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You guys sound like a pack of damn ninnies

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: You guys sound like a pack of damn ninnies

Postby Specop_007 » Tue 16 Sep 2008, 14:09:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', 'I') have no money invested so I can’t lose any. That was my point. You seem to be a know-it-all b!tch so good luck with that BOTTOM LINE: In a depression, a lot of people lose money, even their life savings.

It has nothing to do with being a know it all and everything to do with being confident enough in my understanding and assessment of the situation to ACT on it.

I see a whole bunch of people with opinions. I see damned few who are confident enough to act on what they believe. That alone tells me everything I need to know about how confident they are in what they type.

The first guy to test a parachute, now he was one confident son of a bitch wasnt he?
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Re: You guys sound like a pack of damn ninnies

Postby nobodypanic » Tue 16 Sep 2008, 14:52:50

next week it's all over! [smilie=BangHead.gif]
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Re: You guys sound like a pack of damn ninnies

Postby kublikhan » Tue 16 Sep 2008, 15:00:43

I'm with you Specop, I think a lot of these people declaring that the end is here are living in fantasy land.

As for putting my money were my mouth is, I've been saying for months that commodities were overvalued and their rise was not driven by fundamentals. Now over a year's worth of gains have been wiped out:
Commodities

Saved quiet a penny by not buying into the hype.
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: You guys sound like a pack of damn ninnies

Postby hironegro » Tue 16 Sep 2008, 15:21:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', 'I') know very well people are losing jobs. You can either give up or pick yourself up and carry on. .

boot-straps!
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Re: You guys sound like a pack of damn ninnies

Postby threadbear » Tue 16 Sep 2008, 15:56:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I')'m with you Specop, I think a lot of these people declaring that the end is here are living in fantasy land.

As for putting my money were my mouth is, I've been saying for months that commodities were overvalued and their rise was not driven by fundamentals. Now over a year's worth of gains have been wiped out:
Commodities

Saved quiet a penny by not buying into the hype.


You and I both. I also advised people who were buying precious metals, to hedge with cash. I haven't made any money in the last couple of months, but haven't lost anything either. Oil going from 60.00 to 147.00 in just over a year, was a big red flag.

I would be really wary, at this point, of succumbing to the capitulation effect. You have to be just as vigilant that commodities will go into over sold conditions. Peak resources, still raises the floor price, so you should make your moves accordingly. Watch Russia and Saudi Arabia, and also Russia's relationship with Opec.
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Re: You guys sound like a pack of damn ninnies

Postby threadbear » Tue 16 Sep 2008, 16:08:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil_be_alroit', 'I') think Specop_007 certainly has a point.

OTOH it could be a bit like the guy who jumps out of 50 storey building saying as he goes past the 25th storey "Well, it's OK so far!"


Specop is a pretty good contrary indicator. If he thinks things muddle along, I will take the opposing view. It's going to be hellish. Thanks Specop.
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Re: You guys sound like a pack of damn ninnies

Postby Delphis » Tue 16 Sep 2008, 17:02:12

[quote="AlexdeLarge"]No, the sky is not falling............but the DOW sure is! LOL
quote]

"If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?"

"If the Dow Falls in the market and you are one of the one's shorting the dow or investing in good companies and companies other than those thirty, does your portfolio make a sound"

The answer is YES! I am with Specop...research and knowledge are everything, and having a discipline and not getting emotional or letting the doom crawl up your trousers is paramount!
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Re: You guys sound like a pack of damn ninnies

Postby vision-master » Tue 16 Sep 2008, 17:33:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', 'S')ome of you sound like a sewing circle thats run out of yarn. Seriously. For the past 4 months or so all I've seen is "Next week it all comes down!". And next week comes. "Next week it all comes down!" And next week comes "Next month it all comes down!".
Well, it hasnt. Its not going to. What your seeing is some major players taking major losses from majorly poor decisions, but the world isnt going to end and the markets arent going to die. I said WaMu would run strong and buy at 4 2 months ago when everything though they were dead. I said last week Wamu would hold strong. I also said Monday wouldnt be the meltdown of the markets. --snip-- My 2 cents. Now GO out there and take the money thats YOURS. Do some research, make smart moves, take bets in your favor and TAKE the money thats waiting for you, thats ASKING you to take it!

