wisconsin_cur,
I think the plateau in food production will last about as long as the means to perpetuate the Green Revolution. That is, I expect fertilizer use to decline from cost and availability before the soil depletion takes hold as the major effect. Then, the downslope of "Peak Food" will be steeper than the upslope was due to soil depletion, along with climate change, and lack of fertilizers.
I think we are seeing the leading edge of that in the rice growing areas now. Just my gut feeling, but I'd bet the farm on it.
PeakOil is You
The Spreading Global Food Crisis Thread pt 2 (merged)
Re: The Spreading World Food Crisis (2)
by lorenzo » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 07:01:23
Interesting attempt to find parallels between hydrocarbon depletion and agricultural resource depletion (water, soil nutrients, soil structure, etc...).
I think the parallels are valid. E.g. Hydrocarbons took millions of years to form. Soils did so too. The global decline of SOM in soils is staggering.
But I would add a few differences:
1. Nutrient cycling in the biosphere is basically a closed system and the cycles are relatively short. (Whereas there is no "oil" or "coal" cycle, or if there is one, it takes extremely long time-scales). We do put in external nutrients, but these are nowhere near depletion.
2. In contrast with Peak Oil, we haven't reached "Peak Land" or "Peak Water" anywhere near.
3. There are environmentally smart ways to restore soil health and the nutrient balance (e.g. working with nitrogen-fixing crops, amending soils with biochar, etc...)
4. There are vast agricultural "provinces" that haven't been "explored" or "exploited" yet - e.g. 95% of all African farmers use no modern inputs. None of these inputs are anywhere near depletion (some never will out and can be made entirely from renewable energy, such as nitrogenous fertilizers). Meat production is still very extensive today (grazing animals that take up hundreds of millions of hectares of land); there's enormous room for intensive production, which would free up gigantic quantities of land.
5. Cynical as it may sound: climate change will open up vast new areas for cultivation. (Potatoes already growing back in Greenland nowadays).
6. Peak Oil will happen *before* we reach our demographic maximum (9 billion people by 2050); there will never be "Peak Food" because the resources stretch enough forward in time. With today's techniques, we can produce food for an estimated 40 billion people. Population levels plateau at 9 billion in 2050/2075 for a few decades, after which they decline.
7. Most importantly: scientific advances allow us to intervene directly in the productive mechanisms of biology - i.e. we can design crops which tolerate drought, pests, diseases. So we can influence their productive capacity and adapt them to environmental circumstances. This can't be said of oil, which just sits there in the ground.
The race is on to influence the photosynthetic efficiency of crops. If the scientists do what they say can be done (boosting photosynthetic efficiency from 0.7 to its near-theoretical maximum: 3%), then we're in a whole new ball game.
Interesting discussion in any case.
I think the parallels are valid. E.g. Hydrocarbons took millions of years to form. Soils did so too. The global decline of SOM in soils is staggering.
But I would add a few differences:
1. Nutrient cycling in the biosphere is basically a closed system and the cycles are relatively short. (Whereas there is no "oil" or "coal" cycle, or if there is one, it takes extremely long time-scales). We do put in external nutrients, but these are nowhere near depletion.
2. In contrast with Peak Oil, we haven't reached "Peak Land" or "Peak Water" anywhere near.
3. There are environmentally smart ways to restore soil health and the nutrient balance (e.g. working with nitrogen-fixing crops, amending soils with biochar, etc...)
4. There are vast agricultural "provinces" that haven't been "explored" or "exploited" yet - e.g. 95% of all African farmers use no modern inputs. None of these inputs are anywhere near depletion (some never will out and can be made entirely from renewable energy, such as nitrogenous fertilizers). Meat production is still very extensive today (grazing animals that take up hundreds of millions of hectares of land); there's enormous room for intensive production, which would free up gigantic quantities of land.
5. Cynical as it may sound: climate change will open up vast new areas for cultivation. (Potatoes already growing back in Greenland nowadays).
6. Peak Oil will happen *before* we reach our demographic maximum (9 billion people by 2050); there will never be "Peak Food" because the resources stretch enough forward in time. With today's techniques, we can produce food for an estimated 40 billion people. Population levels plateau at 9 billion in 2050/2075 for a few decades, after which they decline.
7. Most importantly: scientific advances allow us to intervene directly in the productive mechanisms of biology - i.e. we can design crops which tolerate drought, pests, diseases. So we can influence their productive capacity and adapt them to environmental circumstances. This can't be said of oil, which just sits there in the ground.
The race is on to influence the photosynthetic efficiency of crops. If the scientists do what they say can be done (boosting photosynthetic efficiency from 0.7 to its near-theoretical maximum: 3%), then we're in a whole new ball game.
Interesting discussion in any case.
The Beginning is Near!
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Re: The Spreading World Food Crisis (2)
by Troyboy1208 » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 11:03:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'I')nteresting attempt to find parallels between hydrocarbon depletion and agricultural resource depletion (water, soil nutrients, soil structure, etc...). I think the parallels are valid. E.g. Hydrocarbons took millions of years to form. Soils did so too. The global decline of SOM in soils is staggering.
But I would add a few differences: -snip- Interesting discussion in any case.
But I would add a few differences: -snip- Interesting discussion in any case.
I do not necessarily agree with everything, however the theme seems logical. I am a Lacto-ovo vegetarian and really feel that if people gave up half the animal meat they eat it would go a long way. You only pass 10% of the energy from one level of the food chain to the next. So If you can cut out some of those levels the saving is massive
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Re: The Spreading World Food Crisis (2)
by DefiledEngine » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 12:28:55
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '5'). Cynical as it may sound: climate change will open up vast new areas for cultivation. (Potatoes already growing back in Greenland nowadays).
That argument goes both ways, climate change is shutting down many now well used areas for food production.
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Re: The Spreading World Food Crisis (2)
by RedStateGreen » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 14:30:13
The only rationale I can see for using grain in feeding animals like cows, chickens, and pigs, which can eat many other things, is that of profit. Grain makes those animals weigh more, thereby bringing more money at market.
Which is fine in a world with cheap grain and everyone fed, but we've moved way out of that paradigm. Instead of looking at CAFO's and seeing what a horror that has turned out to be, other countries are imitating it, thinking it's "modern", I guess. Sort of like "let's starve ourselves so we can be cool like everyone else".
Which is fine in a world with cheap grain and everyone fed, but we've moved way out of that paradigm. Instead of looking at CAFO's and seeing what a horror that has turned out to be, other countries are imitating it, thinking it's "modern", I guess. Sort of like "let's starve ourselves so we can be cool like everyone else".
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '&')quot;Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"
First thing to ask: Cui bono?
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Re: The Spreading World Food Crisis (2)
by vtsnowedin » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 14:44:59
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '5'). Cynical as it may sound: climate change will open up vast new areas for cultivation. (Potatoes already growing back in Greenland nowadays). Interesting discussion in any case.
Interesting indeed. As potatoes were unknown in europe before 1492 coming from Peru via the Conquistadors, if they are growing in Greenland now it must be for the first time.
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