[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')roll, do you see an IPO coming out for "efficiency" as a tradeable commodity? A commodity with a controllable production rate?

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')I still cannot fathom how you can say the red and blue lines mirror each other when they only mirror each other for 10 out of 50 years.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') You are definitely suffering from observer bias.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'Y')eah, I was there. I observed it. I am 57 years old. I read Limits to Growth in 1972 and have been following energy and resource use since that time.
I didn't, and no one I know, saw any cheap gas that caused us to drive more. We drove more because we could go farther on a gallon of gas.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')So you are saying your personal observations trump the facts?

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')e are just going to have to agree to disagree.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'N')ot entirely. This first part of my "plan", really just an observation, is that older vehicles that get decent mileage appreciate in price as demand for 'em increase. Manufacturers also offer vehicles that can get substantially more than the ~17mpg average, and compared to the ~10% energy penalty when building a new vehicle, reducing fuel consumption by ~30-80% is worthwhile in terms of energy consumption.

[TonyPrep]

Wow a reply after nearly three months!

Sorry, when you said "Manufacturers also offer vehicles that can get substantially more than the ~17mpg average", I concentrated on new cars and, therefore, suggested that it would inflate the new car market but, with people having to hold on to their less efficient vehicles (because no one will buy them), the used car market would decrease.

This is why vehicle efficiency improvements will likely take a lot longer than the optimists suppose. People usually have to sell their less efficient car in order to afford the more efficient model. So the overall efficiency improvement is not what that one person got. Maybe the buyer of the less efficient vehicle is replacing an even more inefficient vehicle, but maybe not; if the price on the inefficient vehicle is low enough, someone will buy it, even if it is less efficient than their own current vehicle. After all, it will be a bargain.

Actually, we're now seeing a change in driving habits, at least in Auckland city itself. More people are finding other means of traveling in to the city and car parks are having to discount their prices to try and encourage more drivers! That's quite a change, but it's only happened since the economy took a dive, even as fuel prices have also taken a dive. So this may well be a temporary phenomenon, though I hope not. I haven't seen any changes outside of Auckland city, though, either in car numbers or driving habits.

With the economy contracting and inflation still strong, I'm sure that less people will be changing vehicles (car sales are down), though with less miles driven (less commuting, with less jobs, and fewer vacations), that might not be a problem.

[yesplease]

Yeah, it's one of those posts that I mean to respond to, but totally forgot about. Happened to see it when I was searching for something yesterday.

Anyway, Like I said before, I don't understand why you are focusing on new cars when I'm not talking about them. The turnover rate is only a few percent per year, and the increase in fleet mileage is only a few percent per year, so that's definitely not where the 5% drop we've seen is coming from. That said, there are more cars than drivers in the U.S. and likely way more cars than working adults including those who are unemployed (but not those who are too young to drive or retired). Given a fleet mileage of ~17mpg, and historical sales rates, roughly half of those vehicles are trucks/SUVs and average less than 17mpg, while the other half are cars and average over 17mpg. The drop in terms of what I'm talking about comes when people, since there are more cars than drivers, and way more cars than employed individuals, start driving the more efficient half of the fleet. Of course people also use public transportation more, can bike, etc...

Anyway, the idea that we can't improve average fuel efficiency is fallacious, since we already have a glut of vehicles as well as drivers with disproportionate commutes. So, as illustrated by the increase in econobox prices, sometimes by a thousand percent, the people who have historically used the most gas are the ones who tend to cut back the most since they drive the most, and they are the ones driving up the prices of used fuel efficient vehicles. They don't have to sell their current vehicle because the difference in cost between something at 17mpg and something at 30-50mpg is high enough to pay off the purchase price in a year or two, sometimes less. Essentially, the reduction comes from using what we already have differently. We don't need to all go out and buy a more fuel efficient new car, although given preferences new cars are finally getting more efficient.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I') don't understand why you are focusing on new cars when I'm not talking about them.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I') don't understand why you are focusing on new cars when I'm not talking about them.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'B')efore that I stated ...

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'B')efore that I stated ...

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'D')o you have a link?

[yesplease]

Bookmarked it! It looks lik OPEC's 500kbpd cut, and the potential cut in November could help to widen that gap, or at least keep it closer if demand destruction is as widespread as people in the futures market seem to think.

[captain_planet]

Hello there peak oil forum, I haven't posted on this forum for awhile probably 2 years now I think. When I was younger there was a cartoon on that was called "Captain Planet" and that was about ordinary "kids" that was helping the planet. At the end of the show captain planet will say "the power is yours". I am 28 years old now and I still believe the power(to save the earth) lies in each person.

I use to bicycle to work(when I can) to save my money,health, and environment. Bicycling can get tiring so I bought a scooter recently in July 2008. I have been trying to ride it whenever I can to do errands or to go to work. I get about 80-90mpg on the scooter now vs. 20mpg (city driving) so I just increased my fuel efficiency 4 times. If everyone in America rides a scooter then we will use a lot less fuel, but not everyone is going to ride a scooter. There will be a lot of scooter riders if gasoline was $10 a gallon. The price of oil in the summer of 2008 was high, forcing people to adapt to changes. Conservation is more powerful then any alternative energy projects.

The evolution of America will change just like how America was mainly a farming country now hardly anyone farms anymore. America has become a service economy now maybe our economy will be a "green" economy in the future. The greatest resource on Earth are humans not oil, maybe we can even plug people into the "Matrix" lol

Farming/Manufacture/Service/?
The old is new and the new is old.