What about all those millions of ppl already living on the edge? Ever think of them Mr money-bags, eh! Your so living in a dream world Dude.
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Re: You guys sound like a pack of damn ninnies

Postby vision-master » Tue 16 Sep 2008, 17:42:47

Glad I [s]worked [/s]suffered all those years in Government! :razz:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')What impact will the recent market upheaval have on PERA? (Sep 16, 2008)
For our retirees and other benefit recipients, the recent market upheaval will have no impact on benefits. Benefits are protected by state and federal law and by Minnesota's constitution. As for current active members, benefits promised are based on your years of public service and high-five salary, not on the current value of PERA's assets. We currently have $18 billion in assets and receive an additional $750 million in member and employer contributions every year. Thus, a short-term market correction has no direct effect on benefits, whether you are retired or getting close to retirement.

Market fluctuations, like the 500 point drop in the Dow Monday, September 15, have relatively little impact on PERA. That is because the State Board of Investment has structured our investment portfolios for the long-term growth of pensions funds, not day-to-day profit taking. SBI maintains a very diversified portfolio, so downturns in one sector of the market are not devastating for the funds. Markets, by their very nature, can be very volatile over short periods of time. But the SBI has its sights set on a time horizon that is measured in decades, not in days, weeks or months.
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Re: You guys sound like a pack of damn ninnies

Postby AlexdeLarge » Tue 16 Sep 2008, 17:44:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Delphis', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlexdeLarge', 'N')o, the sky is not falling...but the DOW sure is! LOL

"If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?"

"If the Dow Falls in the market and you are one of the one's shorting the dow or investing in good companies and companies other than those thirty, does your portfolio make a sound" The answer is YES! I am with Specop, research and knowledge are everything, and having a discipline and not getting emotional or letting the doom crawl up your trousers is paramount!


Your portofolio makes a "thunk" as it is sucked down with the rest of the market. The good, the bad and the ugly! LOL But the good companies will come back in Time, like 2010. Best plan: no debt, and be in cash, 3 mth t bills, some money market, Let the tide go out and be ready to float your boat when the fair weather comes back.
Viddy well, little brother. Viddy well.
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Re: You guys sound like a pack of damn ninnies

Postby smiley » Tue 16 Sep 2008, 19:13:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')nd having a discipline and not getting emotional or letting the doom crawl up your trousers is paramount!

Then I would suggest to keep watching Fox news and avoid the BBC world service link. It might upset you
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Re: You guys sound like a pack of damn ninnies

Postby Specop_007 » Tue 16 Sep 2008, 19:36:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'W')hat about all those millions of ppl already living on the edge? Ever think of them Mr money-bags, eh! Your so living in a dream world Dude.

What about them? If their living on the edge they probably dont have much excess to invest anyways so the market might as well be a pie in the sky to them. More importantly, they were living too close to the edge ANYWAYS so financial ruin was in the future regardless of economic conditions. The only question was if it was going to be economic conditions or old age that bit them in the ass. It appears they wont have to worry about hitting 70 with no savings as they will lose all their savings now.

Either way they were lost.
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Re: You guys sound like a pack of damn ninnies

Postby vision-master » Tue 16 Sep 2008, 19:39:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', 'W')hat about them? If their living on the edge they probably dont have much excess to invest anyways so the market might as well be a pie in the sky to them. More importantly, they were living too close to the edge ANYWAYS so fi9nancial ruin was in the future regardless of economic conditions. The only question was if it was going to be economic conditions or old age that bit them in the ass. It appears they wont have to worry about hitting 70 with no savings as they will lose all their savings now. Either way they were lost.

But they might be armed. Think take from the rich by force. After all, what do they have to lose?
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Re: You guys sound like a pack of damn ninnies

Postby jbrovont » Tue 16 Sep 2008, 19:41:30

Regarding retirement plans: in 1990, mutual funds, mostly tracking indexes, accounted for 5% of 401(k) investments. By 2000, mutual funds represented about 50% of these investments. link
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.').. [John Bogle] testified before the Senate in November of 2003. ... He basically said ... from [1984] to 2002, when the [stock] market did [a] 12 percent [annual] return, the mutual fund industry credited 9 percent. ... The average investor [in mutual funds], according to [mutual fund data collector] DALBAR, did 2.7 percent. ...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell, it's awesome. Let me give you a little longer-term example: ... an individual who is 20 years old today starting to accumulate for retirement. That person has about 45 years to go before retirement -- 20 to 65 -- and then, if you believe the actuarial tables, another 20 years to go before death mercifully brings his or her life to a close. So that's 65 years of investing. If you invest $1,000 at the beginning of that time and earn 8 percent, that $1,000 will grow ... to around $140,000.

