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It is over!

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: It is over!

Unread postby RonMN » Wed 17 Sep 2008, 21:33:30

Eli is making a huge point here...a point that I've been scratching my head over.

The Fed-Resrv prints the dollar & loans it to the US treasury. That is how a dollar is born...it is loaned into existance.

So what the heck is happening when the US treasury is issuing Treasury notes to "liquify" the fed?

I don't get it (?) Can anybody enlighten me?
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Re: It is over!

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Wed 17 Sep 2008, 21:36:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StuckInPhilly', 'M')aybe they'll drool on us and drop some rotting flesh here and there but zombies eat brains so we're safe in the US. :-D


Depends on the Zombies. The Dan O'Bannon, Return of the Living Dead style zombies eat brains. The classic George Romero zombies eats the whole person.
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The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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Re: It is over!

Unread postby DantesPeak » Wed 17 Sep 2008, 21:40:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'E')li is making a huge point here...a point that I've been scratching my head over.

The Fed-Resrv prints the dollar & loans it to the US treasury. That is how a dollar is born...it is loaned into existance.

So what the heck is happening when the US treasury is issuing Treasury notes to "liquify" the fed?

I don't get it (?) Can anybody enlighten me?



http://www.peakoil.com/post770899.html#770899

Another $60 billion coming tomorrow. Money is fleeing the financial system and going in to Treasuries.

I don't know who will be left with all the garbage no one wants, but I think eventually it will end up at the Fed, as the Fed uses the Treasury money it gets to buy up everyone else's junk.

Of course, this makes the dollar worth even less, and gold more.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: It is over!

Unread postby Revi » Wed 17 Sep 2008, 21:40:21

That new money may look like this:

http://www.amerocurrency.com/support.html
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Re: It is over!

Unread postby jbrovont » Wed 17 Sep 2008, 22:43:14

This is convoluted. The US promises to repay the Fed x dollars + interest. The Fed takes the promise, and creates money to represent the promised amount, and the Treasury injects the money into the economy (theoretically) as directed by Congress (government gpending).

The Fed (again, theoretically) has a reserve of assets against which it makes these loans. On the loan, in the box that says "Employment and Income," the Treasury writes "about 200 million working slaves."

The Fed looks over the moral of the peons, and if everything looks good, says "ok" and fires up the press.

The agreement is that The US Government has offered your work as collateral for a loan. If you don't work, the US Gov't has agreed to beat you until you're motivated to repay their debt to the Fed. If you still don't pay, they'll put you in prison until you "repay your debt to them."

Caveat: The Fed uses a fractional reserve system when it lends to the Treasury. If the Fed has $100 in "assets," it can lend $1,000 or even $10,000 to the Treasury as long as it's a "good bet." (Peons look happy and they're working hard)

Fed banks also lend to each other internally, and externally directly to the peons that want to pretend they're masters. In this case, the thing the peon buys is the collateral, and the fractional reserve the Fed keeps in its vaults is the asset it uses to back the currency it creates for the loan.

While we can easily keep tabs on how much money the Fed creates for the Treasury, we have no way of knowing how much the Fed has created to lend directly to peons unless they release the information - which they don't.

It's difficult to conceive that the Fed has run out of money to lend and is asking the Treasury to provide it with a "backstop." The only way the Treasury can do this, is by creating and selling a bond. The procedes from the bond could then be handed over to the Fed, placed in the Magical Multiplying Vault, and the streets would again flow with milk, honey and dollars.

The Fed statistics seem to suggest they're backing at around 20 to 1. I may not be reading that correctly, but it's close.

I assume the "non-borrowed" column represents the value of reserves owned outright, minus the value of reserves they have leased "borrowed" to lend against. It could also mean the total reserves not lent against. I'm not sure.

The data is pretty cryptic, but superficially we see that the Fed has $-122,367,000,000 of "unborrowed" reserves. Again, I think that's an odd way of saying that they're exposed for $122B in loans against their reserves, or it represents how short they are on reserves compared to how much they should be holding for the amount of money they have created. It also looks like they are claiming $841,771,000,000 in "money supply."

M1 and M2 data for this period are in the ballpark of $1.39T and $7.713T respectively.

