[shortonoil]

vtsnowedin said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ven though Wallmart saves money with their JIT system I dont see it as requiring great amounts of capital to go back to a ware house system. At the most it just slows down their cash flow.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'A')s the economy declines and Walmarts JIT rolling warehouse model fails will they not just convert the back half or so of each Walmart to warehouse space?

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '[').

The stores that are being devastated right now are the "specialty shops".
You know what I'm talking about. It's those small shops you see in the shopping mall that sells some over-priced stuff that really is NOT a necessity: specialty soaps, candles, a shiatsu foot massager, etc...

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '[').

The stores that are being devastated right now are the "specialty shops".
You know what I'm talking about. It's those small shops you see in the shopping mall that sells some over-priced stuff that really is NOT a necessity: specialty soaps, candles, a shiatsu foot massager, etc...

[vtsnowedin]

I know, A dollar is a dollar and gross domestic product is just that , "Gross" But I just can't place as much value on a dollars worth of sented candle as I can on a dollars worth of bridge concrete. There is so much work that needs to be done the sooner we stop wasting money on trinkets and candles and get started the better.

[CarlosFerreira]

Those shops closing will send many people to unemployment. The "necessary products" economy can't employ everyone right now. The overpopulation means those people need to be in the fat of the economy. Remember: one of the potential problems of PO is either unemployment, from economic slowdown, or overpricing from having too many paid people working in what is now made cheaper by machines and energy. 6000 shops closing is nothing to cheer about.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '[').

The stores that are being devastated right now are the "specialty shops".
You know what I'm talking about. It's those small shops you see in the shopping mall that sells some over-priced stuff that really is NOT a necessity: specialty soaps, candles, a shiatsu foot massager, etc...

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')We probably need 15-25% of our workforce to meet all our basic needs for food, fuel, shelter, etc. The rest out of necessity is either employed in services or in producing luxury products or discretionary spending.

[MrBill]

Get a grip? F-U! I didn't say anything about post peak oil. I was talking about the here and now. The point is that the economy expands to include free labor. From a societal point of view that free labor consumes whether it produces anything of 'value' or not. Can you possibly waste anymore of my time? Thanks.

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'G')et a grip? F-U! I didn't say anything about post peak oil. I was talking about the here and now. The point is that the economy expands to include free labor. From a societal point of view that free labor consumes whether it produces anything of 'value' or not. Can you possibly waste anymore of my time? Thanks.

[MrBill]

Hmm, the problem it seems is that once the food industry is organized in its current shape (as a response to cheap fuel and relatively more expensive labor) that it is not that easy to reverse this process. Circa 1945 you may have had closer to 50% of the population on the land, and the average land holding was a quarter section (give or take a few acres). Now that would be considered a hobby farm. Even with more expensive energy (either petroleum or bio-fuels) the dynamic between fuel and labor still tilts in fuel's favor.

A 40HP tractor with a front-end loader, 3-point hitch and power take-off replaces a lot of human labor or draught power. The best part is that you do not have to keep your tractor fed and housed when you're not using it. And at least in the N. Hemisphere agriculture is still mainly seasonal. I just do not see agriculture absorbing great amounts of excess labor? And for seasonal work like picking fruit or bringing in the harvest what do you do with this labor when it is not needed?

At the moment (not at some interval in the future) we (Canada and USA) spend approximately 43-percent of our discretionary income in restaurants and bars versus just 6-8 percent on basic food. That means that the food industry absorbs vastly more excess labor than agriculture. But it also means that as economic times get tougher, and energy prices increase, that consumers will cutback first in meals eaten out.

How the world spends its money

If we look at the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the period of time leading up to that event, then we see small garden plots and weekend homes in the country as being a very important stop gap measure in helping families cope with both higher food prices and the inavailability of some foods. But these plots of land were more of a garden size versus being classified as farms. Even in places like Poland I would not consider 1 or 2 hectares a proper farm. Certainly enough to provide a meagre subsistance at best.

Cows and chickens in the backyard or a hutch of rabbits in suberbia? Maybe. It depends on enforcement of zoning laws. Will our rules and regulations change (quickly enough) to respond to the higher unemployment that comes from fuel scarcity? That is not really an economic question so much as it is a social and political response to a new physical reality.

