by DantesPeak » Mon 06 Oct 2008, 20:25:58
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Iaato', 'A')re we having fun yet? Got gold yet?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ere is how the Supplementary Financing Program is alleged to work. The U.S. Treasury Department sells Treasury securities in a public auction and deposits the cash proceeds with the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve thus has “cash for use in the Federal Reserve initiatives”.
Sounds simple enough, but do not be fooled! That is only a part of the story. If the Treasury securities were merely sold into the market and the proceeds were loaned to the Federal Reserve, there would be no impact on Reserve Balances or the Monetary Base. Or as Ed Bugos likes to say, the liquidity would be “sterilized”. In other words, the operation would merely represent a shift of existing money supply within the financial system. Not an injection of new cash. Yet what we have witnessed in the past few weeks is a massive increase in Reserve Balances to the tune of over $160 billion.
And that can only mean one thing: the Fed is now monetizing banking assets (or at least is preparing to do so). This is a bona fide helicopter operation, the first of its kind during the current credit crisis and certainly the largest in the history of First World central banking since the Great Depression. What we don’t know is if these Reserve Balances will turn into Federal Reserve Notes and get stuffed under the mattress as panicked depositors continue to withdraw cash from the banking system or if these Reserve Balances will get loaned out by the banks whose assets are being monetized. If the former, the hyperinflation will be delayed until the cash is taken back out from under the mattress, which will happen once the bank runs have abated. If the latter, hyperinflation could come fast and furious.
In effect, what’s really happening is that the Treasury is borrowing money into existence at the Monetary Base level. This is exactly the same thing that Weimar Germany did. What the Germans (and the Argentinians, Zimbabweans, etc.) found out, and what our “benevolent” leaders will also discover, is that the printing press is a slippery slope to oblivion. The worst-case outcome of giving into this temptation is almost unfathomable.
Ed Bugos-Siveraxis
I've been bringing up this point lately, as I substantially agree withwhat Bugos says.
As of today, the Treasury has borrowed $400 billion and deposited that money to the Fed. Auctions in the next few days total about $130 billion more.
Since the $530 billion is only partly 'sterilized', essentially most of the money deposited at the Fed is relent - and essentially creates new money. This is in addition to the various Fed loan programs, which now have in sum passed $1 trillion.