Can anyone help put this puzzle together? I can't seem to find a relationship here. There's a roughly $54 billion difference between the M1 supply figure and the "money base" figure on their reserve data sheet.

This should be:

total reserves + currency stock (M1?) + deposits and vault cash.

Odd. Any help would be appreciated.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'E')li is making a huge point here...a point that I've been scratching my head over.

The Fed-Resrv prints the dollar & loans it to the US treasury. That is how a dollar is born...it is loaned into existance.

So what the heck is happening when the US treasury is issuing Treasury notes to "liquify" the fed?

I don't get it (?) Can anybody enlighten me?
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Re: It is over!

Unread postby seldom_seen » Thu 18 Sep 2008, 00:34:10

This is one of the scariest things I've read in a long time:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ur banking system is a safe and a sound one. The American people can be very, very confident about their accounts in our banking system.

Henry Paulson 09/15/08

When a banker starts saying sh*t like that you know things are bad...when it's the Secretary of Treasury? Hells bells, duck and cover...the translation is "There is a very high likelihood of a complete collapse of the banking system with associated panic and bank runs."
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Re: It is over!

Unread postby ki11ercane » Thu 18 Sep 2008, 01:09:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut Americans are justified to be worried, says Nouriel Roubini, of NYU's Stern School and RGE Monitor, who notes there is already a "slow-motion run on retail banks" occurring nationwide.

That "run" could accelerate as people realize the FDIC fund has about $50 billion to "insure" about $1 trillion in assets at the nation's financial institutions, says Roubini. "They're going to run out of money" unless Congress acts soon to recapitalize the FDIC.


Video link from Yesterday.

Congress can only create funds through taxes, they can only tax us to bail us out.


I wonder what would happen if say 50% of the U.S. population simply chose to work only enough to not get taxed at the end of the year, and say the other 50% freely elected to disconnect themselves from all forms of indirect taxation. (reduced consumption, less fuel purchased, etc.) Wonder if the Fed would simply point a gun at the U.S. Citizen and say "consume and work or die."

It truly indeed would be a quiet revolution.
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Re: It is over!

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 18 Sep 2008, 02:44:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ki11ercane', '
')I wonder what would happen if say 50% of the U.S. population simply chose to work only enough to not get taxed at the end of the year, and say the other 50% freely elected to disconnect themselves from all forms of indirect taxation. (reduced consumption, less fuel purchased, etc.) Wonder if the Fed would simply point a gun at the U.S. Citizen and say "consume and work or die."

It truly indeed would be a quiet revolution.

In your scenario you would simply see US bankruptcy.

Civil uprisings, revolution, collapse of law and order, collapse of law enforcement, military etc.

They could try to sell Alaska back to Russians (or to Chinese), they would sell Texas to Mexico and they would switch off light and close the shop.

No one would try to force you to consume, but if you have some debt, you could well find yourself sold as a slave to China at some point. :-D :-D :-D
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Re: It is over!

Unread postby Eppo » Thu 18 Sep 2008, 02:52:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '
')They could try to sell Alaska back to Russians (or to Chinese), they would sell Texas to Mexico


I lived in Texas for 10 years, and it would be one hell of a fight for them to "sell" texas to anyone. Heck, Texans barely think their part of the U.S. It's more like the Texas would sell the U.S. to someone :mrgreen:
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Re: It is over!

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Thu 18 Sep 2008, 03:07:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '
')
In your scenario you would simply see US bankruptcy.

Civil uprisings, revolution, collapse of law and order, collapse of law enforcement, military etc.

They could try to sell Alaska back to Russians (or to Chinese), they would sell Texas to Mexico and they would switch off light and close the shop.

No one would try to force you to consume, but if you have some debt, you could well find yourself sold as a slave to China at some point. :-D :-D :-D


Haven't all these things happenned ALREADY? Or did I miss something?

The US is already bankrupt, they just haven't finished the paperwork on it yet.

Aren't we seeing a collapse in law and order everywhere? Ukraine, Nigeria, Bolivia, Venezuela, Argentina...need I go on? Right here in the USA the bankers and government lackeys are breaking laws all over the place, basically looitng the taxpayers and depostiors in their banks. Just how long before this hits your doorstep as physical law and order disruption? I don't know, but its on its way, you can see the storm in the Sattellite picture even more clearly than Ike. If you don't see it, you are just BLIND. Cat 5 Financial Hurricane.

