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economic and environmental policies you would like to see...

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: economic and environmental policies you would like to se

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Fri 01 Aug 2008, 10:37:58

The last serious candidate to talk about the fiscal problems facing this country was Ross Perot in '96...it's been 12 years since anyone has talked about a real plan to pay back the national debt.

Al Gore gets a some credit in my book for talking about the need to protect social security from Congress.

Every year Congress borrows every penny from the SS surplus and adds another mountain of IOUs into the "trust fund".

But the IOUs must be paid back by the American Taxpayer.

The trust fund is worse than empty. The fund actually consists of 1.9 trillion dollars in liabilities, NOT assets.

As the SS surplus declines, taxes will have to go up to make up the lost revenue. As the annual surplus turns into a deficit, not only will we need to replace the surplus with other taxes but we need to pay back the IOUs at the same time we're making payments to current recipients.

We're triple f_cked. :twisted:

I don't know the solution to the problem but I do know that status quo is not going to cut it.
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Re: economic and environmental policies you would like to se

Unread postby Byron100 » Fri 01 Aug 2008, 11:55:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlueGhostNo2', 'I') think a large part of western problems are caused by market distortions. These market distortions are actually a result of the market being too free. So in addition to Tylers points above about bringing externalities into the market place through tax...

In respects to markets being too free: anything which obtusifies the market should be removed for the good of society. I don't think we can tackle it directly but the practice of companies creating demands rather than creating a product shows just how warped our society has become.

This means if the relationship is not: 'entity A produces product X, entity B needs a product similar in type to X, B goes to the market and looking at honest information on these products choose product X which is best suited to their needs, legislation to protect the market place and change social mores be required.

This means:

No emotive advertising, it is already illegal to lie directly about products but it is O.K. to tell an emotive lie that a product will make you feel a certain way or give you a certain lifestyle.

No subsidies of products or proprietary lock ins. If you make a razor handle to sell below cost, you better publish the specs and let me make the razor blades.

No hard sells, if your business can't exist without forcing people to buy things on the spot society will exist quite happily without your business.


This does not require a large amount of new laws simply make it illegal to create a market distortion, publicize what types of activity are unacceptable then start prosecuting starting with the worst offenders. Society will rapidly adapt much as it is rare for people to murder at the moment it will be rare for market distortions to be carried out against society. This should be a crime for which neither limited liability nor 'following orders' is a defense.

Hopefully we can start to curb the excessive consumption after we've removed so many of the drives that push us towards is.

<bolding mine>

This is the kind of thing I've been preaching against long before this website ever came about...kudos to you for proposing this as part of an intelligently-written proposal. :-D

For the longest time, I've realized how damaging "emotive" marketing is to the consumer, as it encourages people to spend above and beyond what they need...that is just so wrong on so many levels. Personally, I actually have a phobia of sales people, as I just cannot handle the "hard sell"...so anyone that's serious about eliminating this curse of modern society...they're going to be seeing some real support from me. :-D

And the scam about the razor blades and printer ink...boy, I'd bring back the gallows to cure that problem, I really would. I think the word "proprietary" should be stricken from the English language altogether...as it's nothing but the word "SCAM" in disguise.

If I ever were to have kids (hypothetical situation only), I'd dedicate a huge portion of my child-rearing activities training my kids to: 1) despise all salespeople with a true passion, 2) learn to ignore all forms of advertising, and 3) never, ever buy anything to "impress"...only what you need and will serve essential purposes.

Sure wish more folks would think more like me...
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Re: economic and environmental policies you would like to se

Unread postby Vogelzang » Sun 03 Aug 2008, 11:04:27

Don't end the war on drugs.

Develop coal to liquids, oil shale, more offshore oil drilling (open up outer continental shelf everywhere), drill in ANWR and the artic.

