[BrazilianPO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('newman1979', 'T')he April report also shows exports to the US down to under 1.2 m/b/d. The rapid fall of over 450,000 b/d from April 06 continues the trend of lower crude production, increased domestic oil consumption and decreasing exports to the US. The April numbers confirm once again that Mexico is on target to be a net zero exporter to the US in four years.

[DantesPeak]

This article should serve as reminder that Mexico is importing more and more gasoline. Most likely that trend will continue. As you might remember, Mexico's refineries have suffered from fires and other problems, and pipelines have become terrorist targets.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')exico Ends 1Q Without Oil Windfall On Gasoline Imports

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
May 27, 2008 2:51 p.m.

MEXICO CITY (Dow Jones)--Increased volumes of gasoline imports and higher import prices for the fuel, along with below-estimate crude export volumes, mean the Mexican government ended the first quarter without windfall oil income despite record crude prices, Finance Ministry officials said Tuesday.

State oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, exported 1.5 million barrels a day of crude oil at close to $80 a barrel in the first quarter, against an initial budget estimate of 1.68 million barrels a day at $49 a barrel.

A stronger peso against the dollar and lower overall production at Pemex also offset income from oil in the period, Finance Ministry economist Miguel Messmacher said in a meeting with reporters.

Pemex imported 341,000 barrels a day of gasoline in the first quarter, which Messmacher said was 6% above the estimate, while prices were 31% higher than anticipated.

Since Pemex sells gasoline in the domestic market at a price set by the Finance Ministry, when the price is below the cost of imported gasoline Pemex receives a tax credit to compensate for the difference.

The excise tax on gasoline becomes a negative tax and acts like a subsidy, said Deputy Finance Minister Alejandro Werner.

President Felipe Calderon said Sunday that the cost to the government of maintaining prices of gasoline, diesel and propane gas while international energy prices are soaring will be about 200 billion pesos ($19.2 billion) this year, four times what it was last year.

The decision to keep fuel prices steady was part of a series of measures that Calderon unveiled Sunday to keep rising food prices under wraps.

[memmel]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'T')his article should serve as reminder that Mexico is importing more and more gasoline. Most likely that trend will continue. As you might remember, Mexico's refineries have suffered from fires and other problems, and pipelines have become terrorist targets.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')exico Ends 1Q Without Oil Windfall On Gasoline Imports

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
May 27, 2008 2:51 p.m.

MEXICO CITY (Dow Jones)--Increased volumes of gasoline imports and higher import prices for the fuel, along with below-estimate crude export volumes, mean the Mexican government ended the first quarter without windfall oil income despite record crude prices, Finance Ministry officials said Tuesday.

State oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, exported 1.5 million barrels a day of crude oil at close to $80 a barrel in the first quarter, against an initial budget estimate of 1.68 million barrels a day at $49 a barrel.

A stronger peso against the dollar and lower overall production at Pemex also offset income from oil in the period, Finance Ministry economist Miguel Messmacher said in a meeting with reporters.

Pemex imported 341,000 barrels a day of gasoline in the first quarter, which Messmacher said was 6% above the estimate, while prices were 31% higher than anticipated.

Since Pemex sells gasoline in the domestic market at a price set by the Finance Ministry, when the price is below the cost of imported gasoline Pemex receives a tax credit to compensate for the difference.

The excise tax on gasoline becomes a negative tax and acts like a subsidy, said Deputy Finance Minister Alejandro Werner.

President Felipe Calderon said Sunday that the cost to the government of maintaining prices of gasoline, diesel and propane gas while international energy prices are soaring will be about 200 billion pesos ($19.2 billion) this year, four times what it was last year.

The decision to keep fuel prices steady was part of a series of measures that Calderon unveiled Sunday to keep rising food prices under wraps.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('memmel', 'H')ow long before we start seeing significant smuggling of gasoline and diesel into the US from Mexico ?

I think its starting to look pretty tempting.

[fluffy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mechler', 'N')o, it does makes sense - Mexico will reduce exports to the US until 2010, at which point the amount exported will be zero. Further reductions will then be halted...

[newman1979]

Pemex has released it's May 08 numbers today. Crude oil production at 2,798 m/b/d is down 312,000 b/d from May 07. Exports to the US were 1,207 m/b/d, down 309,000 b/d from May 07. On a sequential basis, production was up a few thousand barrels a day over April 08. But exports were off two thousand barrels a day overall, although exports to the US were up a little.

[newman1979]

Pemex has just released July 08 data. Crude oil production was 2,782 m/b/d in July down from 3,166 m/b/d in July 07. Crude oil exports to the U.S. were 1,235 m/b/d down from 1,610 in July 07. Mexico's gasoline imports were 404.5 thousand barrels a day principally from the U.S.

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('newman1979', 'P')emex has just released July 08 data. Crude oil production was 2,782 m/b/d in July down from 3,166 m/b/d in July 07.

[eastbay]

It means they join import land in about a year and a half instead of 8 to 10 years like the 'experts' [s]have been lying[/s] are saying. It means no more budget revenue. No more corn subsidy. Relative stability replaced by chaos. And that's the optimistic scenario.


