by jbrovont » Tue 16 Sep 2008, 19:41:30
Regarding retirement plans: in 1990, mutual funds, mostly tracking indexes, accounted for 5% of 401(k) investments. By 2000, mutual funds represented about 50% of these investments.
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$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.').. [John Bogle] testified before the Senate in November of 2003. ... He basically said ... from [1984] to 2002, when the [stock] market did [a] 12 percent [annual] return, the mutual fund industry credited 9 percent. ... The average investor [in mutual funds], according to [mutual fund data collector] DALBAR, did 2.7 percent. ...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell, it's awesome. Let me give you a little longer-term example: ... an individual who is 20 years old today starting to accumulate for retirement. That person has about 45 years to go before retirement -- 20 to 65 -- and then, if you believe the actuarial tables, another 20 years to go before death mercifully brings his or her life to a close. So that's 65 years of investing. If you invest $1,000 at the beginning of that time and earn 8 percent, that $1,000 will grow ... to around $140,000.
Now, the financial system -- the mutual fund system in this case -- will take about two and a half percentage points out of that return, so you will have ... a net return of 5.5 percent, and your $1,000 will grow to approximately $30,000. One hundred ten thousand dollars goes to the financial system and $30,000 to you, the investor. Think about that. That means the financial system put up zero percent of the capital and took zero percent of the risk and got almost 80 percent of the return, and you, the investor in this long time period, an investment lifetime, put up 100 percent of the capital, took 100 percent of the risk, and got only a little bit over 20 percent of the return. That is a financial system that is failing investors because of those costs of financial advice and brokerage, some hidden, some out in plain sight, that investors face today. So the system has to be fixed.
Thanks to ERISA, self directed 401(k) plans have always been available. After the market started to boom in the 90s, people wanted the freedom to choose investments themselves. Some people do very well at this. Most people don't have the knowledge, and therefore by making bad choices, transfer their wealth to people who do have the skills. Self directed 401(k) are good business, and they're marketed like a product. We already know people buy what they're sold. E-Trade is HUGE. Why? We also know Americans buy the "get rich quick" scheme, and the "American Dream." Look at the financial commercials: beaches, yahts, kids in college.
Yay! I want that too!
Cui Bono? Not J6p. J6P wants Specop's boons, but lacks his leet investment skills. Specop grows rich, J6P loses his retirement. When j6p becomes too poor, can't retire etc, he either works until he dies, riots, ends up in prison or loses his health/mind and ends up in a hospital or on the street. One more lost soul. One more liability on the social welfare balance sheet.
Who pays for j6p in his final years? Everyone. Even Specop, but he only pays a small fraction, probably around 1/100,000,000 th of the total cost according to his tax bracket. Specop grows rich, and we all foot the bill for him. It's like a microcosmic Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae bailout.
But hey - it's j6p's fault. He shouldn't have invested unless he knew what he was doing. Yes, true, he shouldn't have. None the less, he did, and someone has to clean up the mess. Our civilization's self-concept demands that we do. More than that, we didn't provide a solid framework to educate j6p on the risks, make sure he had the skills before he did it, etc. There's a really fancy phrase for that. It's called "Social Responsibility."
Psycologically, it's what divides agrarian societies from small roving nomadic hunters. It's the mentality that "The good of the many outweighs the good of the one." It's what allows specialization in societal roles. It's partially learned, and partially innate in most people (except sociopaths).
Developmentally, the idea of cooperation and social responsibility comes after learning that everyone benefits from taking care of eachother. If cooperative behaviors aren't reinforced in childhood and through young adulthood, they are unlikely to be incorperated into a person's world view. I'm not saying people who don't feel social responsibility are all sociopaths - they just haven't learned the skills to function in a modern egalitarian society. They function best in a monarchial cast based society.
Specop believes he's entitled to all his earnings because he doesn't feel that anyone else has contributed in helping him get them. A full blown communist believes everyone is entitled to what they earn because they believe the society in which they live has made it possible for them to create wealth. Two sides of the same coin, but alas I digress.
Back on focus, the point is that 401(k) retirement plans have turned into a vehicle that moves 80% of retirement funds into index funds. Some 50% of those (40% overall) end up getting moved totally or partially from the indexes by micromanaging casual invester, then taken to the cleaners and enriching people like Specop. Actually most of it probably goes to people investing on a much larger scale than Specop. The other 40% of 401(k) funds under mutual fund managment are mostly in index funds. They're getting hammered right now too. The overall result is just a transfer and consolidation of wealth leading to a massive problem that will end up being a huge national expense that tax-payers will
againhave to bail out.
Some stats from 2007:
Private retirment funds in:
GSEs: $265.7B
Credit market instruments: $738.2B
Government retirment funds in:
GSEs: $317B
Credit market instruments: 799.8B
Total exposure: $2.1207T
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