Now, the financial system -- the mutual fund system in this case -- will take about two and a half percentage points out of that return, so you will have ... a net return of 5.5 percent, and your $1,000 will grow to approximately $30,000. One hundred ten thousand dollars goes to the financial system and $30,000 to you, the investor. Think about that. That means the financial system put up zero percent of the capital and took zero percent of the risk and got almost 80 percent of the return, and you, the investor in this long time period, an investment lifetime, put up 100 percent of the capital, took 100 percent of the risk, and got only a little bit over 20 percent of the return. That is a financial system that is failing investors because of those costs of financial advice and brokerage, some hidden, some out in plain sight, that investors face today. So the system has to be fixed.

Thanks to ERISA, self directed 401(k) plans have always been available. After the market started to boom in the 90s, people wanted the freedom to choose investments themselves. Some people do very well at this. Most people don't have the knowledge, and therefore by making bad choices, transfer their wealth to people who do have the skills. Self directed 401(k) are good business, and they're marketed like a product. We already know people buy what they're sold. E-Trade is HUGE. Why? We also know Americans buy the "get rich quick" scheme, and the "American Dream." Look at the financial commercials: beaches, yahts, kids in college.
Yay! I want that too! ;)

Cui Bono? Not J6p. J6P wants Specop's boons, but lacks his leet investment skills. Specop grows rich, J6P loses his retirement. When j6p becomes too poor, can't retire etc, he either works until he dies, riots, ends up in prison or loses his health/mind and ends up in a hospital or on the street. One more lost soul. One more liability on the social welfare balance sheet.

Who pays for j6p in his final years? Everyone. Even Specop, but he only pays a small fraction, probably around 1/100,000,000 th of the total cost according to his tax bracket. Specop grows rich, and we all foot the bill for him. It's like a microcosmic Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae bailout. :)

But hey - it's j6p's fault. He shouldn't have invested unless he knew what he was doing. Yes, true, he shouldn't have. None the less, he did, and someone has to clean up the mess. Our civilization's self-concept demands that we do. More than that, we didn't provide a solid framework to educate j6p on the risks, make sure he had the skills before he did it, etc. There's a really fancy phrase for that. It's called "Social Responsibility."

Psycologically, it's what divides agrarian societies from small roving nomadic hunters. It's the mentality that "The good of the many outweighs the good of the one." It's what allows specialization in societal roles. It's partially learned, and partially innate in most people (except sociopaths).

Developmentally, the idea of cooperation and social responsibility comes after learning that everyone benefits from taking care of eachother. If cooperative behaviors aren't reinforced in childhood and through young adulthood, they are unlikely to be incorperated into a person's world view. I'm not saying people who don't feel social responsibility are all sociopaths - they just haven't learned the skills to function in a modern egalitarian society. They function best in a monarchial cast based society.

Specop believes he's entitled to all his earnings because he doesn't feel that anyone else has contributed in helping him get them. A full blown communist believes everyone is entitled to what they earn because they believe the society in which they live has made it possible for them to create wealth. Two sides of the same coin, but alas I digress.

Back on focus, the point is that 401(k) retirement plans have turned into a vehicle that moves 80% of retirement funds into index funds. Some 50% of those (40% overall) end up getting moved totally or partially from the indexes by micromanaging casual invester, then taken to the cleaners and enriching people like Specop. Actually most of it probably goes to people investing on a much larger scale than Specop. The other 40% of 401(k) funds under mutual fund managment are mostly in index funds. They're getting hammered right now too. The overall result is just a transfer and consolidation of wealth leading to a massive problem that will end up being a huge national expense that tax-payers will againhave to bail out.

