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Energy and the Mother of Invention

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby yesplease » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 19:23:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ') Here. Gasoline prices were cut nearly in half during the 1980s.


Cut in half ? :roll:
Nope.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'c')ut nearly in half


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'Y')ou cherry pick a high and low and claim cut in half?
I didn't cherry pick anything, you did. Kublikhan's statement was referring to 1986-2000 as a period of cheap gas, which it was. You went on to ignore this price drop and posted information from periods kublikhan wasn't referring to, cherry picked information apparently.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')I would say the entire period from 1986-2000 is the period of cheap gas you are looking for. Also the era before 1973. What a coincidence, those also happen to be the eras of rising MPV.


1970 $.35/gal
1980 $1.22/gal
1981 $1.35/gal peak
1990 $1.09/gal
1991 $1.15/gal
2000 $$1.66/gal

Cheap gas? Where?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'D')uring the 1980's gas prices doubled from the 1970's where MPV, MPG, GPV were in concert.
We are looking at the higher gasoline prices prior to the drop in the 80s, what kublikhan was talking about, not your cherry picked data Monte. What about that is so hard to understand? :-D
Last edited by yesplease on Sat 12 Jul 2008, 19:50:48, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 19:40:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')After all of your Economics 101 lectures, you seriously have to ask why you need to adjust for inflation? :(
Here is it in a nutshell: $.20 in 1970 was worth a lot more than $.20 in 2005.


In 1970 they didn't know that.

My EIA data source adjusted for inflation.

1970 -$1.77/gal
1974 2.05
1980 2.91
1981 2.92
1982 2.51
1983 2.33
1984 2.18
1985 2.09
1986- $1.56/gal

Again, where is this cheap gas that caused the MPV spike in 1981??

Average Annual Gasoline Pump Price, 1919-2004 Year Retail Gasoline Price
(current dollars/gallon) Retail Gasoline Price
(constant 2005 dollars/gallon) 1919 0.25 2.84 1920 0.30 2.87 1921 0.26 2.83 1922 0.25 2.90 1923 0.22 2.48 1924 0.21 2.36 1925 0.22 2.44 1926 0.23 2.54 1927 0.21 2.34 1928 0.21 2.35 1929 0.21 2.41 1930 0.20 2.30 1931 0.17 2.15 1932 0.18 2.53 1933 0.18 2.65 1934 0.19 2.71 1935 0.19 2.64 1936 0.19 2.70 1937 0.20 2.68 1938 0.20 2.67 1939 0.19 2.60 1940 0.18 2.53 1941 0.19 2.52 1942 0.20 2.42 1943 0.21 2.29 1944 0.21 2.25 1945 0.21 2.19 1946 0.21 2.05 1947 0.23 1.99 1948 0.26 2.07 1949 0.27 2.16 1950 0.27 2.14 1951 0.27 2.01 1952 0.28 2.00 1953 0.29 2.07 1954 0.29 2.08 1955 0.29 2.09 1956 0.30 2.12 1957 0.31 2.12 1958 0.30 2.02 1959 0.31 2.03 1960 0.31 2.03 1961 0.31 1.98 1962 0.31 1.95 1963 0.30 1.91 1964 0.30 1.89 1965 0.31 1.90 1966 0.32 1.91 1967 0.33 1.91 1968 0.34 1.87 1969 0.35 1.83 1970 0.36 1.77 1971 0.36 1.73 1972 0.36 1.86 1973 0.39 1.68 1974 0.52 2.05 1975 0.57 2.05 1976 0.59 2.01 1977 0.62 1.97 1978 0.63 1.86 1979 0.86 2.28 1980 1.25 2.91 1981 1.38 2.92 1982 1.26 2.51 1983 1.20 2.33 1984 1.18 2.18 1985 1.17 2.09 1986 0.89 1.56 1987 0.91 1.54 1988 0.91 1.48 1989 0.98 1.53 1990 1.13 1.66 1991 1.10 1.56 1992 1.09 1.49 1993 1.07 1.43 1994 1.07 1.40 1995 1.11 1.40 1996 1.20 1.47 1997 1.20 1.44 1998 1.03 1.22 1999 1.14 1.31 2000 1.49 1.66 2001 1.43 1.55 2002 1.34 1.44 2003 1.56 1.63 2004 1.85 1.89

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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 19:54:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ') I didn't cherry pick anything, you did. Kublikhan's stated was referring to 1986-2000 as a period of cheap gas, which it was. You went on to ignore this price drop and posted information from periods kublikhan wasn't referring to, cherry picked information apparently.


