by evilgenius » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 07:03:58
Hell of a place to be for the Fed, really. If they allow the bad assets to realize at zero, like most should, then so much money will disappear that it will engender deflation. If they stop it with what they have at their disposal then it could cause runaway inflation. I'd be looking for the Fed to do what benefits the super wealthy. Well, to try and do what benefits the super wealthy. I'm not sure that the only way to benefit the super wealthy isn't just to buy them a little more time.
In the meanwhile I'd be looking for changes in any laws that prevent foreign ownership of key US assets, like financial institutions, infrastructure plays, commercial and private real estate, defense contractors, etc. The great foreign buyout will only forestall things for about a year or so. It will cripple Joe Public. It will decrease demand for oil certainly, how much is anybody's guess, however.
My guess is that if a currency is being prepared to supplant the US dollar as oil hegemon it is the Chinese yuan. Too many of the big wigs in and out of the neocon regime have cozy relationships with China, relationships that benefit from China rising and the US tapering down. There are faultlines that still exist between Old Europe and Britain, between Old Europe and the US. To a lesser extent between Briatin and the US. Those faultlines would be exacerbated if the Euro were to become the next oil hegemon. The yuan is safer viewed from that perspective. The biggest problem is keeping control of the changeover mechanisms. The Chinese can have the world if they will just let the rich Americans run it for them, otherwise the rich Americans will slip it from their grasp.
When it comes down to it, the people will always shout, "Free Barabbas." They love Barabbas. He's one of them. He has the same dreams. He does what they wish they could do. That other guy is more removed, more inscrutable. He makes them think. "Crucify him."