by DantesPeak » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 17:29:04
Let’s review, here’s the primary reason gold and oil are moving up:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he $100 billion the Treasury raised in special issues this week has been mostly deposited with the Fed. The Fed apparently has directly lent most of this money back to banks and brokers.
To over simplify then, the Treasury has acted as a second Federal Reserve and created $100 billion in new money. That's because the Treasury has facilitated the financing of $100 billion in assets formerly just owned by banks/brokers and now 100% financed by the Fed.
This is in addition to the creation of $300 billion in new money, mostly in dollars - even in Europe. The combined effects of the new money will have powerful effects on some asset classes at first, and will eventually bleed into the world economy - causing widespread inflation.
It takes about two years for the effects of monetary expansion to be fully reflected in retail prices. The price of basic commodities like gold, oil, grains are likely to rise first.
Fri Sep 19, 2008 8:03 pm
http://www.peakoil.com/post772790.html#772790$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ssuing $400 billion in new dollars, as was done last week, is hyperinflationary and could rapidly lead to a dollar meltdown.
More specifically, as to why oil went up so much today, my WAG is that a large investor (possibly the US government) intentionally sold futures contracts short it didn't have earlier this month, and was forced to buy them back today.
You may remember the other day, the Treasury announced that the $50 billion exchange stabilization fund was now being used as a kind of FDIC fund for money market accounts.
The ESF also is authorized to ‘stabilize’ any market – that includes the energy markets.
Note that there were many more oil futures contracts expiring today than available oil to deliver. The 'seller' may not have had a profit motive, but some other motive - such as placating the American public during a time of financial crisis.
Next up – gasoline. There are outstanding contracts for 40,000,000 barrels of gasoline to be delivered about the end of the month. There isn’t that much gasoline around to be delivered to New York harbor to meet the futures commitments – so someone will be buying back contracts. Who else would be willing and able to sustain such huge losses besides the ESF?
Please note I have no proof of the above and alternative explanations are welcome.