My bad. I missed the years stated. Yes, that was a period of declining gas prices, but not cheap prices in relation to the 1970's. And while lower gas prices may have had an effect on MPV in that period, it sure didn't play a part 81-85 where prices tripled over the 1970's.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e are looking at the higher gasoline prices prior to the drop in the 80s, what kublikhan was talking about, not your cherry picked data Monte. What about that is so hard to understand? :-D


There was only two years of higher prices 80-81

They didn't drop back to 1979 levels until 1986, from 1981 to 85 they were higher than the 70's.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 21:19:24

If you ask me, MPV and the inverse of gasoline prices look closer than MPV and MPG. Its not perfect, but it fits better IMHO:
Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')If you are disregarding MPG as a measure of efficiency gains, what metric are you using to measure the efficiency gain?

He is not disregarding it. With bigger cars and bigger engines, the MPG dropped even with efficiency gains.
Again, then what metric should we use to measure efficiency gains if not MPG? You can't just stick a bigger engine in a bigger car and call that an efficiency gain.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 21:25:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I')f you ask me, MPV and the inverse of gasoline prices look closer than MPV and MPG. Its not perfect, but it fits better IMHO:


Still looking for that "cheap" gas, dude.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou can't just stick a bigger engine in a bigger car and call that an efficiency gain.


Say what? No one is.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 22:28:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')till looking for that "cheap" gas, dude.
Look at the graph I posted. When pink dips, light blue dips. When pink rises, light blue rises. Looks like a pretty strong correlation to me.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 13 Jul 2008, 00:58:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')till looking for that "cheap" gas, dude.
Look at the graph I posted. When pink dips, light blue dips. When pink rises, light blue rises. Looks like a pretty strong correlation to me.


Dude, I posted the entire history of gasoline prices from 1919 to 2004.

There is no cheap gas during the MPV spike to support your position.

It does not exist.

Give it up.

Average Annual Gasoline Pump Price, 1919-2004 Year Retail Gasoline Price
(current dollars/gallon) Retail Gasoline Price
(constant 2005 dollars/gallon) 1919 0.25 2.84 1920 0.30 2.87 1921 0.26 2.83 1922 0.25 2.90 1923 0.22 2.48 1924 0.21 2.36 1925 0.22 2.44 1926 0.23 2.54 1927 0.21 2.34 1928 0.21 2.35 1929 0.21 2.41 1930 0.20 2.30 1931 0.17 2.15 1932 0.18 2.53 1933 0.18 2.65 1934 0.19 2.71 1935 0.19 2.64 1936 0.19 2.70 1937 0.20 2.68 1938 0.20 2.67 1939 0.19 2.60 1940 0.18 2.53 1941 0.19 2.52 1942 0.20 2.42 1943 0.21 2.29 1944 0.21 2.25 1945 0.21 2.19 1946 0.21 2.05 1947 0.23 1.99 1948 0.26 2.07 1949 0.27 2.16 1950 0.27 2.14 1951 0.27 2.01 1952 0.28 2.00 1953 0.29 2.07 1954 0.29 2.08 1955 0.29 2.09 1956 0.30 2.12 1957 0.31 2.12 1958 0.30 2.02 1959 0.31 2.03 1960 0.31 2.03 1961 0.31 1.98 1962 0.31 1.95 1963 0.30 1.91 1964 0.30 1.89 1965 0.31 1.90 1966 0.32 1.91 1967 0.33 1.91 1968 0.34 1.87 1969 0.35 1.83 1970 0.36 1.77 1971 0.36 1.73 1972 0.36 1.86 1973 0.39 1.68 1974 0.52 2.05 1975 0.57 2.05 1976 0.59 2.01 1977 0.62 1.97 1978 0.63 1.86 1979 0.86 2.28 1980 1.25 2.91 1981 1.38 2.92 1982 1.26 2.51 1983 1.20 2.33 1984 1.18 2.18 1985 1.17 2.09 1986 0.89 1.56 1987 0.91 1.54 1988 0.91 1.48 1989 0.98 1.53 1990 1.13 1.66 1991 1.10 1.56 1992 1.09 1.49 1993 1.07 1.43 1994 1.07 1.40 1995 1.11 1.40 1996 1.20 1.47 1997 1.20 1.44 1998 1.03 1.22 1999 1.14 1.31 2000 1.49 1.66 2001 1.43 1.55 2002 1.34 1.44 2003 1.56 1.63 2004 1.85 1.89

Source: EIA
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 13 Jul 2008, 01:01:58

Back to the topic of this thread:

Where will the energy come from to build all these wonders of technology in an energy scarce world? It’s almost like going from tugging on a rope to pushing it. Technology is only as good as the energy sources to support it. How will we provide energy for growth and energy for massive mitigation efforts while fighting off declining energy availability?

