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THE S*** Hits the Fan (TSHTF) Thread (merged)

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 29 Sep 2008, 22:12:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StuckInPhilly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', 'I') though they would be able to delay the crash, at least till after the US elections, but the system is going down and down. The mammoth has gained momentum and there´s no way to stop it.
Yup. The horrors of a recession/possibly depression. We've never seen any of those before, and we'll never recover from this one... :P


If anything is for certain it is that we will not get out this depression.
We only got out of the last one because of WWII and that was when we had lotsa cheap gas.
The gubment knew what to do to get us out, but didn't do it.
If anything is for certain it is that some of us will not get out this d00mc0pianism.
Some only got out of the last one because of the real world and that was when we had a little thing called history.
The d00m3rz knew what to do to get us out, but didn't do it. :P
Last edited by yesplease on Mon 29 Sep 2008, 22:34:43, edited 2 times in total.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 29 Sep 2008, 22:13:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', 'I') though they would be able to delay the crash, at least till after the US elections, but the system is going down and down. The mammoth has gained momentum and there´s no way to stop it.
Yup. The horrors of a recession/possibly depression. We've never seen any of those before, and we'll never recover from this one... :P

See you at the other side (in some years) and you can tell me how fun it was.
Only time will tell, but I wouldn't bet against history if I were you.


Who knew global oil production peak and decline were recurring events in history. :razz:So the stock market now depends entirely on oil production? That's news to me, and everyone else in the world. :lol:
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby jupiters_release » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 00:38:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', 'I') though they would be able to delay the crash, at least till after the US elections, but the system is going down and down. The mammoth has gained momentum and there´s no way to stop it.
Yup. The horrors of a recession/possibly depression. We've never seen any of those before, and we'll never recover from this one... :P
See you at the other side (in some years) and you can tell me how fun it was.
Only time will tell, but I wouldn't bet against history if I were you.
Who knew global oil production peak and decline were recurring events in history. :razz:So the stock market now depends entirely on oil production? That's news to me, and everyone else in the world. :lol:
:lol:

+1 for style
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 10:48:27

But style can only get you so far.

"History shows that economic downtrends below the median tend to happen periodically..."

Economist types tend to use the word "history" to refer to past trends in some numerical pattern. Actually history as a discipline is a bit more complex than that.

Economists "history" would show that investing broadly in US stock market over the last 80 or so years or so has been a winning proposition over time. They then confidently say that this will proceed indefinitely into the future.

But actual history shows that the last hundred years or so was "the American Century." Even ignoring PO (which one does at one's peril), how likely is it that the next century will also be and "American Century"?

Statistical economic "history" is a particularly blinkered views of the world.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby TWilliam » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 11:26:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'B')ut style can only get you so far.
"History shows that economic downtrends below the median tend to happen periodically..."
Economist types tend to use the word "history" to refer to past trends in some numerical pattern.
Actually history as a discipline is a bit more complex than that.
Economists "history" would show that investing broadly in US stock market over the last 80 or so years or so has been a winning proposition over time. They then confidently say that this will proceed indefinitely into the future.
But actual history shows that the last hundred years or so was "the American Century." Even ignoring PO (which one does at one's peril), how likely is it that the next century will also be and "American Century"?
Statistical economic "history" is a particularly blinkered vies of the world.

+1

Something that people tend to forget is that in reality, the most one can ever really say with regard to 'history' as a guide to the future is that so far, there are certain aspects of human cultural expression that appear to manifest some cyclic traits.

There is a fundamental maxim in self-development circles that says that the past does not equal the future. Our ability as humans to engage in thoughtful response to stimuli, as opposed to simply reacting, means that there is always the possibility of bucking a trend. The fact that we may rarely do so does not guarantee that we will continue to refrain from doing so indefinitely.
"It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby Revi » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 11:44:08

The black swan event may be the emergence of the green economy out of the mess we've created. The rest can go down, but maybe alternative energy will make it. It could happen.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 12:18:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')he black swan event may be the emergence of the green economy out of the mess we've created. The rest can go down, but maybe alternative energy will make it. It could happen.

With deep enough recession it is very likely for price of conventional energy to go down so much that companies working on alternative energy will simply go bust.

Few years later scarcity of conventional energy will become self evident for all, but alternative energy industry will no longer exist.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby VMarcHart » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 12:49:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')he black swan event may be the emergence of the green economy out of the mess we've created. The rest can go down, but maybe alternative energy will make it. It could happen.
With deep enough recession it is very likely for price of conventional energy to go down so much that companies working on alternative energy will simply go bust. Few years later scarcity of conventional energy will become self evident for all, but alternative energy industry will no longer exist.
I see this scenario as more possible than probable, and either way, if it happens, it doesn't solve the problem of the inevitable fossil fuel depletion. We're in for a surprise.
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby yesplease » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 13:40:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', ' '):lol:

+1 for style
Ty, ty very mucho! :-D
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby yesplease » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 13:47:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')he black swan event may be the emergence of the green economy out of the mess we've created. The rest can go down, but maybe alternative energy will make it. It could happen.
With deep enough recession it is very likely for price of conventional energy to go down so much that companies working on alternative energy will simply go bust. Few years later scarcity of conventional energy will become self evident for all, but alternative energy industry will no longer exist.