Ignore Kyoto and don't pass any stupid global warming laws. Global warming is a hoax.
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Re: economic and environmental policies you would like to se

Unread postby Vogelzang » Sun 03 Aug 2008, 11:06:35

Onboard High-Tech Oil Rig, U.S. Answers to Rising Prices
Ever-increasing fossil fuel demand has companies going farther and digging deeper for oil than ever before. We visit America's most promising patch.
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science ... 55407.html

Note the part of the article that says:
Proponents of peak oil, a theory that says we're at, or near, the time when little new oil will be found, causing a rapid decline in petroleum production argue that the action in the gulf is nothing but the last desperate gasps of a dying way of life. Peter Jackson, a senior director monitoring oil industry activities at Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an independent think tank in Boston, disagrees. "The overall U.S. supply is gradually decreasing, but that rate of decline will be slowed by contributions from deepwater reserves in the whole Atlantic basin, from the gulf to Nigeria, Angola and Brazil." Jackson sees oil production reaching a plateau, rather than a sharp peak, but not for decades. "And that means we'll have time to mitigate and make some plans and legislate, and that's very different from saying there's going to be a peak in, say, 2010, followed by a precipitous decline."

And it's hard not to argue with a simple fact: Shell and other oil companies aren't spending billions of dollars without believing that it'll pay off for years to come. "We're putting all of our free cash into oil and gas development," says Russ Ford, vice president of development for Shell. "We believe hydro-carbons will be there for a very long time. Nothing is going to knock down oil."
----------------------------------
There's more than twice as much heavy oil as there is conventional oil.
http://www.slb.com/content/services/sol ... vy_oil.asp

http://heavyoilinfo.com/
----------------------------------
This is an optimistic article. Some are more pessimistic.

Natural gas reserves exceed projections, industry claims
http://www.poughkeepsiejournal.com/apps ... /807310334

The U.S. has enough natural gas resources to last up to 118 years, or 2,247 trillion cubic feet, said the study by Navigant Consulting for the American Clean Skies Foundation. That group is largely funded by natural gas companies.

The Potential Gas Committee, an independent research group, estimated in 2006 that the U.S. has an 82-year supply of natural gas.
-----------------------------------
Debunking the Hubbert Model
http://www.gasresources.net/Lynch(Hubbert-Deffeyes).htm
-----------------------------------
Oil Shale
http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/30/magazin ... /index.htm

Some in Congress are blocking it.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/06/news/ec ... /index.htm
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Re: economic and environmental policies you would like to se

Unread postby cube » Sun 03 Aug 2008, 11:59:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'w')hat would I do? --> nothing

The very moment I retire from my job as the world dictator, society will simply re-arrange things back the way it was before.
so what's the point?


Got Nepotism?
my ideas are too "extreme" for most people to handle.
I think the world would be a better place if subsidies for transportation was eliminated:
1) public transit - a bus ticket should be raised high enough to pay for the full operational and capital cost of running a bus. $2 ticket raised to $4 ?
2) freeways - an excise tax should be applied to gasoline to pay for full operational and capital cost of building a freeway $4 gallon raised to $6 ?
(note: gasoline taxes in the USA on average is $0.50 / gallon)

Advantages - no more paying income tax, sales tax, property taxes for transportation. It's all done through "user fees".
A gasoline tax is technically not a user fee but realistically the only people who buy gasoline are the ones who drive their car on the roads so it can be thought of as a user fee for having the privilege to drive on the roadways.

simply stated - if you want to play then you have to pay
Yes I know this where ALL the liberals protest and say, "That's going to hurt the poor the most!"
I say --> TOO BAD!
Where did society get this silly idea that EVERYBODY is entitled to travel whatever distance they want just because they feel like it?
Did the discovery of fossil fuels have something to do with this notion of entitlement? *rhetorical question*

PO == a socialist's worst nightmare :twisted:
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Re: economic and environmental policies you would like to se

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 04 Aug 2008, 00:26:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')Did the discovery of fossil fuels have something to do with this notion of entitlement? *rhetorical question*


Not so rhetorical. I think you can't underestimate the beneficial social impact that personal transportation (or just cheap long distance transportation) has had. It has allowed poor people to break out from the boundaries of their local surroundings, opening up a lot of opportunity. If we get to the point where the poor's entire universe shrinks down to the effective radius they can ride in an unassisted bike, they will be at a supreme disadvantage in life.
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Re: economic and environmental policies you would like to se

Unread postby gampy » Mon 04 Aug 2008, 04:15:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bruce2288', 'R')equire all welfare users to work a 40 hr week. Recycling trash, tutoring, picking up hyway trash,visiting shut ins, use your imagination. If you want the check you put in the time. Term limits. Balanced budget


I think I can come up with a better alternative than "work-fare".

