49:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RSFB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'p')eak oil is obviously severly delayed but peak oil is the least of our concerns now
Peak oil is the peak of oil production. Will we ever see higher production than we've seen in the recent years? Depending on how long a recession/depression we have, the world may never produce so much oil again.
There will be a decline/lower plateau in the coming years, which might make it impossible to raise production above current levels ever again. Reserve decline still happens even at lower production levels.

Sounds right to me. It's a big problem for planning if people think that once we get the financial mess cleared out we start another period of economic growth which includes growth in oil consumption past the previous peak level. Somehow (and I don't know how it happens) there needs to be a recognition and agreement on what the ceiling of production is so we don't keep hitting our head on it and we can plan accordingly.
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Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Unread postby RSFB » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 08:06:05

Yes dinopello, but meanwhile in the real clueless world this event could mask the dwindling of oil reserves and get us all complacent about oil again.

Let's hope investment in renewables continues to be strong, but if the economy gets really bad will that really happen? Here's hoping.
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Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Unread postby DefiledEngine » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 10:05:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')peak oil is obviously severly delayed but peak oil is the least of our concerns now


I think what we are seeing NOW is peak oil. Markets crashing, recessions, all this was foreseen many years ago as results of peak oil.

Also, can't we just revive one of the old "It's all ending now" threads?
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Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Unread postby RSFB » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 10:21:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DefiledEngine', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'p')eak oil is obviously severly delayed but peak oil is the least of our concerns now
I think what we are seeing NOW is peak oil. Markets crashing, recessions, all this was foreseen many years ago as results of peak oil. Also, can't we just revive one of the old "It's all ending now" threads?

Oil prices are part of the story but they are most definitely not the whole story. This banking screw up would have happened even if oil reserves magically and suddenly increased.
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Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Unread postby MD » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 10:25:23

Actually a severe recession will create a steeper down-slope in oil production.

Instead of cranking up alternatives we'll continue to burn sweet-cheap-light because there will be enough. Then when the rebounds occur, there won't be as much momentum available to ramp up the expensive stuff.

Simple math folks, and inevitable.

It really is all about energy!
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 12:58:41

The price of oil is NOT directly tied to supply and demand. It's a futures market. It's what investors THINK supply and demand will be in the future. When oil was riding high, they thought oil demand would go up. Now they are betting oil demand will go down. But is oil demand crashing? I seriously doubt it's crashing enough to justify this swift and severe drop in prices. There will be an inevitable correction.
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Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 13:39:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'T')he price of oil is NOT directly tied to supply and demand. It's a futures market. It's what investors THINK supply and demand will be in the future. When oil was riding high, they thought oil demand would go up. Now they are betting oil demand will go down. But is oil demand crashing? I seriously doubt it's crashing enough to justify this swift and severe drop in prices. There will be an inevitable correction.


Also, Opec doesn't want prices to fall sharply. However, seeing as the Yankee buck is strengthening, there is an illusory quality to all of this. In Canadian dollars oil hasn't dropped in price as much. We are still over 80.00 per barrel, in our dollars.
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Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Unread postby VMarcHart » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 16:30:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 't')he rescue package meant diddly
Bah! Non sense! It paid for a 5-star spa getaway and an English hunting trip.
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Unread postby green_achers » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 16:41:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'C')heap oil will finish off alternative energy projects, only to go expensive later... :)


It's not too friendly to the "drill, baby, drill" crowd, either. :P
Last edited by green_achers on Thu 16 Oct 2008, 16:47:10, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 16:45:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 't')he rescue package meant diddly
Bah! Non sense! It paid for a 5-star spa getaway and an English hunting trip.


Which brings up an interesting question. How many Billionaires and Millionaires right now actually have a NEGATIVE net worth in the millions or billions if they had to liquidate right now and pay off all their debts? My bet is most of these supposedly outrageously rich folks are poorer than ANYBODY.

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Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Unread postby VMarcHart » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 16:59:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'H')ow many Billionaires and Millionaires right now actually have a NEGATIVE net worth in the millions or billions if they had to liquidate right now and pay off all their debts?
I'm not one, but if I were of the sorts of Gates, Trump, Buffett, etc, I'd have so much cash to continue to meet my debt obligations, that the idea of having to liquidate would never cross my mind.
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Unread postby Maddog78 » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 17:16:09

If these lower oil prices cause Oil Cos. to reduce their E & P budgets it will just make the problem worse when things turn around.
It hasn't caused any slowdown to the Tar Sands projects that I have heard yet but that may change too.

As to the weather, it has been colder than normal around here. (BC)
We have had a few nights down to 1C and this is pretty early in the year to get that cold for us.
All that nat. gas in storage may burn up quicker than expected if it is a cold one.
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Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 18:43:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'A')ctually a severe recession will create a steeper down-slope in oil production.

Instead of cranking up alternatives we'll continue to burn sweet-cheap-light because there will be enough. Then when the rebounds occur, there won't be as much momentum available to ramp up the expensive stuff.

Simple math folks, and inevitable.

It really is all about energy!


BINGO! JUST FREAKIN....BINGO!!!!

This is the hardest part to bring up to folks who can only see the price and nothing else. There is no understanding of what is going down with the global financial situation and how it is grossly over affecting oil price.

Any real shot there was at growing production is pretty much now toast and the signals required to even begin a shift are gone. Down the road we go and off the plateau.

This whole mess will almost surely result in higher highs just around the corner once we figure out how to deal with the outcome.
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Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Unread postby kpeavey » Fri 17 Oct 2008, 00:11:34

the return if cheap oil, after a year of unheard of price increases, means the return of expensive alternative energy.

At $150/barrel, wind and solar are much more attractive than when oil is at $75/barrel. As long as oil is cheap, renewables will be pushed to the back burner. When production decline catches up with demand destroyed by recession, we will be worse off than if oil had stayed at 150.

The only good thing cheap oil does is help the people that are aware of the problem to prepare. For everyone else, the drug is back on the market, get your fix while you can.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--for ever."
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Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Fri 17 Oct 2008, 00:19:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kpeavey', 'A')t $150/barrel, wind and solar are much more attractive than when oil is at $75/barrel. As long as oil is cheap, renewables will be pushed to the back burner.


Right. The problem is that our economy can't sustain $150/barrel oil. So in the end it's what we've always said. Alternative energy, for the most part, isn't economically viable.
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Re: This is it. It's all over. Thanks for all the fish

Unread postby TreebeardsUncle » Fri 17 Oct 2008, 01:46:48

Last Friday and this morning were great times to buy into oil stocks.

Have been taking advantage of it today.

Expect all these inflationary moves to lead to a big run up in commodities in price starting next spring.

True, it sets back competition from alt fuels.

The economy will be dealing with oil over $150/barrel within 2 summers after next.
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