Oh, let me edit to say, excellent work posting this newman1979! Much appreciated!

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('newman1979', 'P')emex has just released July 08 data. Crude oil production was 2,782 m/b/d in July down from 3,166 m/b/d in July 07. Crude oil exports to the U.S. were 1,235 m/b/d down from 1,610 in July 07. Mexico's gasoline imports were 404.5 thousand barrels a day principally from the U.S.

[UncoveringTruths]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('newman1979', 'P')emex has just released July 08 data. Crude oil production was 2,782 m/b/d in July down from 3,166 m/b/d in July 07. Crude oil exports to the U.S. were 1,235 m/b/d down from 1,610 in July 07. Mexico's gasoline imports were 404.5 thousand barrels a day principally from the U.S.

[newman1979]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=news

Pemex also reported that output at Cantarell fell 36% to 973,688 barrels a day. As late as 2006, Cantarell was the second largest oilfield in the world. In as much as the decline rate is startling, Mexico's subsidizing gasoline needs to be reexamined as an abrupt removal of this subsidy in 2 years could be catastrophic.

[shortonoil]

eastbay said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t means they join import land in about a year and a half instead of 8 to 10 years like the 'experts' have been lying are saying. It means no more budget revenue. No more corn subsidy. Relative stability replaced by chaos. And that's the optimistic scenario.

[TheDude]

I don't know why more attention isn't paid to the situation in Mexico. For US citizens I think it's much more pressing than trying to peer through the veil of KSA production.

[Tanada]

Heaven help us I forsee 120 million desperate Mexican citizens attempting to move north within the next three years.

I don't hate them, but I can't afford to support them either.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orld News Connection

July 17, 2008

Mexico: Energy Expert David Shields Analyzes Pemex's 'Somber' Outlook

Commentary by energy expert David Shields : What Reform?


The outlook for Mexican Petroleum (Pemex) is becoming more somber with every passing day. On the one hand, the decline of Cantarell andthe drop in crude oil production and exports have accelerated. On the other hand, political conditions are not favorable for oil reform.

During June, crude oil production at Cantarell dropped by57,000 barrels per day (b/d) compared to May, for a cumulative decline of277,000 b/d in the first half of 2008, in addition to a drop of almost 1 million b/d in the previous three years. Now the scenario expected by the end of this year is that crude oil production will be close to 2.6 million b/d and exports will be nearly 1 million b/d, levels that would take us back to theyear 1990 in production and 1979 in exports. Pemex has now entered a new eraof low production, depletion of oil fields, and failure to incorporate provenreserves. So, for 2009 we will have to set volume estimates that are much lower than those in the federal budget for this year.

If not for the incredible rise in oil prices ($132 per barrel for the Mexican blend today, compared to the $49 budgeted as the averageprice for this year), we would have already had to stop considering oil to bethe pillar of the public finances and of "sovereignty." We must not forget that the extra funds from crude oil exports are being used almost entirely to pay for imports and gasoline subsidies.

The incentive contracts proposed by President Calderon areaimed at that improvement and we would just need to define and/or refine the details of the plan, ensuring adequate controls and its full legality. This contracting plan must be viewed as the minimum indispensable element of thereform, because, without it, the oil reform will not make sense and it will notbe long before we have to proceed to a painful downsizing of production andlabor at Pemex, with negative economic and social consequences.

[shortonoil]

Danteseak quoted:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e must not forgetthat the extra funds from crude oil exports are being used almost entirely topay for imports and gasoline subsidies.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]Danteseak quoted:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e must not forgetthat the extra funds from crude oil exports are being used almost entirely topay for imports and gasoline subsidies.

[seahorse]

I don't have anything to really add except my sentiments having watched this evolve since 2004 also. Back then, the MSM/optimist virtually completely denied that Cantarall was even going into decline. It was such a shock to most pundits, like the Lynch crowd, when Cantarell was admittedly in decline. Then, the infamous insider report that it would decline at anywhere from 5%-40%, but everyone believed about 5%. The 40% scenario, like the failure of the fannie mae and freddie was so horrible that it wasn't really even discussed as a possibility. Well, we're there. Just like the Yibel field, most unfortunate. Maybe the world can do without this field, but Mexico cannot. It will create a crisis on our border beyond what anyone anticipates right now.

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'I') don't have anything to really add except my sentiments having watched this evolve since 2004 also. Back then, the MSM/optimist virtually completely denied that Cantarall was even going into decline. It was such a shock to most pundits, like the Lynch crowd, when Cantarell was admittedly in decline. Then, the infamous insider report that it would decline at anywhere from 5%-40%, but everyone believed about 5%. The 40% scenario, like the failure of the fannie mae and freddie was so horrible that it wasn't really even discussed as a possibility. Well, we're there. Just like the Yibel field, most unfortunate. Maybe the world can do without this field, but Mexico cannot. It will create a crisis on our border beyond what anyone anticipates right now.