[UncoveringTruths]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'I') don't have anything to really add except my sentiments having watched this evolve since 2004 also. Back then, the MSM/optimist virtually completely denied that Cantarall was even going into decline. It was such a shock to most pundits, like the Lynch crowd, when Cantarell was admittedly in decline. Then, the infamous insider report that it would decline at anywhere from 5%-40%, but everyone believed about 5%. The 40% scenario, like the failure of the fannie mae and freddie was so horrible that it wasn't really even discussed as a possibility. Well, we're there. Just like the Yibel field, most unfortunate. Maybe the world can do without this field, but Mexico cannot. It will create a crisis on our border beyond what anyone anticipates right now.

[eastbay]

One of the factors that made it relatively easy for illegal Mexicans to move beyond the border areas was, as we all know, the magnetic draw of available jobs. That may not be the case in the coming years. Plus, remember it costs money to travel north; money they may not have as time passes. Remittances to family in Mexico are already dropping.

Sure, some may somehow make it into LA, Phoenix, Denver, Chicago, etc... but as long as illegal border crossing remains doable a new class of illegals is on the way and they'll become the majority as this crisis develops. This new class of illegals will probably be barely able to reach the border and when they do they'll be broke, hopelessly unemployed, and desperately hungry. It won't be anything like it has been.

An entirely new situation will unfold as the loss of oil revenue causes the Mexican budget and state to collapse. And it's going to occur quite soon, most likely within a year or two. Many, me included, were not long ago suggesting 2012 at the earliest... now many are saying next year at the soonest! Amazing how quickly this disaster is unfolding.

[UncoveringTruths]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ug. 6 (Bloomberg) -- In the Mexican town of Tarimbaro, construction has stopped on new homes, so sales at a hardware store are half last year's total. A butcher who slaughtered a head of cattle a day now slays two a week. And Rocio Rangel feeds her son and daughter bread and coffee for dinner.

Rural Mexican towns are suffering as money transfers from relatives working north of the border dry up, the result of a weak U.S. economy. Remittances equaled 2.7 percent of gross domestic product last year and are Mexico's second-biggest source of dollar flows after oil exports.

``My children need more than this, but we don't have anything,'' said Rangel, 36, whose husband hasn't sent funds home from Florida in nine months.

[eastbay]

Yes, the desperation is increasing already not only for the poor in Mexico but for the ones unable to secure employment in the US. As we all read in the media, many of those unable to find work in the US are seriously considering going back where they can at least find food and shelter. At last now they are. Wait and see what's coming!

And what we see today is occurring during a period of relative plenty. Wait until 2010, less than a year and a half from now, when Mexico becomes a net energy importer! Their food subsidy will end. Their foreign revenue will dry up. Returning to Mexico will no longer be a guarantee of food! Staying in the USA will no longer be a guarantee of food! This is going to unfold in a way we can only guess, but my guess is that it's going to be a humanitarian disaster felt most by those living near the border, but everyone will be adversely effected in one way or another.
Some far more than others.

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', ' ') This is going to unfold in a way we can only guess, but my guess is that it's going to be a humanitarian disaster felt most by those living near the border, but everyone will be adversely effected in one way or another.
Some far more than others.

[UncoveringTruths]

When conditions are not desirable or become undesirable then what would be the motivation to mass at the border?

Arid conditions of the desert southwest.



I just don't see starving desperate masses sticking around waiting for it to rain so they can all eat prickly pear.

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('UncoveringTruths', 'W')hen conditions are not desirable or become undesirable then what would be the motivation to mass at the border?

Arid conditions of the desert southwest.



I just don't see starving desperate masses sticking around waiting for it to rain so they can all eat prickly pear.

[Tanada]

Before we all get TOO carried away, is Mexico a net food importer or not? When all else fails and the gas pumps are too expensive any government will see to it the Farmers can keep farming because lack of food = revolution = TPTB losing power, and none of them want that to happen to themselves.

[TheDude]

Exactly how this will pan out I can't tell. Finding a breakdown of the national budget is beyond me, for one; government sites are purely in Spanish and I can't find an outside source. Where they will trim I'd like to know: military? Essential services? Cut government staff? Subsidies? Break up the country? Let the Zapatistas run the show in Chiapas? Take a cue from the USSR and Balkanize?

This link isn't working, but interesting headline nevertheless: Imports make up 50 % of gasoline sales in July , , Mexico news Up 10%.

[Jester]

Makes those detention centers KBR (Halliburton) got the contract to set up make sense...

