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Re: Tackeling the Cornocopians

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 21:54:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'T')he Tesla roadster specs:
54,000 watt*hour battery pack
220 mile range
54,000/220 == 245 Wh/mile
The Tesla is a sports car but the range was derived using *normal* driving conditions.
So everyone's going to be able to afford an electric sports car in the future? Cornucopian to say the least! 8O


They're marketing the Roadster to build capital for more affordable models, which you are well aware of. These must be some of those Trollish tactics people are accusing you of? :-D I don't Ignore people but I'm not going to talk to them if they selectively ignore crucial pieces of the puzzle, either.

Mostly mentioned bicycles because cube was griping about someone derailing a thread by bringing them up. :roll: I find it baffling that people want to avoid pedaling. Horrors, exercise.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby cube » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 23:06:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'T')he Tesla roadster specs:
54,000 watt*hour battery pack
220 mile range
54,000/220 == 245 Wh/mile
The Tesla is a sports car but the range was derived using *normal* driving conditions.
So everyone's going to be able to afford an electric sports car in the future? Cornucopian to say the least! 8O

They're marketing the Roadster to build capital for more affordable models, which you are well aware of. These must be some of those Trollish tactics people are accusing you of? :-D

Actually no.
Yesplease is on my ignore list for being a bold face liar.
I never suggested the Tesla car as a viable alternative.
I was using that as an example to point out that yesplease and his 100Wh/mile EV car was a delusional fantasy.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'I') don't Ignore people but I'm not going to talk to them if they selectively ignore crucial pieces of the puzzle, either.
Now you know why I have yesplease on my ignore list.
Look at what he just did....quoting me out of context.
He *tried* to make it look like I was promoting a $100,000 sports car.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby cube » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 23:25:45

To: TheDude

Yesplease knows I have him on my ignore list so I cannot read what he says unless somebody else quotes him like what you just did.
I think it's "hitting below the belt" to talk about somebody behind their back by miss-quoting them knowing they cannot read what is being said.
That type of behavior is what I would expect from a bunch of vindictive beauty pageant contestants backstage. :roll:
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 27 Jul 2008, 00:06:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'T')he Tesla roadster specs:
54,000 watt*hour battery pack
220 mile range
54,000/220 == 245 Wh/mile
The Tesla is a sports car but the range was derived using *normal* driving conditions.
So everyone's going to be able to afford an electric sports car in the future? Cornucopian to say the least! 8O


They're marketing the Roadster to build capital for more affordable models, which you are well aware of. These must be some of those Trollish tactics people are accusing you of? :-D I don't Ignore people but I'm not going to talk to them if they selectively ignore crucial pieces of the puzzle, either.
Supposedly they are, but even then, the lower cost, and likely higher consumption than ~100Wh/mile versions are still about twice what the average car cost in the US is. So, I suppose the better question is, do you really think people as a whole are going to pay $60,000 for an EV when they currently pay ~$30k, or are they going to pay ~$26k for something that suits the vast majority of needs and keep their four door whatever for the ~5-10% of the time they need it? If pointing out that battery costs will have to result in more efficient vehicles in order to keep costs out of the $60-100k area w/ "acceptable" range makes me a troll, then there isn't much to say. Clearly we're all going to find an extra $30k+ (Not including higher electricity/battery costs that would drive the differential higher) in our pocket books to fund vehicle purchases... ;)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'M')ostly mentioned bicycles because cube was griping about someone derailing a thread by bringing them up. :roll: I find it baffling that people want to avoid pedaling. Horrors, exercise.
Bikes are great for exercise/trip combos, but as efficient transportation that ~10:1 fossil fuel:food ratio is killer. Enough to make the average efficient EV (Aptera/e-scooter/e-bike/etc) more efficient than the average cyclist. Granted, this can be altered w/ a change in diet, lotsa potatoes/no more meat, and potentially farming practices, but it is what it is right now.
Last edited by yesplease on Sun 27 Jul 2008, 00:34:33, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 27 Jul 2008, 00:22:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'T')his is not an innocent accident.
He knows 100Wh/mile is unrealistic.
I've explained "Battery pack capacity to vehicle range" to him previously.
I don't like lies being spread around.
I think it severely diminishes the quality of this message board.
You're right 100Wh/mile is unrealistic, the Aptera Typ-1 only needs ~60-80Wh/mile at 55mph. :P
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 's')ome sample calcs:
EV1 compact car specs
18,700 Wh
75 mile range
19,700/75 == 250 Wh/mile

