[joeltrout]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'J')oel,

That's exactly the game plan I'm thinking about. For months one of my oil seesawed up and down 10% or so evry coule of weeks until this last big drop. With cheap and easy online trading you can collect those small gains and reinvest. I didn't calc what I would have made over those several months but it would have easily been 20% per annum. I hoping it's ready to start that cycle again.

[ROCKMAN]

So true about the TAXMAN joel. That's why I was glad to see my oils drop. Worse comes to worse they'll still be up in a year or so. And you're right: the instability in the market over oil is our best friend. It almost guarentees good swings every few months: a new war...a new hurricane...a new big discovery hitting the head lines. anything that temporarially pushes the market either way.

I have that book (Profit from the Peak) but haven't gotten around to reading it. Might be the time now.

[dohboi]

Few here pretend they know what oil will do day to day, week to week, or even month to month. Most have long predicted long term trend toward increasing prices and, crucially for this discussion, increasing volatility.

Many new to the topic focus only on the former and forget the latter. Things are turning out just as most predicted--overall higher prices year-to-year on average, with much and ever increasing volatility in between.

If you want to try to make money on that in-between volatility, you've got to take your lumps. Catching the lows at their lowest has been compared to trying to catch a falling knife. If you get it nice, it's fine. Get it wrong, and you can get badly cut.

That's one of many reasons I don't do any short term trading in this stuff.

[Twilight]

I do not care much what oil prices do from one month to another. I do not speculate on them and I do not use the stuff for transport or heating, so I have lost nothing. Ask those who do how they liked that bill.

Peak oil itself is about much more than price. Availability, product mix, net energy, export flows, trade deficits, and so on. Also, $100 oil is less affordable than $140 oil once the latter eliminates your job. What economic activity will the future support and are you a part of it? That is the question. This is a long term game.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '[')url=http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121866647827738567.html?mod=ba_mp_view]Oil Seen Dropping Under $90 by Year End[/url]
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barron's', ' ')First Global
OIL AT $30-$50 A BARREL? We don't know about you, but this wouldn't surprise us at all.
Our Quant side flagged the move in crude oil prices on May 30. They were, as nearly always, right on the money. And now it's time for the data crunchers like us to get into action. It is our firm belief that crude oil represents a true bubble. The tests of a true bubble are that it should have little connection with fundamental data; that the bubble's very existence should create ample nonsensical stories as to why the bubble is for ..

[Twilight]

I disagree with the reserves and exploration angle, but demand destruction in the West outrunning developing world demand growth for a few years, that I can believe. I just see it for the false comfort that it is without substantial new reserves entering the picture. Unfortunately the prevailing view will be to buy the whole story, waste time acting triumphant and complacent, then experience a surprise. I really get the feeling I can see this mistake a year before people make it and five years before they realise that is what it was.

[emersonbiggins]

Well, according to Barron's, the world really does run on zeroes and ones, and not on that black shiat in the ground. Amazing hubris and pablum, given that oil has yet to give back the gains made up until early this year.

[joeltrout]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', ' ')I really get the feeling I can see this mistake a year before people make it and five years before they realise that is what it was.

[dohboi]

Twilight has my nomination for quote of the month:

"$100 oil is less affordable than $140 oil once the latter eliminates your job."

[rockdoc123]

I believe the current floor price will be controlled by OPEC. The oil traders follow herd mentality and that herd has decided to run for shelter most recently. They need a reason to see a bottom and the fact the Georgia issue which is tangible and does have an effect on oil shipments hasn´t stopped the decline is telling when we think that just rumors have driven the price much higer in the not so distant past (Iran war etc). I read somewhere today the belief is Opec will step in at $90, I think they will start making noise around $105 and then will actually limit production at around $95. Remember that costs have not been declining in lockstep with the price so we are going to very quickly reach the marginal return limit at which point activity will be seriously curtailed. To my mind this will limit the downside as well.
For all those who thought speculation had nothing to do with the current price of oil......shame on you.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', 'B')esides physical preps what are you doing to profit from that. It seems like a huge opportunity if you really believe that.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', ' ')Just because a lot of fingers are being poked into the holes of the dike, doesn't mean the dike is not on track to completely collapse.

[shortonoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'O')bviously its because of the massive new supplies being found. Or the huge increases in production... Rolling Eyes/sarcasm

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I') think folks are forgetting we've been here before. The only difference is the swings are larger due to the level of the price. Do not pay attention to the man behind the curtain.

[LGW]

The prices might have dropped temporarily. However, 321Energy is currently doing the right thing and preparing for The Real Deal!



$900 oil tomorrow!

DOOM!

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', 'A')re we completely discredited now?

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '[')url=http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121866647827738567.html?mod=ba_mp_view]Oil Seen Dropping Under $90 by Year End[/url]
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barron's', ' ')First Global OIL AT $30-$50 A BARREL? We don't know about you, but this wouldn't surprise us at all. Anyone got a subscription?)

[Buggy]

I started haunting this place in May. I went through all the phases. No, I did not invest. I did sell. I am debt free, except for the evil house payment. What needs to stop is the crying wolf. Four or five mega-doomers around here are causing a lot of trouble. Kinda like when we were in school, in a class of a hundred, it only takes one idiot to ruin it for the rest. We have absolutely no idea how much oil is left. None. In these threads I have seen a plethera of charts and diagrams. Very little agreement can be found, among the believers! That doesn't bode well for the skeptic. All we know is that oil is finite, and we are not prepared for peak oil, whenever it happens. One fact you can count on though, the human race will survive. Always have. We've been through worse. A lot worse. Don't get me wrong, I am one of those who want PO to happen. Yes, that's right. Bring it on. I am completely disgusted by the fat, bloated, sweat pants wearing, wal-mart shopping, suv driving bottom dwellers in America. I am done with porked out, bloated, loud mouthed wenchbags hollering at their obese piglets in shopping lines. I long for an era where there are more good looking women than fat, nasty and smelly. Let the die off begin. Thin the herd. I will not step foot in a Golden Corral because the absolute disgust I feel by the sows feeding at the troughs. The day when grotesque, lard sucking good ol' boys in their oily rotted out pick-ups with gun racks and rebel flags are gone is a day I will praise peak oil. And if I don't survive, oh well. The tragedy in these days of an oil addicted world is not in dying, it's in living. I'm done now.

[newman1979]

What is the price of a commodity when it becomes strategic? World events move fast when supply and demand are closely balanced. Commodities also have seasonal patterns, and sometimes in a political season even oil companies take hits for "the team". Hurricanes, wars, insurgent attacks, and OPEC meetings can effect supply. Demand at $140 may be less than demand at $113 or the dollar at 1.58 vs, 1.46. Recessions do reduce demand and even supply in some cases. Conventional crude oil world peaked in 2005 as has the highest grade of crude, light sweet, if tar sand production is removed from being considered conventional at this time. World exports of crude oil are also in decline since 2005. Governments can stimulate demand for oil with subsidies, money supply, or deficit financing. Government can also lower demand with a variety of policies. Oil and gasoline are relatively inelastic and, like nicotine, it is difficult to stop using,in fact, to many, it is down right UN American to use less.
In such as important a commodity as oil there are many variables and, with traders, oil never moves in a straight line, but new highs can generally be expected over time with higher lows every year.IMO

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buggy', 'I') am completely disgusted by the fat, bloated, sweat pants wearing, wal-mart shopping, suv driving bottom dwellers in America. I am done with porked out, bloated, loud mouthed wenchbags hollering at their obese piglets in shopping lines. I long for an era where there are more good looking women than fat, nasty and smelly. Let the die off begin.