"the federal government had awarded a $385 million contract for the construction of "temporary detention facilities." These would be used, the story said, in the event of an "immigration emergency."

Jamie Zuieback, an official with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), explained such an emergency like this: "If, for example, there were some sort of upheaval in another country that would cause mass migration, that's the type of situation that the contract would address."

http://www.unknownnews.org/camps.html
yes it's a propaganda type of site, but the information on the camps I quoted, is correct.

It makes perfect sense.

Knowing that Mexico's oil production would be heading into a crash, and the likely result being waves of Mexicans flooding to the USA to try to avoid starvation...

[ROCKMAN]

Tanada

I don't what the exact numbers are but the M gov't has been subsidizing flour (tortillas) ever since I began roaming it and out of there 35 years ago. I think it was back in the late 70's when the gov't tried to raise the controlled price of tortillas and there were riots including deaths. Fortunately, soon afterwards, they discovered Cantarrel Fld. As far as I know the gov't has provided little suppport for farmers over the years. Similarly, they've never provided public funds for higher (I think beyond 6th grade) education. Thus the bulk of the workforce is uneducated with few, if any, valued skills.

As far as the M. people revolting I'm not sur they really have that ability. And if they did take over the gov't what would they gain? The wealthy in M. long ago moved their monetary assests out of the country. With production declining I don't think that even 100% of that income could sustain the population very long if at all. I have a number of M. friends but they are the affluent and will never suffer. For the vast majority of the rest of the country it's difficult to imagine anything but a terrible and heart breaking future.

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '.') I have a number of M. friends but they are the affluent and will never suffer.

[ROCKMAN]

Roc,

The affluent Mexicans I know long ago hired the crafty and brutal to protect their interests. I even know where a few of the bodies are buried. Thirty years ago it was a rather unsettling reality. It's a world I long ago disassociated myself from. I doubt it will get any better.

p.s. Affluent Mexicans just love geologists....always want us to come down to ranch, have a good time.....and find them some more water.

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'R')oc,

The affluent Mexicans I know long ago hired the crafty and brutal to protect their interests. I even know where a few of the bodies are buried. Thirty years ago it was a rather unsettling reality. It's a world I long ago disassociated myself from. I doubt it will get any better.

p.s. Affluent Mexicans just love geologists....always want us to come down to ranch, have a good time.....and find them some more water.

[ROCKMAN]

Actually Roc, they're back and forth across the border all the time. Houston is THE medical center for all the affluent south of the Rio Bravo. This traffic is so heavy there are actually travel agents who specialize in this area. A big chunk of sales at our big Galleria Mall comes from those regions also. Even in Texas most don't have any idea about the existence of this "invisible" Mexican society. They're just more of those "damn Mexcans" wondering around our town.

Yep...business as usual for them and it will never change. Many already have their “get away’ homes in places like Costa Rica (my personal retirement fantasy spot). Money doesn't necessarily buy happiness but it does a good job of buying stability. Hell...if things get bad enough here I may have to shed some of my morality and go be a "pet" geologist for some jefe.

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '
')
Yep...business as usual for them and it will never change.

[ROCKMAN]

I still don't think you get the big picture roc. Some of these folks own some of the tankers bringing gasoline into Mexico. Things will have to get pretty bad before the golden rule stops working IMO.

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I') still don't think you get the big picture roc. Some of these folks own some of the tankers bringing gasoline into Mexico. Things will have to get pretty bad before the golden rule stops working IMO.

[UncoveringTruths]

Rockman,

A while back someone proposed that Cantarell could catstrophically collapse to near zero in short order because of its geology and recovery methods. Something about the bottom dropping out or reaching its cap. Do you have any ideas on this?

[ROCKMAN]

roc,

The folks I'm talking about don't get their fuel from a gas station. They get it from their own 50,000 gal underground storage. And their lights don't flicker because their private power plants don't go down. And they wouldn't miss a meal because their private air force can load up in Houston and zip back down to the hacienda.

Now if you're talking about the end of life on earth as we know it, that's one thing. Then it's just mano a mano. I'm not. I was just talking about a portion of the world that can comfortably prosper in a world of $1000 oil. Perhaps we got off track to each others point...sorry about that. I'm not sure what the number is these days but the folks I've been referring to are the members of a 100 or so extended families that comprise the real power structure in Mexico. The average Mexican citizen I think you're referring to is commonly referred to by them as "stray dogs". I forget the exact little colloquial term they use.