Peak Oil
Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Over 9000 days????

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
Post a reply

Over 9000 days????

Unread postby Cyrus » Tue 15 Mar 2005, 19:27:32

Im reading the scrolling counter and notice that teh USGS date for PO is over 9000 days from now!!! Is this at all acurate???
User avatar
Cyrus
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 647
Joined: Tue 25 Jan 2005, 04:00:00
Top

Unread postby 0mar » Tue 15 Mar 2005, 23:59:53

The USG incorpoates non-technical factors in determing the peak date.
Joseph Stalin
"It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything. "
User avatar
0mar
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1499
Joined: Tue 12 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Davis, California
Top

Unread postby Malthus » Wed 16 Mar 2005, 04:12:00

Well infact USGS prediction is based on probability calculs.
I ll give you an oversimplified example of how they procede. Gologists say there are most probably 200bbl to be found+ 1000bbl found
Now is the moment when statsticians step in (Yes the same that make the cooked GDP, CPI , and job numbers)
So tey say that we have 50% probablity to find 200bbl of oil 30% chance of finding 500bbl, 15% chance of finding 750bbl and get ready 5% chance to find 1000bbl. So they calculate the mathematical expectancy and come up with 412.5 bbl to be found so it adds to 1412.5 bbl And all I know is that there is 5% chance that I am a salamader right....
User avatar
Malthus
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 107
Joined: Sat 15 Jan 2005, 04:00:00
Location: varies
Top

Unread postby Cyrus » Wed 16 Mar 2005, 09:26:46

SO basically inaccurate due to the high chances of it NOT being correct?
User avatar
Cyrus
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 647
Joined: Tue 25 Jan 2005, 04:00:00
Top

Unread postby Aaron » Wed 16 Mar 2005, 09:55:48

USGS estimates a 95% chance we will produce (x) amount of oil, and a 5% chance we will produce (y) amount of oil.

They average the two guesses... & poof...
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

Hazel Henderson
User avatar
Aaron
Resting in Peace
 
Posts: 5998
Joined: Thu 15 Apr 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Houston
Top
Post a reply

Return to Open Topic Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests



cron