[PhilBiker]

from www.nrdc.org:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')rctic National Wildlife Refuge: A Wilderness Worth Far More Than Oil
If oil-drilling rigs, roads and pipelines are spread across this great American landscape, the only winners will be multinational oil companies.

[Jack]

As a resource consumer who is not a member of the NRDC or the Sierra Club...I'm not sure it's wise to drill ANWR.

If we believe that peak oil is real, then there will be a decline in supply. That decline will be substantial. Drilling ANWR now will tend to encourage consumption by keeping prices low - and hence, one of the final portions of our energy legacy will be consumed all too quickly.

Why not let demand be destroyed somewhat, then use ANWR to extend supply for more time at a lower demand level? That might be 25 years hence, when it would really make a positive difference.

Even if we assume that the inventors can solve the energy problem, they need time. Drilling ANWR now might deprive them of it.

[Trab]

Even if they do drill in ANWR, I thought that the oil from there won't hit the market for another 10 years or so? If that's the case, it's not going to effect the PO scenario, other than to maybe provide a small bump in the downward curve.

This is all based on politicians playing C.Y.A. to avoid getting hammered in the next election cycle.

[PhilBiker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ven if they do drill in ANWR, I thought that the oil from there won't hit the market for another 10 years or so?

[PhilBiker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy not let demand be destroyed somewhat, then use ANWR to extend supply for more time at a lower demand level? That might be 25 years hence, when it would really make a positive difference.

[PhilBiker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's thinking such as this ^ that allowed the last few trees on Easter Island to be cut down. Where does one draw the line Phil?

[nero]

I'm sure the Easter Islanders were very aware of how valuable the timber was in the end. We are aware and we aren't able to do anything about it. This news from the front section:

America blocks forest protection plan

could have been written on Easter Island before the collapse. It is once again the tragedy of the commons. I imagine there was loads of 'illegal harvesting' (ie stealing) going on. The various tribes probably couldn't come to a sensible agreement because noone trusted the others to keep their word. Maybe they even had an "Eastrer Island Trade Organization" (EITO) that demanded they keep their borders open to trade between the tribes and to not descriminate against the product based on the environmental or labour practices of the exporting tribe.

[PhilBiker]

Damn nero there I was all hopeful again and you had to kick me back into reality with observations on human nature and the tragedy of the commons.

[nero]

One piece of evidence for the existence of the EITO is that they shared the resources of the island. A prime example is that the statues had to cross several tribal boundaries to go from the quarry to the tribe's ahu.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PhilBiker', 'D')amn nero there I was all hopeful again and you had to kick me back into reality with observations on human nature and the tragedy of the commons.

[PhilBiker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')e does make a good point, doesn't he?

[PhilBiker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is exactly because we are so dependant on this stuff that we have a problem. We, like the Easter Islanders, are consuming our resourses foolishly. When we reach a point where we *have* to conserve, like you said, it will be too late. No rules, no laws, nothing will get in the way of people trying to feed themselves.

I don't think we're quite at the point. There's still quite a bit of waste in our system. Oil could last for quite a bit of time if all the world used the same oil/person as people in third world countries. Will we do this? Nope, even with all our technology, we still have the behavior of Easter Islanders.

[bart]

As long as the US has its current attitudes and current administration, drilling in ANWR is counter-productive.

It's the addict selling one more piece of furniture to get a fix.

People aware of PO shouldn't let themselves be suckered into being co-dependents.

[PhilBiker]

That all may be true, but you're missing my point entirely.

The people at the NRDC are not advocating a powerdown. They want to be able to both keep our current lifestyle and not drill in places like ANWR. From their website:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]A Responsible Path to Energy Security

The solution to America's energy problems will be found in American ingenuity, not more oil. Only by reducing our reliance on oil -- foreign and domestic -- and investing in cleaner, renewable forms of power will our country achieve true energy security. The good news is that we already have many of the tools we need to accomplish this. For example, Detroit has the technology right now to produce high-performance hybrid cars, trucks and SUVs; if America made the transition to these more efficient vehicles, far more oil would be saved than the Arctic Refuge is likely to produce. Doesn't that make far more sense than selling out our natural heritage and exploiting one of our true wilderness gems?

[EnviroEngr]

We are in agreement here, PB.

A close examination of all the (USA based) enviro groups leads me and several others I know to the conclusion that they are functioning as if they were pieces being moved around on the public relations board by the Establishment -- red herrings, as it were; or greenwashing fronts.

Whatever the case may be, you need to 'follow the money' to get a real good sense of what they are actually doing versus what they say they are doing. I'm not finding these groups to be as lily-white and squeaky-clean as their avowals would have me believe.

They could very well be operating as a mechanism for siphoning off resources that could otherwise be used for sensible policy making and research; wastage of the worst sort.

[zceb90]

According to Roscoe Bartlett's presentation to Congress Peak Oil Presentation in the US Congress EUR in ANWR may well be less than half that of Prudhoe Bay. Given the latter's EUR is 13 Gbbls this would point to 6 to 7 Gbbls i.e. just under 12 months' current US consumption.

As far as the big picture is concerned ANWR potential will be too small to make a difference, at best it will slow down the rate of US decline a little. Even so I'd expect US authorities to authorize development at some point given that the ERoEI will be higher than that of the other expanding N American oil source - Athabasca tar sands.

[FireJack]

There is a good chance in the future that the american government in power will promise to do anything and everything to allow americans to keep their way of life. Once oil starts depleting I bet the country may go black with soot from coil burning as all the trees are cut down for heat. It won't last long though.

[bart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PhilBiker', 'T')he people at the NRDC are not advocating a powerdown. They want to be able to both keep our current lifestyle and not drill in places like ANWR. ....they want us to build hybrids and build out alternative energy sources so we can go on consuming as much as we want,

[EnviroEngr]

Agreed.

[PhilBiker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut we've got to keep this in perspective. Things will be changing. Remember when you found out about Peak Oil? Hadn't you been clueless like the NRDC? Didn't it take a while for the reality of PO to sink in?