Monthly submission of bank statements.
Trust me...people would find a job real quick if they had to provide a bank statement, and reliable, verifiable financial information every month in order to receive a cheque.

Assistance levels at a bare minimum. Just enough to provide rent in a rooming house, and 4 weeks of food. Have a house? Move. Live in a chi-chi apartment? Move. Have car payments? Walk.

Or get a fucking job.

McDonald's (or any food service business) is ALWAYS hiring.

Of course, people on disability would be....on disability assistance.
I am speaking of able bodied folk, here.

I have no problem with welfare, per se. I have had to avail myself of it a few times in my life.
It's wise to help the needy with tax dollars. It prevents further social ills, than to throw people under the bus.

But it needs to regulated more strictly, and compliance to these strict reporting rules would weed out a lot of lazy people milking the system. In my observations, "workfare" is not effective in getting people back into the workforce. A strong hand on their backs, with maybe assistance at job skills, and some tough love would do wonders.

But the bank statement thing, that's the ticket to getting the jerks who take advantage of the system off the roles. No bank account? Get one.
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Re: economic and environmental policies you would like to se

Unread postby cube » Mon 04 Aug 2008, 06:03:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '.')..
Not so rhetorical. I think you can't underestimate the beneficial social impact that personal transportation (or just cheap long distance transportation) has had. It has allowed poor people to break out from the boundaries of their local surroundings, opening up a lot of opportunity.
Let me guess you believe in what I call the "multiplier theory": if we spend $1 tax dollar on this government program then it will yield $3 in economic benefits for society.
It's my observation liberals often use that argument to defend their social programs. I disagree with that theory. I don't think it works.
With the exception of maintaining (security, property rights, and standards) government programs usually do nothing more than (Rob Peter to pay Paul).
There is no net gain to society with such programs mos6507.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'I')f we get to the point where the poor's entire universe shrinks down to the effective radius they can ride in an unassisted bike, they will be at a supreme disadvantage in life.
If that is the case then I guess it is the poor who will have most to lose from PO.
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Re: economic and environmental policies you would like to se

Unread postby nobodypanic » Mon 04 Aug 2008, 16:30:15

some of you don't seem to realize that there are people working full-time jobs that are still at or near poverty level and cannot make ends meet w/o help.
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Re: economic and environmental policies you would like to se

Unread postby nobodypanic » Mon 04 Aug 2008, 16:35:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', ' ')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'I')f we get to the point where the poor's entire universe shrinks down to the effective radius they can ride in an unassisted bike, they will be at a supreme disadvantage in life.
If that is the case then I guess it is the poor who will have most to lose from PO.

except that the middle class will shrink and shrink, pushed into poverty. so you'll have an entire class of people who know how to organize and manage and etc. that'll be very pissed off at the way things have turned out--in short you'll have a powder keg just waiting to blow, and once that happens, then wealth won't be the shield that it once was.
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Re: economic and environmental policies you would like to se

Unread postby cube » Mon 04 Aug 2008, 21:21:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', ' ')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'I')f we get to the point where the poor's entire universe shrinks down to the effective radius they can ride in an unassisted bike, they will be at a supreme disadvantage in life.
If that is the case then I guess it is the poor who will have most to lose from PO.

except that the middle class will shrink and shrink, pushed into poverty. so you'll have an entire class of people who know how to organize and manage and etc. that'll be very pissed off at the way things have turned out--in short you'll have a powder keg just waiting to blow, and once that happens, then wealth won't be the shield that it once was.
We're getting a bit off-topic here but there is a universal agreement (with the exception of the cornucopians whom BTW make up the minority on this website) there will be a lot less people around in a PO world. how much? 1 or 3 billion seems like a popular number.