Selling Assets to China or to Russia? Gimmee a break they are just as toast as we are, the whole damn monetary system is collapsing! Even if you were sold from one country to the next, the slavery is just the same. Heck, we have folks living in Tent Cities in LA ALREADY, and dead bodies hanging from branches in Galveston. This before the REAL dislocation begins. There is no "America" anymore, the dream went up in smoke a while back, maybe around 1786? Ever downward spiral ever since, and only possible then because we basically stole the continent from those who got here before us. Not to mention those willing workers from Africa we toted over here.

Its already bankruptcy. They are just hashing out the details now.

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Re: It is over!

Unread postby CrudeAwakening » Thu 18 Sep 2008, 03:25:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'E')li is making a huge point here...a point that I've been scratching my head over.

The Fed-Resrv prints the dollar & loans it to the US treasury. That is how a dollar is born...it is loaned into existance.

So what the heck is happening when the US treasury is issuing Treasury notes to "liquify" the fed?

I don't get it (?) Can anybody enlighten me?

The only reason the Fed needs the treasury here is to help it expand its balance sheet in a technically non-inflationary manner. The Fed can create money/bank reserves by its usual open market operations, but this is inflationary without a sterilizing offset. Which is where the treasury comes in. By agreeing to auction new treasuries, and freezing the proceeds in its account with the Fed (rather than spending them), bank reserves are drained from the system to offset any Fed treasury purchases. This allows the Fed to recharge its balance sheet with more treasuries (having run down the asset side of its balance sheet in recent months by swapping treasuries for MBS etc).
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Re: It is over!

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Thu 18 Sep 2008, 03:32:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CrudeAwakening', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'E')li is making a huge point here...a point that I've been scratching my head over.

The Fed-Resrv prints the dollar & loans it to the US treasury. That is how a dollar is born...it is loaned into existance.

So what the heck is happening when the US treasury is issuing Treasury notes to "liquify" the fed?

I don't get it (?) Can anybody enlighten me?

The only reason the Fed needs the treasury here is to help it expand its balance sheet in a technically non-inflationary manner. The Fed can create money/bank reserves by its usual open market operations, but this is inflationary without a sterilizing offset. Which is where the treasury comes in. By agreeing to auction new treasuries, and freezing the proceeds in its account with the Fed (rather than spending them), bank reserves are drained from the system to offset any Fed treasury purchases. This allows the Fed to recharge its balance sheet with more treasuries (having run down the asset side of its balance sheet in recent months by swapping treasuries for MBS etc).


Who is left with any money to buy US Treasuries? Hedge Funds? They are going to risk their capital on Treasuries?

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Re: It is over!

Unread postby peripato » Thu 18 Sep 2008, 06:29:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CrudeAwakening', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'E')li is making a huge point here...a point that I've been scratching my head over.

The Fed-Resrv prints the dollar & loans it to the US treasury. That is how a dollar is born...it is loaned into existance.

So what the heck is happening when the US treasury is issuing Treasury notes to "liquify" the fed?

I don't get it (?) Can anybody enlighten me?

The only reason the Fed needs the treasury here is to help it expand its balance sheet in a technically non-inflationary manner. The Fed can create money/bank reserves by its usual open market operations, but this is inflationary without a sterilizing offset. Which is where the treasury comes in. By agreeing to auction new treasuries, and freezing the proceeds in its account with the Fed (rather than spending them), bank reserves are drained from the system to offset any Fed treasury purchases. This allows the Fed to recharge its balance sheet with more treasuries (having run down the asset side of its balance sheet in recent months by swapping treasuries for MBS etc).


Who is left with any money to buy US Treasuries? Hedge Funds? They are going to risk their capital on Treasuries?

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The Chinese?
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Re: It is over!

Unread postby ki11ercane » Thu 18 Sep 2008, 14:41:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eppo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '
')They could try to sell Alaska back to Russians (or to Chinese), they would sell Texas to Mexico


I lived in Texas for 10 years, and it would be one hell of a fight for them to "sell" texas to anyone. Heck, Texans barely think their part of the U.S. It's more like the Texas would sell the U.S. to someone :mrgreen:


I have a friend in California who says Texans sometimes refer to themselves as Northern Mexico. Is that supposed to be a joke in a negative or positive?
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Re: It is over!