We must innovate and invent long before we peak in energy, or we will not be able to without a massive socio-economical upheaval. The “father” will be shooting blanks. Our inventions will be stillborn. This is what the Hirsch Report is all about.

Remember, in a post-peak world, all new energy expenditures must come from the existing supply. For example: if demand is 100 units and supply is 75 units, we must improve efficiencies or cut use through conservation to meet supply. This will put someone out of work as the economy contracts.

Put them to work building solar you say? Where will the energy come from?

What about growth? Where will that energy come from?

Your share of the pie?

I thought not. But it must.

It must come from the remaining 75 units, displacing even more people and contracting the economy even more.

Feel like you are pushing a rope yet?

Like the dollar poor people of the Great Depression, who will loan you "energy" to get your business/ invention/innovation going?

Who will have it to lend?
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 13 Jul 2008, 02:16:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')till looking for that "cheap" gas, dude.
Look at the graph I posted. When pink dips, light blue dips. When pink rises, light blue rises. Looks like a pretty strong correlation to me.

Dude, I posted the entire history of gasoline prices from 1919 to 2004.
There is no cheap gas during the MPV spike to support your position.
It does not exist.
Give it up.
I am truly confused that you can look at the same graph I look at and yet cannot see for yourself the correlation between gas price and MPV. In your own words, can you describe to me what you see in the graph I posted?

Maybe if I just list the years of low gas prices, is that what you are looking for?
1986 0.89 1.56 1987 0.91 1.54 1988 0.91 1.48 1989 0.98 1.53 1990 1.13 1.66 1991 1.10 1.56 1992 1.09 1.49 1993 1.07 1.43 1994 1.07 1.40 1995 1.11 1.40 1996 1.20 1.47 1997 1.20 1.44 1998 1.03 1.22 1999 1.14 1.31 2000 1.49 1.66 2001 1.43 1.55 2002 1.34 1.44 2003 1.56 1.63

These years were still high, but they were coming down from an even higher peak:
1982 1.26 2.51 1983 1.20 2.33 1984 1.18 2.18 1985 1.17 2.09
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 13 Jul 2008, 05:11:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'M')y bad. I missed the years stated. Yes, that was a period of declining gas prices, but not cheap prices in relation to the 1970's. And while lower gas prices may have had an effect on MPV in that period, it sure didn't play a part 81-85 where prices tripled over the 1970's.
Kublikhan's post never mentioned anything about the 1970's other than that prior to 1973 gasoline was as cheap adjusted for inflation.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 13 Jul 2008, 05:30:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tsakach', 'B')ut the picture is quite different when the energy supply is constant or decreasing. When the energy supply is constant, increases in efficiency may have an effect on economic growth if the net energy obtained from the efficiency gain is greater than the energy expended to produce the efficiency gain.
I think even in a situation where the energy supply is declining a nation could see an increase in economic growth over a sufficiently large time period given the limiting effects on GDP of current fossil fuel use and the ease in efficiency increases.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sun 13 Jul 2008, 05:42:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'A')nd during this 13 year period, per capital went down, not up.
You got me there, I guess anything can be proved with statistics. Well done for digging. 1978 seems to be an aberration, there was a big jump that year. Any ideas? Per capita consumption was back up to 1979 level by 2005 (and maybe earlier; I didn't do the calculation for all years), when the oil price shot up because of Katrina. So the best that can be said is that multiple factors are involved but there seems to be a tug of war here over who's factor is biggest.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'A')fter 91, the efficiencies went more into bigger and faster cars, so average MPG was bound to drop but that doesn't mean efficiencies didn't continue.
If you are disregarding MPG as a measure of efficiency gains, what metric are you using to measure the efficiency gain?
I didn't say I disregarded it but I was quoting from another source (I mentioned it earlier). Do you not think efficiencies can be manifested in more than one way?
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sun 13 Jul 2008, 05:59:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I') think even in a situation where the energy supply is declining a nation could see an increase in economic growth over a sufficiently large time period given the limiting effects on GDP of current fossil fuel use and the ease in efficiency increases.
I didn't understand this. Why is current fossil fuel limiting GDP, what are the easy efficiency increases and why do these factors allow economic growth over a "sufficiently large time period"? What is "sufficiently large", and starting from where?
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 13 Jul 2008, 06:26:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') didn't understand this. Why is current fossil fuel limiting GDP, what are the easy efficiency increases and why do these factors allow economic growth over a "sufficiently large time period"? What is "sufficiently large", and starting from where?
Current fossil fuel uses, such as automobiles, cause significant externalized costs compared to alternatives, as well as being more expensive outright w/ the run up in fuel costs. These externalized costs impact and reduce other economic activity, limiting GDP. For instance cars cause pollution and traffic. Every hour spent in traffic is an unproductive hour, just like every hour spent in the hospital or away from work at home due to sickness from pollution is lost productivity and ultimately GDP. As we can see in the data from other countries, efficiency increases tend to increase the GDP per capita compared to those countries who didn't increase efficiency. As for what sufficiently large starting from some point is, it depends on the situation, what did you have in mind?
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 13 Jul 2008, 13:14:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')I am truly confused that you can look at the same graph I look at and yet cannot see for yourself the correlation between gas price and MPV.


