[mark000]

The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West
Niall Ferguson, Joanne J. Myers

This is a book, and also a TV doco.

http://www.cceia.org/resources/transcripts/5396.html


"So it is really very important for us to try to understand why progress coincided with holocausts of violence, with some sixteen conflicts that claimed a million or more deaths. Seen in these terms, the world wars become part of a continuum of organized violence. The book is an attempt to explain why.

The best explanations are easy to remember. At least one person besides me in this room will be jet-lagged, and that person will be glad of the fact that my explanation is relatively easy to commit to memory. It has four parts, and each of them begins with the letter "E," which I find always helps under exam conditions.

1) The first is economic volatility. Now, why is economic volatility important? I know we're uptown, we're not on Wall Street, but give me a couple of minutes on this.

It's important because it helps you to identify the dangerous times. You see, it's crucial that the twentieth century was not evenly violent. Not every year, not every decade, was equally violent. There were huge spikes of organized violence, particularly between 1914 and 1945. I try to show that one reason for this is that the mid-twentieth century was by far the most volatile time.

If you look at fluctuations in growth, inflation, asset prices, the interwar period stands out as being roughly seven times more volatile than our own time. We have almost forgotten what volatility feels like these days. The last ten years have seen almost unprecedented smoothness in the pattern of economic growth in the world's developed economies. And yet, transport yourself back to the 1920s and 1930s, and you enter a time when economic activity went up and down like some kind of fairground ride."
.....
2) My second E is ethnic disintegration. This is terribly important. In many ways, it's the most important argument—and, I think, original argument—in the book. It matters because it helps you identify where violence happened, because, once again, it wasn't evenly geographically distributed. It was, in fact, heavily concentrated in certain parts of the world.

.....

3) My third component in the great equation of disaster also begins with E: it is empires in decline. Counterintuitively from some liberal perspectives, I argue that it is when empires decline and fall that violence is most likely to spike. It is at the moment of this dissolution that the stakes are suddenly terribly high and local elites do battle for, as it were, the political succession.


........
4) The fourth, and final, of my E's - just to recap for those of you revising: economic volatility was the first, ethnic disintegration was the second, empires in decline was the third - the fourth is Eastern ascendancy.


Saw the doco on TV a few months ago, doesnt seem to be online.

[bodigami]

2 and 4 seem racist, and doesn't add much arguments or logic to a TSHTF.

3 has an agenda written all over it, which doesn't hold up to historical scrutiny in that period. World Wars where because of Empires' Expansions, not Empires' Collapse.

1 in and on itself isn't sufficient to cause a TSHTF.

[EndOfSewers]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anagami', '3') has an agenda written all over it, which doesn't hold up to historical scrutiny in that period. World Wars where because of Empires' Expansions, not Empires' Collapse.

[Roccland]

2 months left...

Matty may hit the bulls eye on this one.

[DomusAlbion]

I hereby bestow the title of Dr. Doom on Matt Savinar.
Or maybe that anonymous individual that sent him the information.

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DomusAlbion', 'I') hereby bestow the title of Dr. Doom on Matt Savinar. Or maybe that anonymous individual that sent him the information.

[eXpat]

Nah, not Dr Doom, what about: Visionnaire Extraordinaire?

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'I') will probably be at my contingency location full-time inside of this year if the cookie crumbles correctly, even if this anaylsis is totally incorrect. If it is correct, this leaves without the extra 5-to-10 years or so years I need to even come close to getting a piece of land and getting it off the grid.

[dohboi]

You gotta love this guy.

OK, I'll bite. What exactly would you consider a "melt down" versus just "degrading a lot"?

[RedStateGreen]

I went back and read this whole thread, and it's interesting to compare what people thought might happen, and what actually is.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'I') don't see a mad max scenario within my lifetime

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'Y')ou gotta love this guy. OK, I'll bite. What exactly would you consider a "melt down" versus just "degrading a lot"?

[RedStateGreen]

I tend to agree with Marc. We're not at dogs and cats living together quite yet.

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'Y')ou gotta love this guy. OK, I'll bite. What exactly would you consider a "melt down" versus just "degrading a lot"?

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'M')eltdown to me means the entire world monetary system breaks down, there is rampant theft of all wealth into the hands of those in power and millions of people are dispossessed. Hasn't that already happenned? It just didn't get to your neighborhood yet.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'W')asn't 2007 the year of the crash according to the biggest doomers on the site? Actually, wasn't it 2006, and before that, 2005?

[MrBean]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'O')bviously I hope he is wrong, but it gels with my own sense of things: link I will probably be at my contingency location full-time inside of this year if the cookie crumbles correctly, even if this anaylsis is totally incorrect. If it is correct, this leaves without the extra 5-to-10 years or so years I need to even come close to getting a piece of land and getting it off the grid.

[sparky]

Going for " master of doom "The chances of the U.S. institutions of power watching and doing nothing are zero they will goes to any lengths to protect their turf

The old favorite ...war; probably a devastating first strike on Russia nuclear assets , the anti missiles systems should protect the vital parts of the country playing the Chinese option simultaneously could be considered

the result should not be too one sided; some nuclear explosions in the homeland could be arranged to provide a plausible cover , the interruption of most independent news feed should be sufficient and a state of war declaration would take care of the grumbling , people waiting in queue for food rations don't ask too many questions

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'W')asn't 2007 the year of the crash according to the biggest doomers on the site? Actually, wasn't it 2006, and before that, 2005?

[pedalling_faster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'E')ven worse if you use May 2005 as the peak. Have you ever heard of ELP?