Unread postby Jotapay » Thu 18 Sep 2008, 14:49:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ki11ercane', '
')I have a friend in California who says Texans sometimes refer to themselves as Northern Mexico. Is that supposed to be a joke in a negative or positive?


It's a reference to all of the illegals here.
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Re: It is over!

Unread postby AgentR » Thu 18 Sep 2008, 15:30:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ki11ercane', '
')I have a friend in California who says Texans sometimes refer to themselves as Northern Mexico. Is that supposed to be a joke in a negative or positive?

It's a reference to all of the illegals here.


Xenophobia aside.... While there is truth to the fact that there are a lot of illegals in Texas, a very large portion of them are productive residents of the state, many with intact, extended family support living here with them. They aren't here to leach, they're here to work.

In addition, even if some here would pretend otherwise, the Mexican influence in our culture goes much further than your local Taqueria. I think much of New England has strayed further from us, than we have from Mexico, to be honest.

That said, I'd just as soon be plain ole Texas, and when people outside the US ask where I'm from, thats what I say. If they ask if thats in the US, I usually say, "more or less".
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Re: It is over!

Unread postby Jotapay » Thu 18 Sep 2008, 16:28:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '
')Xenophobia aside....


I lived in Europe for 11 years so I'm no stranger to being a minority in another country myself, so I know how it goes.

I look at the illegal alien issue from a financial standpoint for the most part. They are not integrated into society. They don't all pay taxes. They don't have auto or health insurance, they are pretty bad and aggressive drivers who are a menace on the road without insurance. They clog emergency rooms with non-emergencies because they can't get a regular doctor's appointment without health insurance. They have 4 or 5 kids without health insurance while locals have 1 to 3. To southern, traditional Texans, their poor manners (they never say, "thank you", etc), cultural reclusiveness and inability to learn English doesn't endear them to us locals. Since many of them don't pay taxes, they don't pay for the schooling for their children. And their children may not speak English which costs taxpayers even more money then the school system would otherwise.

Bottom line is they are a financial liability and I wind up paying for their resources they consume.
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Re: It is over!

Unread postby AgentR » Thu 18 Sep 2008, 20:04:37

Its an excuse really... so much 'they'... with broad brush strokes sweeping the field. Many anglos are not integrated into society, nor pay taxes, are horrible drivers who drive without health and auto insurance. ER's are filled with indigent people of all sorts, all of whom are entitled by the TEXAS CONSTITUTION to adequate health care. Big families are not anathema, and health insurance is a tool not available to many large families with or without citizenship.

"They", and I despise that pronoun with a passion in discussions about things like this, do seem to have somewhat more cliquishness than other groups within the US; but I wonder how much of it is worry about being consumed by our own "wealth greater than family" lifestyles.

As to language skill, they seem equally able to learn English as anyone else; whether they choose to USE English much is another matter, but that is not that different from other overseas cliques that exist in Texas.

Schools are largely paid for with property taxes, if you own property, you pay, if you rent, you pay via your rent through your landlord. Not sure how being Mexican makes you immune to this process.

PS: Their children speak English perfectly fine. They may however, be entirely uninterested in speaking English to you.
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Re: It is over!

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 18 Sep 2008, 20:15:23

AgentR,

I agree. Texas was once Mexico. The reason there are so many Hispanics is, THEY were here first.

And don't forget the indigineous American Indian population.

Anglo Texans would rather believe the myth of an Anglo-Republican state, suffering as a result of those miserable little non-anglo immigrants.
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Re: It is over!

Unread postby nobodypanic » Thu 18 Sep 2008, 20:21:21

swelling the labor pool w/illegal aliens depresses the wages of the most vulnerable portion of our population so that greedy F'ers can extract more of a profit. not only do they screw the american worker, but they also screw the poor illegal (who is simply trying to achieve a better life) by exploiting him in near slave labor conditions.

don't blame the illegal, blame the extortionist buisness owners that hire them. if you'd line those buisness owner punks up against the wall for such crimes, the illegals wouldn't come here in the first place.
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