I'm one of the "doomers" BTW so if you were trying to (shock and awe) me unfortunately it did not work. :)
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Re: economic and environmental policies you would like to se

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 05 Aug 2008, 03:28:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', 's')ome of you don't seem to realize that there are people working full-time jobs that are still at or near poverty level and cannot make ends meet w/o help.


That I suppose would be a good illustration of the limits to growth. But don't worry, economics is not a science, so economic pain is just an illusion of scarcity and not a reality.

The government can always confiscate non-existant wealth at the request of the majority of its citizens and re-distribute it accordingly. Then everything will be fair again. That's the main thing, right? Not growth. Not wealth. But fairness.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
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Re: economic and environmental policies you would like to se

Unread postby phaster » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 01:06:45

Rockman,

Sorry to disappoint, but I don't think I'd make or be interested in being a "benevolent dictator" because I have no delusions of grandeur, admit my mistakes, and know I don't have all the answers (which is one of the reasons I started this thread in the first place to try a different perspective on the problem).

In addition I have the unfortunate personality trait of possessing a strong moral compass that constantly reminds me there are absolute rights and wrongs, and ways that people should be treated, so I guess I would be a lousy malevolent dictator as well...

The lowest possible category "politician" is out as well since I abhor and do not care to improve my kiss butt social skills...



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I')'m on board!! After the revolution I'll nominate phaster for benevolent dictator and Mr. Bill as Sec of the Treasury.

Seriously, though, the reasons why, IMHO, almost none of these good ideas will come to pass very quickly, or ever, is the basis for how we’ve gotten into the current mess. To a degree I’m serious about a revolution….of sorts. But revolutions can be messy and unpredictable. I can only see the coming crisis as fodder for even more bad policy decisions in the short term. I’ve gained a lot of good insights since I’ve been hanging around here. And the net effect is to create even greater anxiety (thanks a lot, Mr Bill). But it is nice to connect with like minded folks even though we’ve just collectively moved just a little farther away from the lunatic fringe.
truth is,...

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Re: economic and environmental policies you would like to se

Unread postby CarlosFerreira » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 07:51:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', ' ')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'I')f we get to the point where the poor's entire universe shrinks down to the effective radius they can ride in an unassisted bike, they will be at a supreme disadvantage in life.
If that is the case then I guess it is the poor who will have most to lose from PO.

except that the middle class will shrink and shrink, pushed into poverty. so you'll have an entire class of people who know how to organize and manage and etc. that'll be very pissed off at the way things have turned out--in short you'll have a powder keg just waiting to blow, and once that happens, then wealth won't be the shield that it once was.


I agree. If this is correct, shouldn't we all be looking at measures that promote a more even distribution of capital throughout society?

I'm afraid of forcing this kind of distribution, because you would be draining capital needed to invest in offsetting devaluation of industrial machinery, in developing agriculture, in developing new tech to actually help during and post PO. The left, communist side of the political spectrum I have been talking to, are more vocal when it comes to "measures" they'd like to implement, but they forget this part of need to invest.

You can't, as MrBill says, just make up money and wealth out of nowhere. Scarcity is a fact, I'm forced to admit. Some (many) people will have to be worse off to allow for development. How many - and how much worse - is anyone's guess.
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Re: economic and environmental policies you would like to se

Unread postby Byron100 » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 10:25:41

Why do so many of you think that PO is a socialist's "worst nightmare"? I think PO is the *capitalist's* worst nightmare...as we're about to find out in a few short years.

As MrBill pointed out, politicians aren't going to run on a platform of pain. They're going to do whatever it takes to take from the "haves" and hand it over to the "havenots". In more prosperous times, there was enough wealth for all, so this hasn't really been a problem. We've had the surplus of the Social Security Trust Fund to hand out like candy for the past few decades, for instance.