There is no gas cheap enough in the data records to have caused the massive MPV spike. Gas was triple 1970's prices when the spike started.

MPV followed MPG gains. Declining gas prices did play a role, but not enough to overshadow efficiency gains as the prime mover to cause such a spike.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 13 Jul 2008, 13:24:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ')I think even in a situation where the energy supply is declining a nation could see an increase in economic growth over a sufficiently large time period given the limiting effects on GDP of current fossil fuel use and the ease in efficiency increases.


Ever here of the Rule of 70?

What decline rate do you see for oil?

At the current 5.2% decline of existing fields, that means in about 13 years post peak, we have 50% less oil.

First year you have 5.2% decline, plus 2% for growth, leaving a 7.2% shortfall.

Next year, you have a 12.4% shortfall and so on.

We can increase efficiency every year to offset decline and provide for growth?

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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 13 Jul 2008, 13:27:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'M')y bad. I missed the years stated. Yes, that was a period of declining gas prices, but not cheap prices in relation to the 1970's. And while lower gas prices may have had an effect on MPV in that period, it sure didn't play a part 81-85 where prices tripled over the 1970's.
Kublikhan's post never mentioned anything about the 1970's other than that prior to 1973 gasoline was as cheap adjusted for inflation.


But that is the crux of the argument. There wasn't a MPV spike nor that rte of growth when gas was $.35/gal, so what caused the MPV spike when gas tripled from the 1970's?

MPG gains.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 13 Jul 2008, 15:09:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')I am truly confused that you can look at the same graph I look at and yet cannot see for yourself the correlation between gas price and MPV.

There is no gas cheap enough in the data records to have caused the massive MPV spike. Gas was triple 1970's prices when the spike started.
From peak to trough, MPV went from 120% to 93%, a difference of 29%. From peak to trough, gasoline prices went from $2.92 to $1.31, a difference of 123%. The magnitude of the price swings in gasoline are enough to cover the magnitude of the changes in MPV four times over.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 13 Jul 2008, 15:18:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') didn't say I disregarded it but I was quoting from another source (I mentioned it earlier). Do you not think efficiencies can be manifested in more than one way?
Yes, but if we don't have a metric to measure it, it does our discussion little good. Since Americans seemed to have stopped applying their efficiency gains into MPG long ago, perhaps we should look at the efficiency gains of another nation who's MPG did continue to increase. That way we have metrics we can use to measure without any guess work. Wouldn't you agree?
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 01:26:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'M')y bad. I missed the years stated. Yes, that was a period of declining gas prices, but not cheap prices in relation to the 1970's. And while lower gas prices may have had an effect on MPV in that period, it sure didn't play a part 81-85 where prices tripled over the 1970's.
Kublikhan's post never mentioned anything about the 1970's other than that prior to 1973 gasoline was as cheap adjusted for inflation.
But that is the crux of the argument. There wasn't a MPV spike nor that rte of growth when gas was $.35/gal, so what caused the MPV spike when gas tripled from the 1970's?

MPG gains.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'F')rom peak to trough, MPV went from 120% to 93%, a difference of 29%. From peak to trough, gasoline prices went from $2.92 to $1.31, a difference of 123%. The magnitude of the price swings in gasoline are enough to cover the magnitude of the changes in MPV four times over.
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