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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Oil : Gold Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby kpeavey » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 15:04:47

Tough day for civilization.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--for ever."
-George Orwell, 1984
_____

twenty centuries of stony sleep were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle, and what rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
-George Yeats
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby DirtyHowi » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 15:05:19

WTF, the markets arent closed and CNN is calling 120.92 for settle???????
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby Spanktron9 » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 15:17:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DirtyHowi', 'W')TF, the markets arent closed and CNN is calling 120.92 for settle???????


Commodities close at 3pm EST
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby DirtyHowi » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 15:22:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Spanktron9', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DirtyHowi', 'W')TF, the markets arent closed and CNN is calling 120.92 for settle???????


Commodities close at 3pm EST


thanks for the info, guess i got caught in the same time vortex that causes my step mom to call me at all hours...
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby jasonraymondson » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 15:24:48

crazy day, you can smell the fear.

If goes up tomorrow though, then I will be impressed.
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby 3aidlillahi » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 15:25:17

Up to 128! BRING ON THE PAIN. Imagine - $100 oil had gas around $3.80 around here. What's this jump, along with refinery cutbacks, going to do to gas?
Riches are not from abundance of worldly goods, but from a contented mind.
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby americandream » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 15:37:35

Let's pull back on attributing oil's hike to the "free marketeers" fcuk up and look at that other theory they are so fond of throwing at us, "demand destruction". Has there been any of any magnitude? I think not.
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby Roy » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 15:46:03

:)
Last edited by Roy on Sun 12 Oct 2008, 10:11:29, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby Cashmere » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 15:51:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roy', 'B')ack to $108 now. www.321energy.com

WTF?


Don't let those numbers tell you too much:

open outcry in NYC is all that matters - that ends at 230 pm.
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby mefistofeles » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 15:57:05

Why is there such a large spread between WTI and Brent. Its at $15?
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby TheDude » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 16:00:38

Lock limit, wither is thy sting? :twisted:

Everyone should check out this outstanding recent piece by Nate Hagens: Hedge Funds, Hurricanes and Energy Markets.
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby jbrovont » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 16:05:02

Shhh!

Once the Elders have spoken,
the thinking has been done.

;)

(Am I allowed to be that obnoxiously sarcastic?)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'L')et's pull back on attributing oil's hike to the "free marketeers" fcuk up and look at that other theory they are so fond of throwing at us, "demand destruction". Has there been any of any magnitude? I think not.
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby threadbear » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 16:18:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', 'I')'m finding it very difficult to buy gold and silver (the physical metal).

Many of the small shops have no inventory and the online sellers are back-ordered, with the option of refunding your purchase and canceling the order within x days.


Canadian banks sell gold.
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby Niagara » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 16:23:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', 'I')'m finding it very difficult to buy gold and silver (the physical metal).

Many of the small shops have no inventory and the online sellers are back-ordered, with the option of refunding your purchase and canceling the order within x days.


Canadian banks sell gold.

Yes, Scotiabank sells gold but there's still a shortage.

Besides, I like to buy as John Doe and pay cash, which you can't do at the bank.
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby Byron100 » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 16:33:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roy', 'B')ack to $108 now. www.321energy.com

WTF?



Simple explanation for that...the spike in today's price was the October contract being closed out and the short sellers got squeezed big time. The $108 is the new, November front-month contract, which will be the starting price tomorrow am.

Sure will be interesting if we see a repeat of today's spike or not, though.
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby sjn » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 16:42:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roy', 'B')ack to $108 now. www.321energy.com

WTF?



Simple explanation for that...the spike in today's price was the October contract being closed out and the short sellers got squeezed big time. The $108 is the new, November front-month contract, which will be the starting price tomorrow am.
I did predict just this occurance in the "Another Record" thread.
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby BigTex » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 16:58:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'L')ock limit, wither is thy sting? :twisted:

Everyone should check out this outstanding recent piece by Nate Hagens: Hedge Funds, Hurricanes and Energy Markets.


Great article Dude.

Thanks for posting.
:)
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby emersonbiggins » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 17:03:45

So, how does a price spike on contract closing day affect the price of oil in the near-term? Now that we've reset to the new front month at a "mere" $108, is it like today's $25 spike never happened, or what? How is this priced into the market?
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby DantesPeak » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 17:29:04

Let’s review, here’s the primary reason gold and oil are moving up:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he $100 billion the Treasury raised in special issues this week has been mostly deposited with the Fed. The Fed apparently has directly lent most of this money back to banks and brokers.

To over simplify then, the Treasury has acted as a second Federal Reserve and created $100 billion in new money. That's because the Treasury has facilitated the financing of $100 billion in assets formerly just owned by banks/brokers and now 100% financed by the Fed.

This is in addition to the creation of $300 billion in new money, mostly in dollars - even in Europe. The combined effects of the new money will have powerful effects on some asset classes at first, and will eventually bleed into the world economy - causing widespread inflation.

It takes about two years for the effects of monetary expansion to be fully reflected in retail prices. The price of basic commodities like gold, oil, grains are likely to rise first.


Fri Sep 19, 2008 8:03 pm
http://www.peakoil.com/post772790.html#772790


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ssuing $400 billion in new dollars, as was done last week, is hyperinflationary and could rapidly lead to a dollar meltdown.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic45551.html

More specifically, as to why oil went up so much today, my WAG is that a large investor (possibly the US government) intentionally sold futures contracts short it didn't have earlier this month, and was forced to buy them back today.

You may remember the other day, the Treasury announced that the $50 billion exchange stabilization fund was now being used as a kind of FDIC fund for money market accounts.

The ESF also is authorized to ‘stabilize’ any market – that includes the energy markets.

Note that there were many more oil futures contracts expiring today than available oil to deliver. The 'seller' may not have had a profit motive, but some other motive - such as placating the American public during a time of financial crisis.

Next up – gasoline. There are outstanding contracts for 40,000,000 barrels of gasoline to be delivered about the end of the month. There isn’t that much gasoline around to be delivered to New York harbor to meet the futures commitments – so someone will be buying back contracts. Who else would be willing and able to sustain such huge losses besides the ESF?

Please note I have no proof of the above and alternative explanations are welcome.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby DantesPeak » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 17:33:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'S')o, how does a price spike on contract closing day affect the price of oil in the near-term? Now that we've reset to the new front month at a "mere" $108, is it like today's $25 spike never happened, or what? How is this priced into the market?


Technically, today's move doesn't affect the November contract. However it does reveal that one or more groups are attempting to knock down the price of oil by short selling oil contracts they don't have.

There are November contracts representing 300 million barrels expiring next month. The same thing may happen again if that short seller(s) are in there doing their money losing thing again.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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