Phoenix SUV specs
35,000 Wh
over 100+ miles per charge
35,000/100+ == 350 Wh/mile (or less)

Or how about going straight to the source?
Here's the specs from someone who actually owns an EV car!
1992 Honda Civic
210 Wh/Mile - From the pack
In terms of cost, the only thing more affordable would be the Civic, unless you really think that people can buy a car that isn't produced or one that's marked for ~$50,000 in 2010. As for the Civic, the problem w/ using a relatively inefficient LA battery would be costs in that arena. Not that isn't possible, just that paying twice as much for electricity and more than twice as much for batteries per mile erodes any cost savings compared to alternatives.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'S')ome people here do not like my "style", but I have a solid reputation on this forum. I back up my stats with real cars that actually exist TODAY and not some *future production model* :roll:
The EV1 isn't being made anymore, the Phoenix SUV won't be available until 2010, and the Civic is a one off. The closest to production is Aptera's initial model I was referring to. The only "real" car that's going to be available to the consumer before 2010 is the Aptera Typ-1 at ~60-80Wh/mile. :)

[video width=400 height=350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUhPaxvhJCI&feature=related[/video]
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 27 Jul 2008, 00:33:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'R')egardless of whose or of which pie-in-the-sky, I'm extremely bearish on a technology that will economically replace fossil fuel in the near term and without side-effects. Even if there is an EV that consumes 1kWh, then the problem will only get worse. Everybody will want to have that EV, and people are going to drive and destroy even more. Think about that. Technology is not necessary our friend.
In terms of economic replacement, that depends more on consumer attitudes than anything AFAIK. We had ~70-100mpg cars in the 50s, so we've chosen, w/ a bit of careful encouragement by certain groups, to throw copious amounts of amounts of cash down the drain. Which, granted, is our choice, but it isn't any fault of technology. It's just a tool, and has no say in the matter. Anything else is nothing more than anthropomorphism. Now, as for the impact of automobiles, compared to alternatives, they seem to do more harm than good, ~$300-1,700 billion/year worth, not counting ~$600 billion/year in fuel costs, so higher prices that encourage a reduction in their externalized costs may not be so bad IMO. I guess that on the flip-side, I'm extremely bearish of the notion that current transportation methods for the most part were ever economically viable to anyone but those making big bucks off of them. :)
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby Ghog » Sun 27 Jul 2008, 11:01:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ')I guess that on the flip-side, I'm extremely bearish of the notion that current transportation methods for the most part were ever economically viable to anyone but those making big bucks off of them. :)


I agree wholeheartedly!

It seems much of the debate on energy and it's relation to transportation is on the vehicles themselves. I truly believe a bigger problem is the infrastructure and the costs (energy and financial) to maintain them.

How many bridges are in disrepair? How much fuel is wasted mowing the medians/shoulders of these roads? Why is it every time I see construction going on there are 3 guys standing around and 1 guy actually working? Why are roads being resurfaced that don't need it when that same road across the county line does?

This is waste at its finest.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby vilemerchant » Sun 27 Jul 2008, 18:12:05

Yesplease, I think you're overdoing the economics of EVs for everyone. The whole point of them is that they don't use massive amounts of oil to get around, not that they can be affordable for the millions of Americans to continue their current driving lifestyles in. These early EVs will be for those who CAN afford to keep driving, and the reason the poor won't continue to drive their old ICE cars is because there won't be any gas available to do so. Petroleum products will eventually have to be quarantined for trucking, shipping, agriculture and public transport.

The poor will ride the bus or their bike, the days of personal transport for all and sundry will be over.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby cube » Sun 27 Jul 2008, 20:59:17

To: vilemerchant
I encourage anyone who is serious to do their own homework and trust NO ONE. Not even me.
1) listen to everyone
2) do your own homework
3) sort out who is being truthful and who likes to "over-inflate" things

here's a good photo-album of EV converted cars
http://www.evalbum.com/

You'll notice, very quickly in less than 5 minutes, that half the cars have a range of 40miles per charge or even less!
I've said it before no technology has been "over-inflated" more times then EV cars.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby lper100km » Mon 28 Jul 2008, 10:53:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lper100km', 'A') small vehicle, rating 50mpg requires 36,000Wh. That’s for a gasoline engine with an overall tank to wheel efficiency of a generous 35%. An equivalent EV using the same vehicle body and driving pattern, should achieve around 90% efficiency, battery pack to wheels, maybe even slightly better. This calculates out to around 14,000 Wh or 280Wh per mile.