Some stats from 2007:
Private retirment funds in:
GSEs: $265.7B
Credit market instruments: $738.2B

Government retirment funds in:
GSEs: $317B
Credit market instruments: 799.8B

Total exposure: $2.1207T link
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Re: You guys sound like a pack of damn ninnies

Postby Specop_007 » Tue 16 Sep 2008, 21:20:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'B')ut they might be armed. Think take from the rich by force. After all, what do they have to lose?

Take what?? The silverware? Most of the wealth in this country is a number on a piece of paper or a computer screen.....
And most have something to lose. Kids, parents, ideas, hopes, dreams. Everyone has something to lose. Some just dont realize it.
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Re: You guys sound like a pack of damn ninnies

Postby Cid_Yama » Tue 16 Sep 2008, 21:34:22

During the French Revolution, it wasn't the knick-knacks they wanted, it was the heads.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
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Re: You guys sound like a pack of damn ninnies

Postby Eppo » Tue 16 Sep 2008, 21:35:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'B')ut they might be armed. Think take from the rich by force. After all, what do they have to lose?

You don't think the rich have guns or security too? I can promise these people wouldn't get winin a mile of Bill Gates' or any other super rich person's house.
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Re: You guys sound like a pack of damn ninnies

Postby jdmartin » Tue 16 Sep 2008, 23:58:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eppo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'B')ut they might be armed. Think take from the rich by force. After all, what do they have to lose?

You don't think the rich have guns or security too? I can promise these people wouldn't get winin a mile of Bill Gates' or any other super rich person's house.


:lol: Surely you jest - the "guards" would be the first ones to take out the masters. Southern slaveowners feared less outside aggression and more internal slave uprisings. Who better to kill you than the people closest to you? Been that way since Roman times, hell even before I'm sure.
After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
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Re: You guys sound like a pack of damn ninnies

Postby MrBill » Wed 17 Sep 2008, 05:22:25

[align=center]Image[/align]
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') said it in another thread. In the past 8 months I've more then doubled my money. Everyone else is screaming pack up and run, I say buy the fear and sell the euphoria and theres a few people who are making a lot of money doing just that. Its not for the faint of heart and its not for the passive investor.


I have certainly researched it enough to know that you cannot double your money every eight months in a bear market. Unless you're short selling and using leverage. Or you plowed all your money into OTM options. Then, yes, you can lose everything.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', '
')Are they? Are you sure? How? Where? If I have Vanguard funds am I safe? How about AIG funds? What about cash under the mattress? Maybe I'm well diversified in stocks, bonds and mutual funds, would I lose everything?

Are you just making off the cuff statements or have you researched it enough to know? If you HAVE researched it enough to know why are you not shorting or investing where you believe there will be growth?


If you are well diversified in stocks, bonds and mutual funds then you're not doubling your money every eight months. Not you. Not Jim Rogers. Not Warren Buffet. Not T. Boone Pickens. Not this year.
[align=center]Image[/align]
I am sure Jim Rogers made a lot being short Frannie, but that is another story.
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Re: You guys sound like a pack of damn ninnies

Postby ReverseEngineer » Wed 17 Sep 2008, 05:41:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')nd having a discipline and not getting emotional or letting the doom crawl up your trousers is paramount!

Then I would suggest to keep watching Fox news and avoid the BBC world service link. It might upset you


Holy COW! I made this Doom Call a while back, but I NEVER thought I would see it happen quite THIS fast.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')omeless Now Moving Into Foreclosed and Abandoned McMansions
CLEVELAND - The nation's foreclosure crisis has led to a painful irony for homeless people: On any given night they are outnumbered in some cities by vacant

Foreclosed homes often have an advantage over boarded-up and dilapidated houses abandoned because of rundown conditions: Sometimes the heat, lights and water are still working.

"That's what you call convenient," said James Bertan


As I said back then, in my own neighborhood there are just a ton of properties vacant with For Sale signs on them.

Why on EARTH would anyone pay rent or pay on a mortgage when basically you can walk into any of these houses and squat on the land, at least for as long as you have food anyhow and the water is still running?

You got Tent Cities going up in LA from evicted Homeowners, and another bunch of squatters going in and occupying the homes they once lived in! How topsy-turvy is THAT?

If you are still paying down a mortgage and going broke while you try, you are NUTS.

I personally am astounded I called this one right so early.

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