But no longer. When the going gets tight, the folks in Washington are going to hear it loud and clear from the impoverished middle classes...trust me on this one. You folks gotta believe me when I say this...the "new poor" are going to demand that the Problem be fixed...and they're not going to stand for being lectured about the laws of economics or the idea that FF will never be cheap again. They're going to want the government to take from whoever who still has the wealth (doesn't matter if it's fake wealth or not...we're talking about J6pack here)...and hand it back to them in order to put things back "like they should be".

The rich have the most reasons to be afraid in the coming hard times, that I have no doubt. And course it's all going to be about cutting down the stalk that grows tallest, or hammering down the nail that sticks up, as opposed to trying to increase the overall wealth of society...the masses are going to want "justice" and at least the illusion of fairness. But like they say, life just isn't fair.

So forget about having a national policy to solve the FF dilemma. Forget the wonderful "owner's society" MrBill would so love to see (with apologies...hehe). Forget anything that might make a modicum of sense. No, this is going to be a hard and fast race to the bottom. To wish for anything else otherwise is just dreamin'... 8)
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Re: economic and environmental policies you would like to se

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 10:30:42

Yep, the man of reason in a time of crisis is like the guy who stands up to protest at a bank robbery. He gets the first bullet. End of story.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
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Re: economic and environmental policies you would like to se

Unread postby cube » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 10:56:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', 'W')hy do so many of you think that PO is a socialist's "worst nightmare"? I think PO is the *capitalist's* worst nightmare...as we're about to find out in a few short years.
I do not think it is a happy coincidence that economic "social welfare liberalism" came around the same time as the advent of fossil fuels:
1) food stamps for the poor
2) welfare check every month
3) subsidized energy
4) low income housing
5) .....
cheap energy made economic surplus possible.
and economic surplus made the middle class feel wealthy enough to pay taxes to literally give the poor a free handout. That will end.

PO == the end of "social welfare liberalism" --> socialist's "worst nightmare"
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Re: economic and environmental policies you would like to se

Unread postby Byron100 » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 11:55:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', 'W')hy do so many of you think that PO is a socialist's "worst nightmare"? I think PO is the *capitalist's* worst nightmare...as we're about to find out in a few short years.
I do not think it is a happy coincidence that economic "social welfare liberalism" came around the same time as the advent of fossil fuels:
1) food stamps for the poor
2) welfare check every month
3) subsidized energy
4) low income housing
5) .....
cheap energy made economic surplus possible.
and economic surplus made the middle class feel wealthy enough to pay taxes to literally give the poor a free handout. That will end.

PO == the end of "social welfare liberalism" --> socialist's "worst nightmare"


That may very well be the case, Cube...I do think the "currently poor", children and the elderly will be first groups of people to be thrown under the bus when hard times hit.

But the point I'm making is the idea of the NEW poor...the current middle classes of the US, UK, Australia, etc moving from a position of relative luxury to being worse off than most poor people of today, probably in less a decade's time. It's *those* people (numbering 200 million or so here in the states, I suppose), that will demand the goods from those who still have money. If anyone thinks there is a huge rift between classes today, it's nothing compared what's to come. You're talking about millions of homeless and tens of millions more about to become that way, no longer able to drive a car or to run the heat / AC, etc...against a backdrop of a few tens of millions that are able to carry on more or less as they are now. Those at the top are really going to look like the creme de la mint of society... or a very tasty-looking sheep in a vast field of hungry wolves to look at it in a more, um, negative way. :wink:

Granted, one plump sheep ain't gonna feed very many of the wolves, but you get the idea...
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Re: economic and environmental policies you would like to se

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 07 Aug 2008, 15:13:38

Which is why, Mr Bill, in Texas we shoot first and the say ""Drop the gun!"
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Re: economic and environmental policies you would like to se

Unread postby dorlomin » Thu 07 Aug 2008, 17:54:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'Y')ep, the man of reason in a time of crisis is like the guy who stands up to protest at a bank robbery. He gets the first bullet. End of story.
Quote of the day for sure.
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