I forgot to add in the battery charging inefficiencies. A huge amount of energy in charging is lost to heat, so unless this is recaptured in some way, this represents another loss. If an optimistic charging efficiency of 65% is achieved, then the energy consumption increases to 430kWh per mile. The equivalent gasoline engine performance is 720kWh per mile.

So, at a superficial level, an EV is approx 67% more energy efficient than an equivalent gasoline powered vehicle. What should be added in each case, is the energy needed to produce a 36,000kW energy by the extraction, refining and delivery process for gasoline and to produce 21,500kW by the generation process for electrical power. This would give a more complete statement of the overall power consumed to drive one mile down the hiway. I do not have access to those numbers unfortunately.

The underlying assumption is that 'normal' driving speeds are being achieved. 100kWh per mile will get you there, just at 15mph, not 65mph.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby lper100km » Mon 28 Jul 2008, 13:33:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lper100km', '
')So, at a superficial level, an EV is approx 67% more energy efficient than an equivalent gasoline powered vehicle. What should be added in each case, is the energy needed to produce a 36,000kW energy by the extraction, refining and delivery process for gasoline and to produce 21,500kW by the generation process for electrical power. This would give a more complete statement of the overall power consumed to drive one mile down the hiway. I do not have access to those numbers unfortunately.

The underlying assumption is that 'normal' driving speeds are being achieved. 100kWh per mile will get you there, just at 15mph, not 65mph.


I was just being lazy. A few minutes search found these two references which I think can be taken to summarize both the gasoline and electrical energy production overhead.

www.vihrealiitto.fi/yleviarkisto/11...

It's in Finnish! Here's a summary:
This was meant to account for the fossil energy used to extract, transport and manufacture the raw material (crude oil) into the final energy product (gasoline).. According to the study, gasoline has an energy ratio of 0.805. In other words, for every unit of energy dedicated to the production of gasoline there is a 19.5 percent energy loss.

http://www.aph.gov.au/library/Pubs/rn/1 ... 99rn21.htm

This is a comprehensive Australian study, showing that with the proper design, efficiencies of up to 80% can be achieved in the conversion of fossil fuel to electrical energy.


Hydro and nuclear generation plants would show significantly higher efficiencies. I’m estimating at say 95%.

For the purposes of my posts, I will ignore hydro and nuclear, and say that the energy overhead for the production of both gasoline and electrical power is 20%.

Thus the total energy required for one US gall of gasoline is 45,000kW
The total energy consumed for an equivalent battery charge to operate an equivalent auto at 50mpg is 27,000kW

The gross energy per mile for gasoline is 900kW and could well be higher
The gross energy per mile for electrical is 538kW and could go lower.

Electrical power turns out to be 67% more energy efficient overall than gasoline and could go higher on average. All in rounded numbers and generalized assumptions.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby yesplease » Tue 29 Jul 2008, 20:01:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vilemerchant', 'Y')esplease, I think you're overdoing the economics of EVs for everyone. The whole point of them is that they don't use massive amounts of oil to get around, not that they can be affordable for the millions of Americans to continue their current driving lifestyles in.
Given current expenditures on autos I don't see why they can't be both. For instance, w/ gas at $4/gallon, while the Aptera may be $5500 more than the Prius, over 120,000 miles it'll use ~$8,000 less in fuel costs, and a grand or so less in routine servicing like oil changes. The larger the interval we look at, the larger the cost difference between EVs and typical cars becomes. Furthermore, EVs provide the consumer insulation against further oil price increases.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vilemerchant', 'T')hese early EVs will be for those who CAN afford to keep driving, and the reason the poor won't continue to drive their old ICE cars is because there won't be any gas available to do so. Petroleum products will eventually have to be quarantined for trucking, shipping, agriculture and public transport.

The poor will ride the bus or their bike, the days of personal transport for all and sundry will be over.
That's true. Just like E-bikes/scooters, and $100k electric sports cars will provide for all sorts of consumer nuches. That being said, given current vehicle purchases, even if GDP drops 25% like it did during the great depression, the same people who could afford a $30k vehicle that averages 17mpg and costs $28k to fuel up for 120k miles will be able to afford a $27k vehicle that costs $2k to fuel for 120k miles. With everything in between of course, including moving closer to work, working closer to home, cycling, public transit, etc...

