Over 9000 days????

by **Cyrus** » Tue 15 Mar 2005, 19:27:32

Im reading the scrolling counter and notice that teh USGS date for PO is over 9000 days from now!!! Is this at all acurate???

by **0mar** » Tue 15 Mar 2005, 23:59:53

The USG incorpoates non-technical factors in determing the peak date.

by **Malthus** » Wed 16 Mar 2005, 04:12:00

Well infact USGS prediction is based on probability calculs.
I ll give you an oversimplified example of how they procede. Gologists say there are most probably 200bbl to be found+ 1000bbl found
Now is the moment when statsticians step in (Yes the same that make the cooked GDP, CPI , and job numbers)
So tey say that we have 50% probablity to find 200bbl of oil 30% chance of finding 500bbl, 15% chance of finding 750bbl and get ready 5% chance to find 1000bbl. So they calculate the mathematical expectancy and come up with 412.5 bbl to be found so it adds to 1412.5 bbl And all I know is that there is 5% chance that I am a salamader right....

by **Cyrus** » Wed 16 Mar 2005, 09:26:46

SO basically inaccurate due to the high chances of it NOT being correct?

by **Aaron** » Wed 16 Mar 2005, 09:55:48

USGS estimates a 95% chance we will produce (x) amount of oil, and a 5% chance we will produce (y) amount of oil.

They average the two guesses... & poof...

Over 9000 days????

Over 9000 days????

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