Fer sure. Like in the early 80s, oil lost 70+% of it's value compared to it's peak, which would be roughly analagous to it dropping down to $40/bbl currently, and AE companies automagically no longer existed.

The only reason we have AE companies now, is due to a secret government program where secret agents secretly traveled back to the early 80s and secretly abducted entire AE companies, then set them up secretly in the present so they not so secretly could no longer exist all over again after oil's price drops. All of this just so that the secret of AE not existing stays a secret.

P.S. Shhhhh.... Don't respond, It's a secret. :lol:
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby yesplease » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 13:57:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'B')ut style can only get you so far. "History shows that economic downtrends below the median tend to happen periodically..."
Economist types tend to use the word "history" to refer to past trends in some numerical pattern. Actually history as a discipline is a bit more complex than that. Economists "history" would show that investing broadly in US stock market over the last 80 or so years or so has been a winning proposition over time. They then confidently say that this will proceed indefinitely into the future.

Whoa, whoa, whoa, easy there cowboy. Where do (non-hack) economists say that we can invest indefinitely in the U.S. stock market?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'B')ut actual history shows that the last hundred years or so was "the American Century." Even ignoring PO (which one does at one's peril), how likely is it that the next century will also be and "American Century"? Statistical economic "history" is a particularly blinkered views of the world.

Fortunately we don't only have the American stock market to invest in, and if the behavior of the world's markets as a whole is any indication, as a whole we don't invest in just the American markets, but diversify in order to help deal with risk. Even if the American century comes to a close, the rest of world won't suddenly cease to operate, and I imagine that w/o sufficient impetus the rest of the world will continue doing what's it's been doing for the past few thousand years, muddling into the future w/o crashing down as proclaimed by Matt and many others.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby mgibbons19 » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 14:00:57

Just as a note, it's been 17 months since this thread was started. How are we going to define success or failure 6 weeks from now?
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby Jotapay » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 14:31:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mgibbons19', 'J')ust as a note, it's been 17 months since this thread was started. How are we going to define success or failure 6 weeks from now?

Cats and dogs living together, zombies eating brains, cars running on water, a successful third party.....

Until the bodies of hunger-zombies in my front yard get above ankle-deep, the shat hasn't hit the fan just yet.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby nobodypanic » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 14:41:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mgibbons19', 'J')ust as a note, it's been 17 months since this thread was started. How are we going to define success or failure 6 weeks from now?
Cats and dogs living together, zombies eating brains, cars running on water, a successful third party. Until the bodies of hunger-zombies in my front yard get above ankle-deep, the shat hasn't hit the fan just yet.

boy, you really set the bar high! :lol:
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby burtonridr » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 15:11:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mgibbons19', 'J')ust as a note, it's been 17 months since this thread was started. How are we going to define success or failure 6 weeks from now?


an 8% drop in the stock market in one day, the biggest one day sell off in the history of the market.... I think we are close enough to say that it was a successful prediction.

We probably wouldnt be in such a world of hurt if food prices and things hadnt jumped by 75% in one year.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby yesplease » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 16:08:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('burtonridr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mgibbons19', 'J')ust as a note, it's been 17 months since this thread was started. How are we going to define success or failure 6 weeks from now?


an 8% drop in the stock market in one day, the biggest one day sell off in the history of the market.... I think we are close enough to say that it was a successful prediction.
Hold up, the biggest one day sell off? According to that logic, the stock market crash of 1929 was only a drop in the bucket at a few hundred points down. Clearly an 8% one day loss in 2008 followed by a 4% gain the next is much worse than a couple 12-13% one day losses in 1929 or a 23% one day loss in 1987. ;)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('burtonridr', 'W')e probably wouldnt be in such a world of hurt if food prices and things hadnt jumped by 75% in one year.
While it's unpossible to say that those didn't contribute, what we have to thank for this mess is primarily batshitcrazy lending practices and attempts to pass 'em off as anything but.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby Eppo » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 16:25:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('burtonridr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mgibbons19', 'J')ust as a note, it's been 17 months since this thread was started. How are we going to define success or failure 6 weeks from now?
an 8% drop in the stock market in one day, the biggest one day sell off in the history of the market.... I think we are close enough to say that it was a successful prediction. We probably wouldnt be in such a world of hurt if food prices and things hadnt jumped by 75% in one year.

I don't think we're even close to TSHTF. I went out to Sub Marina today (A sub snadwich shop) and people were lined out the door. No granted, that's not a great indicator but if TSHTF then that wouldn't be happening.

I say if we're close to where we are now, the prediction was a failure. If our unemployment rises to around 15-25% we might be able to call it a success.

But, we need to define what "TSHTF" is before we say it's happened.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby Jotapay » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 16:34:47

If you guys are crying uncle today, I fear a severe nervous breakdown for you when there really is some true and sustained civil unrest or martial law.

Trust me, this is NOTHING. Have you ever even seen a third world country in person?? We are not even to third world status yet.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby Eppo » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 17:30:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', 'I')f you guys are crying uncle today, I fear a severe nervous breakdown for you when there really is some true and sustained civil unrest or martial law.

Trust me, this is NOTHING. Have you ever even seen a third world country in person?? We are not even to third world status yet.


Yes, I have seen many third world countries in person. And I agree, we're not even close.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby Ferretlover » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 17:31:52

Oh, the fan is running, and someone occasionally throws a handful at it; however, I think we are still in the pre-game show, waiting for the kickoff.
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