In any event, given that GDP would have to be cut in more than half for the average American consumer to not be able to afford current limited production EVs I doubt that cost will be a problem. Possibly production numbers, but even then, Americans seemed to weather $2/gallon gas fairly well, so doubling the vehicle fleet mileage to deal with $4/gallon gas certainly isn't impossible. EVs will just be an option like others that consumers can choose if they wish to reduce the amount of income spent on transportation costs.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 29 Jul 2008, 23:59:22

cube wrote:

"Yesplease knows I have him on my ignore list so I cannot read what he says unless somebody else quotes him like what you just did. I think it's "hitting below the belt" to talk about somebody behind their back by miss-quoting them knowing they cannot read what is being said."

So this guy puts people on his ignore list right and left and then whines because they're saying things that he can't read!!?? Man, talk about pathetic!

Back on topic--it is my experience as an EV owner that:

a) They are affordable to most now: I got my Zenn for about $12 thousand, far cheeper than most new cars. And as toecutter and others have pointed out, anyone with a modicum of knowhow (more than I have anyway) can build their own for much less.

b) people have to drastically adjust their expectation of what a car is. The behemoths that most have been driving around are almost always absurdly ill suited to the task of dragging their (relatively) puny carcasses around. Hugely inefficient and stupid. Like killing a gnat with a sledge hammer--might get the job done, but sure to cause major colateral dammage.

c) mostly we have to move rapidly away from car culture into living locally, walking and biking most places... Unfortunately, the huge investments in infrastructure to support our ICE-car-centered society make it hard in many places to live without one.

d) good points about energy loss with charging, but in general, these things are hugely more efficient than ICE cars. I pay less than two cents a mile, while even a forty mpg car costs ten cents a mile to run. It's just a much more efficient technology, especially when used at the moderate speeds and ranges needed by most urban people most of the time.

That said, most of us should be going straight to no-car lifestyles. The EV was a compromise position to keep things happy in the family ;-)
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby Nicholai » Wed 30 Jul 2008, 14:52:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat said, most of us should be going straight to no-car lifestyles.


Granted, we will see a 'carless' lifestyle not far into the future. Will we ever see a no-growth lifestyle? A 'no-growth' civilization?

I find that the cornucopians tend to look at peak oil on a 'single issue' basis. They don't look at the big picture. They don't take climate change, peak oil, peak uranium, peak galium etc. and come to the conclusion that things are finite and to prolong this system of growth will simply lead to a fiercer crash (since all rates of decline are always much faster than the increase of supply to begin).

Does anyone have any figures for how many barrels of oil are currently being produced by algae?
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby VMarcHart » Wed 30 Jul 2008, 14:57:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', 'W')ill we ever see a no-growth lifestyle? A 'no-growth' civilization?
If you mean population, financial wealth, etc ... oh yeah, babe!
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby Nicholai » Wed 30 Jul 2008, 15:30:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')arbage in-Garbage out.


George Carlin fan?
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby Nicholai » Wed 30 Jul 2008, 15:32:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is not just peak stuff that we are coming up against. It is peak planet earth, peak entropic sink, peak population, peak people.


Just the response I was looking for.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')one. Nada. Pipe (as in crack) dream. Investment scam. Sheer unadulterated nonsence. Garbage in-Garbage out. Thermodepolymerated horsepucky.


I figured as much.
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Re: Tackling the Cornucopians

Unread postby outcast » Fri 01 Aug 2008, 23:34:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat said, most of us should be going straight to no-car lifestyles.


Granted, we will see a 'carless' lifestyle not far into the future. Will we ever see a no-growth lifestyle? A 'no-growth' civilization?

I find that the cornucopians tend to look at peak oil on a 'single issue' basis. They don't look at the big picture. They don't take climate change, peak oil, peak uranium, peak galium etc. and come to the conclusion that things are finite and to prolong this system of growth will simply lead to a fiercer crash (since all rates of decline are always much faster than the increase of supply to begin).

Does anyone have any figures for how many barrels of oil are currently being produced by algae?



Sorry, peak galium and peak many other metals isn't happening now and wont happen for a long, long, long while. According to the Club of Rome in the 70's, we were supposed to be out of many metals by now.
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