[vtsnowedin]

I think that the average shop girl sales person if moved to the farm, properly supervised and directed ,but denied the use of any oil ,would not be able to grow enough food to pay her the minimum wage. The minimum wage is an artifical device that is inflationary and will fall by the wayside post peak.
Now post peak but pre collapse ,why not have robots do all the labor? we have been working in that direction post WWII. Look at how many employees worked on a auto assembly line in 1950 and payed income taxes on the wages, and look at how many fewer work that same line today. Bad part is the robot welders and painters don't pay income tax or into the retirement fund. Might have to switch to a value added tax to make the robots the tax payers. Wonder what R2-D2 uses for fuel?
As oil becomes scarce I expect to see more robots not less. Many applications can be fed by electricity from what ever source and you dont have to provide them food or health care. Even the replacement of the infantryman is approching. much easier to order another one from the factory then to write a condolance letter to a lost soldiers mother.
So post peak your shop girl needs to find work that a robot can't do well and charge enough for it to pay the bills. Hemmm.??

[MrBill]

In the relatively recent past, say 1870 to 1914, so within the industrial age period, if you did not have a skilled trade or did not own land then with all likelyhood you were very poor. The first social safety nets as in old age pensions only appeared under Bismark in that period. But in general if you could not work, or if you performed manual, unskilled labor, you did not live well, and you were always one injury away from the poor house.

It would take a generation to teach unskilled workers how to farm again. But even then they would not likely own the land they were working, so the economic benefit would still go to the landowner and not to labor. Not a lot of Mexican farm laborers are getting rich. That may be better than being unemployed and very poor in the city, but it would still be a whole new reality compared to what unskilled labor in the developed world has come to expect as their birthright. Welcome to the everyday reality of the developing world.

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'H')mm, the problem it seems is that once the food industry is organized in its current shape (as a response to cheap fuel and relatively more expensive labor) that it is not that easy to reverse this process. Circa 1945 you may have had closer to 50% of the population on the land, and the average land holding was a quarter section (give or take a few acres). Now that would be considered a hobby farm. Even with more expensive energy (either petroleum or bio-fuels) the dynamic between fuel and labor still tilts in fuel's favor.

A 40HP tractor with a front-end loader, 3-point hitch and power take-off replaces a lot of human labor or draught power. The best part is that you do not have to keep your tractor fed and housed when you're not using it. And at least in the N. Hemisphere agriculture is still mainly seasonal. I just do not see agriculture absorbing great amounts of excess labor? And for seasonal work like picking fruit or bringing in the harvest what do you do with this labor when it is not needed?

At the moment (not at some interval in the future) we (Canada and USA) spend approximately 43-percent of our discretionary income in restaurants and bars versus just 6-8 percent on basic food. That means that the food industry absorbs vastly more excess labor than agriculture. But it also means that as economic times get tougher, and energy prices increase, that consumers will cutback first in meals eaten out.

How the world spends its money

If we look at the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the period of time leading up to that event, then we see small garden plots and weekend homes in the country as being a very important stop gap measure in helping families cope with both higher food prices and the inavailability of some foods. But these plots of land were more of a garden size versus being classified as farms. Even in places like Poland I would not consider 1 or 2 hectares a proper farm. Certainly enough to provide a meagre subsistance at best.

Cows and chickens in the backyard or a hutch of rabbits in suberbia? Maybe. It depends on enforcement of zoning laws. Will our rules and regulations change (quickly enough) to respond to the higher unemployment that comes from fuel scarcity? That is not really an economic question so much as it is a social and political response to a new physical reality.

[MrBill]

Human labor cannot compete with a tractor. It takes more calories to feed them. Whether you grow food to feed farm laborers or grow crops to be made into bio-fuels (either ethanol or bio-diesel) the tractor performs more work. At least for growing crops. Farm labor is best kept for intensive operations like picking fruit, harvesting a small garden or tending to livestock. Even if the marginal cost of labor is zero (and it is not as labor needs to be fed and housed even when it is producing no work) it cannot compete with the energy efficiency of a tractor. I cannot accept the argument that in response to fuel scarcity and high prices that we will choose to become less energy efficient. Food, Fuel and Fertilizer are the Holy Trinity. Like Oxygen, Fuel and Flame are to Fire. They are not independent of one another.

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'H')uman labor cannot compete with a tractor.

[wisconsin_cur]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'H')uman labor cannot compete with a tractor.

[MrBill]

You're talking about petroleum and I am talking about bio-fuels such as ethanol and bio-diesel. I am not talking about supplying all the transport fuel needed to support the economy's current infrastructure. I am talking about the bio-fuel needed to run a tractor for the explicit purpose of growing food. I can also foresee certain scenarios where food will consume not 6-8% of our incomes, but 33-50% of our incomes with less variety, less fresh fruit and produce and/or less meat. This will result in much less non-discretionary disposable income and most likely falling living standards for many. Basic goods such as food, fuel, clothing and shelter will take a larger percentage of our total income leaving less for all other purchases large and small.

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'H')uman labor cannot compete with a tractor.